Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

Jerome Powell finally said out loud what the revisions have been quietly showing for months. During his March 18 press conference, Powell said that “effectively there’s zero net job creation in the private sector” over roughly the past six months after adjusting for what Fed staff view as overstatement in the payroll data. He added that the economy appears to be in a “zero employment growth equilibrium,” which he tied to virtually nonexistent labor-force growth. Those comments came directly from the Fed chair, not from some critic on the sidelines, and they confirm the broader point I have made repeatedly that the headline payroll numbers are often political theater until the revisions arrive and reveal the truth.

This is precisely the problem with how governments sell economic data. The first number is always used for propaganda, while the revised number is where reality begins to emerge. The official February jobs report showed payrolls falling by 92,000, while December was revised down from a gain of 48,000 to a loss of 17,000 and January was trimmed to 126,000. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also said December and January combined were 69,000 lower than previously reported, and earlier benchmark revisions had already reduced 2025 payroll growth materially. Powell was not inventing a new concern. He was simply acknowledging that the labor market has been far weaker than the government wanted to admit.

If you step back from the monthly headlines, the underlying data has been deteriorating for some time. JOLTS showed January openings rising to 6.946 million, but hiring was still only 5.294 million and the hires rate held at 3.3%. Reuters noted that total hiring in 2025 fell by 1.5 million to 63.0 million. Weekly claims remain relatively low, which is why the unemployment rate has not exploded, but low layoffs do not mean strong growth. They simply mean companies are hesitant to fire aggressively while also refusing to hire.

ADP has been telling a similar story. Private employers added only 22,000 jobs in January and 63,000 in February, hardly the sort of numbers you would expect if the economy were booming. Even Powell admitted that a good part of the labor slowdown reflects weaker labor-force growth due to lower immigration and participation. In other words, the economy is stagnant.

I have written many times that governments always hide behind statistics until the cycle forces the truth into the open. This is why I have been skeptical of the jobs numbers for years, because they are heavily model-driven, politically celebrated on release day, and then quietly revised when nobody is looking. BLS even changed its CES birth-death methodology beginning with January 2026 to modify first preliminary estimates, which shows just how dependent these reports are on assumptions about business formation and death rather than hard counts in real time. Meanwhile, analysis based on QCEW tax records, which many regard as the gold standard because it is built from unemployment insurance filings, has suggested the BLS materially overstated job growth during 2025.

Powell still described the economy as “solid,” but he also conceded that job gains have remained low and that the labor force is no longer expanding in the way the country has historically relied upon. When the Fed chair is openly admitting there is effectively no private-sector job creation, that is not a minor footnote. That is the sort of statement that appears at the end of a trend, not the beginning.

The bigger problem is that this comes while inflation is still above target. Powell said headline PCE was about 2.8% and core PCE about 3.0%, while the Fed kept rates at 3.5% to 3.75% and projected unemployment at 4.4% by year end. That means the Fed is trapped. It cannot aggressively ease if inflation is still elevated, and it cannot pretend the labor market is healthy if job creation is flat to negative beneath the revisions. This is how central banks lose control, because they are always fighting the last problem while the next one is already in motion.

What Powell said matters because it strips away the fantasy that everything is fine so long as the unemployment rate has not surged. A labor market with little hiring, downward revisions, weak private payroll growth, and nonexistent labor-force expansion is not a healthy market. It is a market marking time. Governments always celebrate the first estimate and bury the revision because confidence management has become the real product they sell. Powell just admitted that the product is no longer matching reality.

California lawmakers are now advancing a measure that would allow race-based preferences in financial aid, which is remarkable when you consider that the state constitution has explicitly prohibited such practices since 1996. Proposition 209 banned the state from granting “preferential treatment” based on race in public education, employment, and contracting, yet once again, we see politicians attempting to work around that restriction rather than respect it.

The proposal is tied to broader reparations efforts and would reintroduce preferential treatment in education through financial aid rather than admissions alone. This follows the 2023 Supreme Court decision that race-based admissions violate the Equal Protection Clause, which was expected to settle the issue legally. Instead, we are seeing the continuation of the same objective under different labels.

This is exactly what I have said repeatedly about DEI. These policies were not abandoned but repackaged. Whether it is affirmative action, diversity initiatives, equity programs, or now financial aid adjustments, the objective remains the same.

