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Join Us at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida! Nov. 17-19, 2023

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Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

  1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
  2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
  3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
  4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
  5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
  6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
  7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
  8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
  9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
  10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

NEW BOOK Now Available : "Mark Antony & Cleopatra"

Mark Antony Cleopatra Cleopatra Proxy War

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

"THE PLOT TO SEIZE RUSSIA - THE UNTOLD HISTORY"

The Plot to Seize Russia_3Dmockup_2 300x225

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

China and Russia Condemn US Military Action in Iran

China.Russia.Putin_.Xi_

Both Moscow and Beijing immediately condemned the strike on Iran, not in emotional rhetoric, but in the language of sovereignty, international law, and regime change.

Russia did not mince words. Moscow labeled the attack a “pre-planned and unprovoked act of armed aggression” and warned it could plunge the Middle East into a humanitarian and economic catastrophe. Putin described the operation as unprovoked aggression and even a violation of international law. Russia is signaling that regime change operations are viewed as a direct threat to the global balance of power, not just a regional military action.

China’s response was equally sharp. Beijing declared the strike a “grave violation of Iran’s sovereignty and security” and stated it “firmly opposes and strongly condemns” the attack while calling the killing of a sovereign leader “unacceptable.” China understands that if regime change becomes normalized, no major power is insulated from that doctrine.

Putin Xi

Even more significant was the joint coordination between China and Russia. Their foreign ministers condemned the operation together, calling it aggression that violates the UN Charter and explicitly rejecting policies aimed at overthrowing sovereign governments. Foreign Minister Lavrov labeled the operation a “deliberate, premeditated, and unprovoked act of armed aggression.” When you see diplomatic alignment before military alignment, it signals a shift in geopolitical blocs rather than an isolated event.

Russia offering to mediate while condemning the attack is strategic. China’s call for a ceasefire and negotiation is strategic. Neither is rushing into direct confrontation because their objective is not immediate war — it is long-term geopolitical repositioning. A prolonged Middle East conflict diverts US military resources and disrupts global energy markets.

What is critical here is that both nations framed the strike in terms of sovereignty and regime change rather than terrorism or religion. That aligns directly with the thesis outlined in my latest report, which argues that the real objective behind such conflicts is regime restructuring rather than religious confrontation. The rhetoric from Moscow and Beijing confirms they are interpreting this through the lens of strategic destabilization, not ideological warfare.

The real danger is not an immediate world war. The greater risk is a prolonged proxy escalation. Russia and China will not directly confront the United States militarily in the Middle East. But both will exploit the instability. This is no longer just a Middle East conflict. It is rapidly evolving into a geopolitical pivot, and the reactions from China and Russia confirm that they are already positioning for a long-term strategic confrontation, not a short-term regional war.

Iranians Divided Over Regime Change

Irans Iron Fist

The Western press is desperately trying to frame the Iranian people as either celebrating liberation or rallying behind their government. As always, the truth is far more complex. The Iranian population is deeply divided, and that division is precisely what unfolds when an external military strike hits a nation already suffering from internal political and economic stress.

Reports from inside Iran confirm that reactions are polarized. Some citizens were seen cheering, dancing, and even celebrating quietly after leadership figures were targeted, while others remained in shock and fear amid ongoing bombardments and heavy security presence. The same population that despises the regime is simultaneously terrified of war.

Life inside Tehran has been described as surreal, with residents watching the bombings from rooftops while taking shelter during blasts, illustrating a population balancing moments of relief with deep anxiety. At the same time, panic buying, evacuations, and clogged highways show that fear, not celebration, dominates daily civilian behavior.

The regime’s information control has led to mass confusion. Internet blackouts and communication shutdowns have been used repeatedly to isolate the population, suppress dissent, and prevent organized reactions. The people are unable to easily access information in real time, and the fear of the unknown has led to mass panic. No one wants war. The people have been told that the US is attacking the people of Iran rather than the government.