Every time government interferes with how resources are distributed, it distorts outcomes. The Department of Justice has already indicated that race-based scholarships and similar programs may violate federal law. That highlights the growing conflict between state-level policy and federal enforcement. Trump was unable to simply dissolve DEI programs when there are far-left politicians ruling at the state level.

DEI has effectively become a mechanism for redistribution and race-based division. Opportunities are no longer granted based on merit. Redistribution merely reallocates existing opportunity within a system that is no longer expanding. Not only is it racist, but it is detrimental to the system at large.

California already attempted to repeal its ban on race-based preferences in 2020, and voters rejected that effort. That should have been a clear signal. Instead, policymakers are pursuing the same objective through alternative channels. When merit is replaced by political allocation, productivity declines and the system weakens over time.

COMMENT: Hello Martin

The outbreak has been centered in Kent and largely tied to a university and a nightclub event, with roughly 27 to 31 total cases and two deaths reported, and while officials have described the clustering as unusual, the broader context is that the UK typically records ongoing cases each year with England reporting roughly 378 cases in the 2024 to 2025 period, meaning this is a known bacterial disease rather than anything new or emerging.

What is actually happening is a localized outbreak of meningococcal disease, primarily the MenB strain, which has existed for decades and tends to spread in close-contact environments. It is not airborne in the way respiratory viruses are, but instead spreads through direct contact. Despite that, the response has begun to follow a familiar pattern where authorities contact tens of thousands of people, expand vaccination programs, and distribute thousands of antibiotic treatments. Universities move activities online and warnings are issued about travel potentially spreading the illness, all of which begins to mirror the behavioral response cycle seen during COVID even though the scale and transmission entirely different.

The comparison is not about the disease itself but about how the situation is being framed and managed, because during COVID, the key issue was not just the virus but the fear-mongering propaganda through constant headlines and policy escalation. Fear is a powerful tool.

When you look at the actual risk assessments, health authorities have stated that the overall risk remains low and that the disease is not easily transmissible. There is already an established vaccine that is effective against the strain involved, which further reinforces that this is a contained public health issue rather than a systemic threat. The media narrative focuses on the most alarming aspects, such as deaths, and uses language like “explosive” or “unprecedented,” which becomes misleading when removed from the statistical facts. Governments use public fear to seize more control, and the cycle repeats.

From the perspective of the Economic Confidence Model, this type of reaction aligns with periods where confidence is declining and governments expand their role in managing outcomes, since public health provides a mechanism through which intervention can be justified, particularly when uncertainty and fear are running high.

Even Gallup Poll has shown that only 38% of Americans were satisfied with the US position in global geopolitics and 61% dissatisfied with the United States’ position in the world BEFORE the military action in Iran. Tulsi Gabbard has refused to confirm any intelligence assassment that presented Iran as an immediate threat. President Trump has publicly and explicitly dismissed intelligence assessments made by his own Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard. He stated that her conclusions were wrong and even said he did not care what she had to say.

The most direct public contradiction occurred in June 2025 regarding Iran’s nuclear program. She said Iran “is not building a nuclear weapon” and has not restarted its weapons program. Trump seems to be listening to Netanyahu who has always insisted that Iran is on the verge of getting a nuclear bomb. Trump stated publicly “they were very close to having one.” Trump has even bluntly and explicitly rejected Gabbard’s assessment, stating, “I don’t care what she said.”

This clash highlights a fundamental tension in how the two assessments. Gabbard’s job is to present the findings of the U.S. Intelligence Community. In her March 2025 testimony, she relayed the official assessment that Iran’s leaders had not authorized a nuclear weapons program. President Trump, who has a long history of distrusting his own intelligence agencies, showed no hesitation in dismissing the official analysis when it conflicted with his own views. The real question is his this a personal conviction or is this a Neocon and Netanyahu insistance?

The disagreement is particularly notable because Gabbard was selected by Trump specifically for her skepticism of the “deep state” and the intelligence establishment, which some analysts believed would make her a loyalist. However, their different views on U.S. intervention in the Middle East led to this public rift.

Since 2002, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has explicitly argued that Iran and others are seeking nuclear weapons and made it always sound as an immediate threat for at least 30 years. Recently, he has claimed invasion was justified even after the 2025 bombing and has used a “months” timeline for Iran’s nuclear program as a key justification for launching the current war, and this pattern of issuing such warnings dates back decades.