There are also documented cases of civilians celebrating the strikes and even toppling regime symbols. Yet, simultaneously, pro-government demonstrations and rallies have also been reported, showing that ideological loyalty, nationalism, and fear of foreign intervention still exist. People can hate their government and still reject foreign intervention at the same time. Analysts already note that while some Iranians are cautiously hopeful for change, many fear harsher repression or prolonged instability if the conflict escalates.

The real takeaway is not that the Iranian people are celebrating or mourning in unison. They are fragmented. Some see a potential end to decades of authoritarian rule. Others see the beginning of war, economic collapse, and national destabilization. Most ordinary civilians are not thinking in ideological terms at all. The majority are simply scared and thinking about safety, food, family, and survival.

A divided population under attack does not produce immediate revolution. It produces uncertainty, fear, and a temporary consolidation of internal power structures. And that is exactly the pattern now emerging inside Iran.

Canada’s Economy Shrinks by 0.6% in Q4 2025

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Canada’s economy contracting by 0.6% in the fourth quarter should not be dismissed as a minor statistical fluctuation. Statistics Canada confirmed that GDP shrank at an annualized pace of 0.6% in Q4 2025, coming in well below expectations and marking the slowest annual growth since the COVID era, with full-year growth at just 1.7%.

What is particularly telling is not just the contraction itself, but the composition of that decline. Businesses drew down inventories by over C$23 billion instead of producing new goods, while residential investment also fell sharply, including a notable drop in housing and construction activity. Canada has been moving into stall speed for months. Monthly GDP was already flat into the end of the year, with manufacturing weakness and goods-producing sectors dragging on growth, confirming that the slowdown was not sudden but structural.

This fits perfectly with what I have warned about regarding highly leveraged Western economies that depend heavily on housing, commodities, and government spending to sustain growth. When inventory drawdowns replace production, it signals that businesses lack confidence in future demand. They are not expanding. They are liquidating stock to survive uncertain conditions.

Even more concerning is the decline in residential investment. Canada’s economy has been disproportionately tied to real estate and debt expansion for years. Once housing begins to soften, the ripple effect spreads across construction, banking, consumer spending, and provincial revenues. The data already shows spending on homes and condos declining in the same quarter GDP contracted.

The mainstream will attempt to spin this as a temporary inventory adjustment. That is surface-level analysis. Inventory depletion during weak growth phases reflects declining. Companies do not reduce inventories during a boom, rather, they reduce inventories when they fear demand ahead.

What we are witnessing is not a dramatic crash, but a slow erosion of economic momentum. Canada already saw volatility throughout 2025, including prior quarterly contractions and weak manufacturing output, indicating that growth has been unstable and heavily dependent on external trade and government support.

Macron Makes Move to Replace US in Europe

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I have warned that Macron harbors the idea that France will lead Europe fulfilling Napoleon’s dream. Now he has offered to station his nuclear-armed aircraft to allied countries to replace the US and NATO as part of his nuclear strategy designed to assert Europe’s independence breaking away from the United States.

As reported by the LA Times, Macron has boasted that France will replace the United States and will “provide for the temporary deployment of elements of our strategic air forces to allied countries,” but quickly added that he will not share any decision-making with any other nation regarding the use of France’s nuclear weapons. Sources there in the EU, say this is typical Macron always pushing for war with Russia and replacing the USA and NATO in Europe.

Iran – Hackers & Neocons

Iranian Hacker

COMMENT: Well, it’s easy to see why the neocons do not like you. You warned that regime change cannot be accomplished from the air. It will take boots on the ground. Trump just said that this war with Iran could last weeks and he just admitted he may have to send in American ground troops. Your scope of history is unmatchable while their’s is as you say these people’s view of history extends only to the previous week.

Thank you for being the voice of reason in the middle of fake news.

JD

QUESTION: Marty, if I recall, did they use to say there were Iranian hackers infiltrating US systems over the past few years?

Adam

Nerocon Every Administration

ANSWER: People have to wake up. They always blame the president never the UNELECTED people infiltrating our foreign policy for their own objective no matter who is the president. The Neocons broke Bretton Woods and the gold standard with the Vietnam war. If you look at the national debt, the bulk of it has been to fund these Neocon wars. We are still paying interest of World War I and II. It is the Neocons who are destroying our country with their endless wars.

Albright thanking Troops
Madeleine Albright was another ruthless Neocon. She was compromised by her ethnic prejudices growing up in Czechoslovakia. She was a refugee from Czechoslovakia twice, first from the Nazis and then from the Russian Communists. For some reason, people forgave the Germans for the atrocities of the Nazis. However, to this day, they refuse to let go of the hatred of Russian Communists of the days when Stalin ruled.

Czechs and Serbs are distinct ethnic groups, each with its own language, culture, and historical background. Albright’s family was of Czech Jewish descent, though they converted to Catholicism. She was Czech and spoke Czech at home. Focusing on the Bosnian War (1992-1995), Albright was the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. In this role, she was a central figure in the US foreign policy cabinet. However, she was an incredibly powerful and vocal advocate for military intervention, and her influence was a critical factor in pushing the United States and NATO into decisive military intervention in a non-NATO region, bombing Serbs since they were pro-Russia between March 24th, 1999, and June 10th, 1999, all because of her disdain for Serbs and their ties to Russia. She chose sides: Croats vs. Serbs (Catholics vs. Orthodox).

Albright was the administration’s most prominent “hawk” by every means possible. She argued constantly, passionately, and consistently for lifting the arms embargo on the Bosnian Muslims and for using decisive NATO air power to crush the Serbian forces and what she called their atrocities. She famously clashed with many officials. It was clear that her ethnic hatred of Serbs and Russians, in fact, colored her decisions.

In a pivotal 1993 meeting, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Colin Powell (1937–2021) clashed with Albright. Powell was against military action and put forth the “Powell Doctrine,” emphasizing the need for overwhelming force and a clear exit strategy before committing troops. The core of the disagreement with Madeleine Albright, Powell himself recounted in his memoir, My American Journey published 2003, about her challenging Powell, who was then Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, by asking,

“What’s the point of having this superb military you’re always talking about if we can’t use it?”

Powell’s reaction was one of deep concern. He saw it as a fundamental misunderstanding of the military’s purpose. He stated that military force should be used only as a last resort and with clear political objectives. Albright was just a Neocon who thought nothing of the lives lost. This is typical of a Neocon who does not care for even their country or the people. These people seem to have a personal vindetta and gravitate to a position of power to exercise their personal biases.

Now, the State Department has just warned Americans to leave ALL nations in the Middle East. They know they just stepped into one hell of a pile of shit. I had hoped that Trump would have ended these Neocon Wars. Once he installed Marco Rubio, I was told it was an olive branch to the Neocons. They do not care about Trump or his legacy. They know the president is always blamed for their actions. They are the real UNTOUCHABLES moving from one administration to the next. I believe there may have been 10 people in Congress who were anti-war. I think that they have been threatened by the Neocons and that is down to just two.

 

This all reminds me of that famous line from Laurel & Hardy – another fine mess you got us into.

The Iranians have been hacking Israel and Persian Gulf countries. It is just a matter of weeks when they will turn on the United States I would suspect by mid-month. Then we will see how much they have already infiltrated.