On March 2nd, 2026, Prime Minister Netanyahu gave a series of interviews, primarily to Fox News, where he laid out his rationale for the military strikes against Iran that began on February 28. He stated that the attacks were a pre-emptive measure because Iran had begun constructing new, heavily fortified underground bunkers for its nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

His central warning was that these new facilities would become “immune within months,” making a future military strike impossible. “If no action was taken now, no action could be taken in the future,” Netanyahu said, framing the attack as a necessary action to close a closing window of opportunity.

This recent use of a ticking clock is NOT new. According to a historical analysis, Netanyahu has been sounding similar alarms for over 30 years.

Early in his political career back in 1992, Netanyahu told the Israeli parliament that “Iran is close to producing a nuclear weapon within three to five years.”

In a famous 2012 speech at the United Nations, Netanyahu held up a diagram of a bomb and drew a red line, warning that Iran was “a few months, possibly a few weeks” away from having enough enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon.

The 2026 military campaign is the culmination of this long-held position. After years of advocating for a strike, Netanyahu successfully enlisted the support of President Donald Trump to take action. His March 2 interviews explicitly linked the imminent threat of Iran’s “immune” facilities to the necessity of the war he and the U.S. were waging.

However, by late March 2026, Netanyahu’s tone had shifted significantly. After weeks of conflict, he held a press conference declaring victory, stating that “Iran today has no ability to enrich uranium, and no ability to produce ballistic missiles.” He hinted that the war could end “a lot faster than people think,” suggesting that the original justification for the invasion had been achieved.

In 2024, in his Knesset speech, Netanyahu said: “I’ve been warning about Iran for 30 years.”  It was reported on March 3rd, during a visit to a site struck by an Iranian missile, Netanyahu stated: “We read in this week’s Torah portion, ‘Remember what Amalek did to you.’ We remember—and we act.”

In 1 Samuel 15:2-3, God gives King Saul a specific, direct order to carry out this command. The prophet Samuel relays the message: “This is what the LORD Almighty says: ‘I will punish the Amalekites for what they did to Israel when they waylaid them as they came up from Egypt. Now go, attack the Amalekites and totally destroy all that belongs to them. Do not spare them; put to death men and women, children and infants, cattle and sheep, camels and donkeys. ‘”

I have said, I grew up in the Philadelphia area and I know that Netanyahu went to school in Philadelphia and hung out with Irving Kristol, the godfather of the whole Neocon movement. It was Irving’s son, Bill Kristol, who even spoke at one of our WEC events during the ’90s who wrote the book to justify the Iraq War. If I remember correctly, he said taking out Iraq was to secure the future of Israel.

Kristol co-authored the 2003 book The War Over Iraq: Saddam’s Tyranny and America’s Mission with Lawrence F. Kaplan . In this and other writings, he argued for war based on these grounds:

1. Saddam Hussein as a Direct Threat: He argued that Saddam Hussein posed a “grave threat to the United States and its allies,” possessing or seeking weapons of mass destruction that could be used against America.
2. American Global Leadership: He believed the war was necessary to establish a “new American foreign policy” after 9/11 and to shape a new world order.
3. Spreading Democracy: He viewed the removal of Saddam as a step toward spreading democracy in the Middle East, which he argued was in the U.S. national interest.

DOWNLOAD: Clean Break The Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies Jerusalem, Washington

Many have argued that the real, unstated motivation was to eliminate a strategic threat to Israel and reshape the Middle East to its advantage. They often point to Bill Kristol’s leadership in the Project for the New American Century (PNAC) and the group’s 1996 “Clean Break” memo, which advised Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on remaking the regional balance of power. Key figures involved in the PNAC included Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, and other prominent defense and foreign policy neocon hawks who would later become central figures in the George W. Bush administration.

Netanyahu has argued this Clean Break memo by his rhetoric and actions. Kristol’s rebuttal and his allies have explicitly rejected this accusation, calling it a “canard.” They have stated that a stable, democratic Iraq was vital “first and foremost, to American interests” and that the idea they were driven by “dual loyalties” to Israel is false. I do not recall any disregard for Israel and I believe that was the main point.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has explicitly and repeatedly expressed support for a vision of a “Greater Israel.” While he has used the term “New Middle East” less frequently, the geopolitical outcome of his actions, particularly the war on Iran, aligns with that concept as a strategic reality shaped by Israel’s military dominance.