Market Talk – March 2, 2026

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:
• NIKKEI 225 decreased 793.03 points or -1.35% to 58,057.24
• Shanghai increased 19.709 points or 0.47% to 4,182.591
• Hang Seng decreased 570.69 points or -2.14% to 26,059.85
• ASX 200 increased 2.30 points or 0.03% to 9,200.90
• SENSEX decreased 1,048.34 points or -1.29% to 80,238.85
• Nifty50 decreased 312.95 points or -1.24% to 24,865.70
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD decreased 0.00427 or -0.60% to 0.70726
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00658 or -1.10% to 0.59322
• USDJPY increased 1.373 or 0.88% to 157.434
• USDCNY increased 0.0413 or 0.60% to 6.90470
The above data was collected around 12:46 EST.
Precious Metals:
• Gold increased 26.71 USD/t oz. or 0.51% to 5,304.72
• Silver decreased 6.271 USD/t. oz. or -6.68% to 87.546
The above data was collected around 12:51 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a negative day today:
• CAC 40 decreased 186.43 points or -2.17% to 8,394.32
• FTSE 100 decreased 130.44 points or -1.20% to 10,780.11
• DAX 30 decreased 611.86 points or -2.42% to 24,672.40
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
• EURUSD decreased 0.01066 or -0.90% to 1.17051
• GBPUSD decreased 0.0068 or -0.50% to 1.34152
• USDCHF increased 0.0083 or 1.08% to 0.77837
The above data was collected around 12:58 EST.
NORTH AMERICA:

US/AMERICAS:

  • Dow declined by 73.14 points (-0.15%) to 48,904.78

  • S&P 500 advanced by 2.74 points (+0.04%) to 6,881.62

  • NASDAQ advanced by 80.65 points (+0.36%) to 22,748.857

  • Russell 2000 advanced by 23.58 points (+0.90%) to 2,655.944

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced by 201.28 points (+0.59%) to 34,541.27

  • TSX 60 advanced by 14.38 points (+0.73%) to 1,986.33

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced by 529.77 points (+0.28%) to 189,316.75

ENERGY:
The oil markets had a green day today:
• Crude Oil increased 3.364 USD/BBL or 5.02% to 70.384
• Brent increased 3.947 USD/BBL or 5.42% to 76.817
• Natural gas increased 0.0785 USD/MMBtu or 2.75% to 2.9375
• Gasoline increased 0.0487 USD/GAL or 2.12% to 2.3503
• Heating oil increased 0.2725 USD/GAL or 10.50% to 2.8685
The above data was collected around 13:02 EST.
• Top commodity gainers: Heating Oil (10.50%), Brent (5.42%), Methanol (5.68%) and Butter (5.95%)
• Top commodity losers: Wheat (-2.94%), Orange Juice (-4.73%), Nickel (-2.58%) and Silver (-6.68%)
The above data was collected around 13:10 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 2.0650% (-4.73bp), US 2’s 3.50% (+0.111%), US 10’s 4.0570% (+10.5bps); US 30’s 4.70 (+0.084%), Bunds 2.7127% (+6bp), France 3.2900% (+7.16bp), Italy 3.3570% (+7.83bp), Turkey 28.580% (+38bp), Greece 3.338% (+3.7bp), Portugal 3.086% (+7.5bp); Spain 3.134% (+7bp) and UK Gilts 4.3110% (+7.74bp)
The above data was collected around 13:20 EST.

PRIVATE BLOG – Gold into the Eye of the Neocons

PRIVATE BLOG

PRIVATE BLOG – Gold into the Eye of the Neocons


Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or to learn more, please visit Ask-Socrates.com.

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Will Mortgage Rates Crash and Spur a Real Estate Boom?

Housing

Everyone keeps asking if mortgage rates will collapse in 2026 as if the entire real estate market revolves around the Federal Reserve pulling a lever. That is simply not how the system actually functions. Mortgage rates are tied to long-term capital flows and the 10-year yield, not just whatever the Fed does at the short end. This obsession with rate cuts magically reviving housing is a complete misunderstanding of the cycle.

Everyone is obsessing over mortgage rates dipping below 6% in early 2026 and assuming that this alone will thaw the housing market, but the data coming in right now tells a very different story that aligns far more closely with the cyclical model than the mainstream narrative. The 30-year mortgage has indeed slipped to roughly 5.98%, the lowest level since 2022, largely following declines in the 10-year yield and bond market volatility.

We are coming out of an abnormal period where rates were artificially suppressed during an emergency liquidity phase. The 2–3% mortgage era was never sustainable. That was not the free market. That was crisis policy. Historically, when governments accumulate massive debt and confidence in fiscal management declines, long-term rates do not just collapse because policymakers wish them to. Capital begins to demand a risk premium.

Even if mortgage rates drift slightly lower into 2026, that does not translate into a housing boom. Real estate is a confidence asset far more than an interest-rate asset. I have repeatedly stated that taxes, regulation, insurance costs, and economic uncertainty weigh more heavily on property than a modest move in borrowing costs. You can lower rates and still have a stagnant housing market if people are worried about jobs, inflation in living costs, and the long-term direction of the economy.

The mainstream narrative assumes that lower rates automatically equal higher demand. That was true during the liquidity bubble, but bubbles distort historical relationships. Into 2026, the issue is not just the cost of borrowing. The variables now include declining confidence in government policy, rising debt burdens, and structural costs associated with ownership. Those factors do not disappear with a half-point decline in mortgage rates.

So no, the model does not support a dramatic collapse in mortgage rates in 2026. At best, you may see stabilization or modest easing, but not a return to the artificially low levels of the post-crisis period. The bigger risk is that people are focusing on interest rates while ignoring the true driver of real estate: confidence. And when confidence is under pressure, even lower rates fail to produce the boom everyone is expecting.

Deep State Surveillance – Government is Under Watch

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has now alleged that officials inside her own department secretly installed spyware on her government phone and computer, claiming the software was used to record meetings and monitor internal communications. She stated that outside technical specialists examined departmental devices and identified suspicious software downloads that appeared to function as surveillance tools. In her telling, the same spyware was not limited to her alone but was allegedly found on the devices of multiple political appointees, suggesting a broader internal breach rather than an isolated incident.

Once the issue surfaced, staff members believed to be involved were brought in, questioned, polygraphed, and ultimately dismissed after the alleged internal spying operation was uncovered. The story becomes even more peculiar when she describes how internal inquiries into department facilities led to the discovery of a secure room containing files and materials that she suggested were not widely known within the leadership structure. Elon Musk had the resources to help Noem identify the responsible parties.

“I always believed when people talked about the deep state before that it existed: I never would have dreamed that it was as bad as it is,” she said. “I’m still every day trying to dig out people who don’t love America, not just [those] who work at this department, but also work throughout the federal government, Kristi Noem stated.

The so-called “Deep State” is not some theatrical villain standing at a podium, nor is it the elected figure you see on television, nor even the president of the United States. That is political theater. The real machinery of government has always been institutional, bureaucratic, and self-preserving. It does not change with elections because it is not elected. It survives administrations the way empires survive emperors.

They say the Deep State is Trump, or Biden, or whoever is currently in office. That misses the mark entirely. The permanent state is the institutional class: career agencies, intelligence networks, embedded contractors, regulatory bodies, and unelected policy architects who remain in place regardless of election cycles. Presidents come and go. Bureaucracies do not. That is the cycle of governance that I have explained repeatedly where institutions always outlive leaders.

The Deep State often operates in plain sight. As Noem reported:

“I just found the other day a whole room on this [DHS headquarters] campus that was a secret SCIF secure facility [Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility] that had files nobody knew existed. So we just happened to have an employee walk by a door and wonder what it was. Started asking questions. We went there. There was individuals working there that had secret files that nobody knew about on some of these most controversial topics, like that. And now I’ve got that turned over to attorneys, and we’re getting to the bottom of what exactly happened there.”

Federal agencies are controlled by the Deep State without their knowledge. True power does not exist in a political party, and it certainly does not exist among elected officials. The government watches us, and the Deep State watches the government. The permanent Deep State will always seek to control the government, which in turn controls the people.

Iran Claims it Struck the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier

Aircraft Carrier 3

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has announced that they struck the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier with four ballistic missiles. Their statement read:

“The powerful strikes by the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran against the exhausted military body of the enemy have entered a new phase, and land and sea will become an ever greater graveyard for terrorist aggressors.”