The “Greater Israel” Vision
This concept refers to an expansionist ideology that seeks Israeli control over territory beyond its current borders, often invoking biblical claims to the “Land of Israel.” Netanyahu has openly declared his commitment to this vision. In an August 2025 interview with Israel’s i24NEWS, Netanyahu was directly asked if he subscribes to the “Greater Israel” vision. He responded, “Absolutely… very much.” He described his connection to this vision as a “historic and spiritual mission,” and in a separate interview stated, “I am emotionally connected to the vision of Greater Israel.”

The “Greater Israel” concept, rooted in Revisionist Zionism, claims territory from the Nile River in Egypt to the Euphrates River in Iraq. This would encompass not only all of Israel and the Palestinian territories but also large parts of Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq. His constant attack on Iran has many questioning if this is another weapons of mass destruction lie used for the Iraq War where Americans are sent to die for the dreams of Neocons.

I believe that Trump has been sucked into this game that these Neocons have refused to relinguish and stupidly think that they can conquer the entire Middle East simply because the United States has the largest military force. I have spoken with people who try to help veterans, and they have always said that the vets from Vietnam are angry knowing that their country lied to them compared to the vets from World War II.

I have family members who fought in Iraq and Afghanistan. I lost most of my high school friend to Vietnam another Neocon lie. I believe these disgusting Neocons who are consumed with power and hatred have used Netanyahu to manipulate Trump knowing what I know between the Philadelphia connections when I was just a kid. Benjamin Netanyahu lived in the Cheltenham, located in the suburbs of Philadelphia during two distinct periods. He lived in Cheltenham for elementary school while his father taught at a local college 1956–1958. He then attended Cheltenham High School from 1963 to 1967. Netanyahu was groomed as a Neocon and just because he sought a political career in Israel did not alter his Neocon upbringing.

In any country, you have pro and con forces. There are Evangelicals there in Israel cheering on Armageddon. The Shia Muslims also are acting on the believe that these are the end times. Here we have three religious factions all trying to bring about the end of the world and I do not believe that even Netanyahu represents the majority of Israelis and his action are bringing about the significant destruction of Israel. The Neocons are using Netanyahu to usurp American foreign policy that they were unable to do with the election of Trump.

I have warned that (1) Iran can become a proxy war dragging the USA in deeper and deeper using up its missile inventory. At the same time, this is distracting the Administration from Ukraine and Taiwan. The obvious way to defeat the United States is the way Napoleon was defeated. While fighting on multiple fronts certainly contributed to Napoleon’s downfall, describing his defeat as simply a result of “too many wars” is an oversimplification. The core of the problem was strategic overreach: he initiated massive, unnecessary conflicts that bled his forces dry, which in turn allowed a united coalition of European powers to eventually overwhelm him.

China has adopted what is known as the “All-Dimensional Deterrence outside the island chain.” This is a very clear reference to intercepting any U.S. military forces in the Western Pacific Ocean that might attempt to intervene in Taiwan’s defense against an actual attack. Taiwan is already concerned that the US is going through cruise missiles like water in Iran even bringing assets from other regions to protect Ukraine and now Iran. I am concerned that the arrogance of the Neocons really running this war are clearly blinded for they cannot see that engaging in three wars simultaneously will necessitate resurrecting the draft and will add so much debt, the entire system may come crumbling down post 2028.

Iran’s warning that it will strike energy and water infrastructure across the Persian Gulf if Donald Trump follows through on his threat to destroy its power plants has raised fears of mass disruption in a region heavily dependent on desalination for drinking water. Such an attack on Iran’s electricity may hurt the Iranian people where they hope they will rise up against the government. But such an attack will be potentially catastrophic for its Gulf neighbors, which consume around five times as much power per capita. It is electricity that makes the desert cities habitable, in part by powering the desalination plants that produce 100% of the water consumed in Bahrain and Qatar. Such plants use seawater to meet more than 80% of drinking water needs in the United Arab Emirates, and 50% of the water supply in Saudi Arabia. Donald Trump on Sunday gave Iran 48 hours to fully reopen the vital strait of Hormuz to shipping or face the destruction of its energy infrastructure.

The consequences of that will backfile on Trump for it will drastically cut energy from the Middle East and send prices significantly higher and this will shift the markets that are up to now believing the BS that this will be a short war, So far, it appears Trump might back down, but not for long.

We need someone with a cool head here to prevent a major crisis that will forever change the political landscape post-2032.

QUESTION #1: Marty, will anyone in Washington call Trump and insist that he at least meet with you? You have the only geopolitical computer that has more than a 50 year track record?

QUESTION #2: You also said that  Netanyahu would use at least tactical nukes on Iran. Would you put a probability on that?

QUESTION #3: Martin …

I’ve been an independent trader for 34 years now, but I’m sitting here looking at forward
Crude futures. Currently Dec 2028 futures is 69.91. This seems to be saying “the market” isn’t seeing a prolonged conflict yet Socrates is saying the opposite with potential $200+ Crude.

Dec 2028 Call Options are rediculously cheap.

I’m struggling a bit because we always say “the market is never wrong” . Somehow I cannot help
but feel like at least temporarily the market is wrong.

Interesting times for sure !

So gratefull for you, your team and Socrates !

Allen H

ANSWER: These are some loaded questions. Netanyahu is dead wrong and he has bullshitted Trump and now Trump admit that so we are in a death spiral geopolitically as well as economically. There is absolutely nobody in Washington willing to stick their neck out because they fear they would be fired or not endorsed for the Midterm election.

Iran has responded to Trump’s 48 hour deadline stating it will move to shut down the entire Strait of Hormuz if Trump follows through with his threats to hit Iranian energy facilities. Trump said that the U.S. military would within 48 hours on his social media post Saturday evening that he would

“hit and obliterate [Iran’s] various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST” if Tehran doesn’t fully open the Strait of Hormuz “without threat.” 

Doing that will start the real energy crisis for that will be structural long-term damage not mere short-term rhetoric.  The Iranian Revolutionary Guards said in its statement Sunday that any companies with U.S. shares will be “completely destroyed” if Washington targets Iranian energy facilities. Energy infrastructure of nations that host U.S. military bases will be “lawful” targets, they made clear.

Israeli will use tactical nuclear strikes on Iranian military targets and I would place the probability at 60-75% (likely). The targets will be IRGC bases, missile sites, military command centers. The justification will be a claimed “proportional WMD response, deterring future use.” I do not expect this to be shared with Trump.

However, the forwards are reflecting the rhetoric that they do not expect this war to be a long protracted event. It is the near markets that are never wrong, not the distant forwards. There is also a liquidity crisis where lending has dried up because of war risks and this has led to private selling of gold especially coming from Dubai, yet the central bank increased its gold reserves significantly before the war. This will turn more into a crisis starting in mid April running especially into June. When the perception shifts to realizing this will be a Middle East War that will not go away in just a few weeks, then things will get much more heated.

QUESTION: Could you give an update on this unprecedented war?

BP

ANSWER: Here is the update Socrates has provided.

Back in 1985, the claim that the dollar would crash exist but the theory was that the US would go to a two-tier monetary system. They would make the Eurodollars a separate currency like South Africa had the domestic rand and the financial rand for international commerce. The cash deposits were shifting from external Eurodollars to domestic accounts convinced that to get out of the debt crisis, they would default on external Eurodollars.

Even going back to the 14th century, the city of Florence had a two-tier monetary system where gold was used for international trade and silver was used for domestic transactions including wages.

I explained to our European clients at the time that I might be the only American to even understand their theory about defaulting on Eurodollars thereby making the greenback more valuable.

The US did have a two-tier partial system driven by the fact that China had a different weight standard. Thus, there was the domestic silver dollar with 0.7734 n trou ounces and the Trade Dollars with 0.7875 trou ounces.

For nearly 60 years, all I have heard was how the dollar’s days were numbered and it was going to crash any day now. They even said that Bitcoin would replace the dollar as the reserve currency. The dollar haters will never relent.

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I have not been able to CONFIRM that there was any successfully hit the Dimona nuclear plant, but there have been threats and concerns about potential attacks on it. The situation remains tense, with ongoing military operations and rhetoric between Iran and Israel. The video that was claiming it was destroy was dated March 1st and that was fake news from what I have been able to put together so far.