Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

Reports indicate that a wave of used EVs is beginning to hit the market as leases expire, forcing automakers to rethink how they handle pricing and inventory. What was once sold as the inevitable future is now a dud cause with minimal demand. When those vehicles return to the secondary market, they must compete on price, performance, and practicality, not ideology. That is where the cracks begin to show.

This ties directly into what I have warned about with government attempts to force economic outcomes through policy. The Biden administration pushed aggressively toward electrification under the banner of climate policy and Net Zero, but this was never purely about the environment. It was about directing capital, restructuring industry, and attempting to control long-term consumption patterns. The problem is that markets do not respond to mandates the way politicians expect.

Nearly 4,000 US car dealers warned the Biden Administration that consumer demand would not keep pace with supply. You cannot force consumers into a product they are not ready to adopt, especially in an environment where the cost of living is already rising.

Electric vehicles still account for only about 7–8% of total US vehicle sales, yet federal policy aimed to push that figure toward 50% or more by 2032 through emissions rules that effectively function as mandates. At the same time, EVs remain significantly more expensive, with average transaction prices roughly $8,000 higher than comparable gas vehicles.

Government attempted to accelerate this transition through incentives and mandates. The Inflation Reduction Act introduced tax credits of up to $7,500 per vehicle, effectively subsidizing purchases to stimulate demand. Meanwhile, federal policy called for the entire government fleet to transition to zero-emission vehicles by 2035, impacting hundreds of thousands of vehicles.

You can already see the early signs of that correction in the used EV market. As more vehicles come off lease, prices are under pressure because supply is increasing faster than demand. Automakers are now adjusting strategies, trying to manage resale values and prevent a collapse in pricing. This is the same pattern we have seen in other sectors. When supply is artificially expanded through policy, it eventually overwhelms real demand.

The used car market in general is far beneath the levels witnessed in 2022. EVs are far more difficult to offload. Industry estimates show that more than 300,000 electric vehicles will come off lease in 2026 alone, with projections rising toward 500,000 or more as we move into 2027. This is a surge of supply that the market must absorb whether demand is ready or not.

New EV sales have already dropped 28% year-over-year in early 2026, while used EV sales have risen 12%, reaching nearly 93,500 units in a single quarter. Pricing confirms that shift. Used EV prices have fallen dramatically, in some cases dropping as much as 40% over the past year, and are now within roughly $1,300 of comparable gasoline vehicles. That is a market adjusting to oversupply. When prices fall that quickly, it reflects a mismatch between production and real demand.

Cost, convenience, infrastructure, and reliability all matter more than political objectives. The government will always fail when it attempts to artificially stimulate demand.

Banking crises are often misunderstood because the visible panic comes at the end, not the beginning. The real stress builds beneath the surface. In the United States, banks operate on fractional reserves, meaning deposits are not fully held in cash. They are loaned out, invested, and leveraged.

We saw a glimpse of how fragile this system can be in 2023, when several regional banks failed within days, triggering emergency interventions. The Federal Reserve responded by expanding liquidity facilities, injecting hundreds of billions into the system to stabilize deposits. That response prevented immediate collapse, but it did not eliminate the underlying vulnerability.

The issue is confidence. As long as depositors believe their money is accessible, the system functions. Once that belief is questioned, behavior changes quickly. Withdrawals accelerate. Liquidity tightens. The system comes under pressure.

There are over 4,000 commercial banks in the United States, many of which are exposed to risks tied to interest rates, commercial real estate, and asset valuations. As rates have risen, the value of long-term bonds held by banks has declined, creating unrealized losses across the system. That is a structural problem, not a temporary one.

The next phase of this cycle is not necessarily widespread bank failures. It is restricted access. Withdrawal limits, delays, and policy changes that slow the movement of funds can be implemented quickly if stress emerges. These measures are often presented as stabilizing actions, but they signal a shift in control.

Once people begin to question whether they can access their deposits freely, the system changes. That is when behavior shifts from trust to caution.

China is not reacting to events, it is executing a long-term strategy that has been unfolding quietly for years. The latest data confirms that it continues to accumulate gold month after month as part of a deliberate effort to reduce reliance on the existing monetary system. The People’s Bank of China has now extended its gold buying streak to roughly 15–16 consecutive months, bringing total holdings to approximately 2,300 tonnes, which equates to about 74 million ounces and represents close to 10% of its total reserves, placing it among the largest official holders globally.

This steady accumulation is not a short-term hedge against volatility, it is a structural repositioning that reflects a recognition that the global financial system is built on confidence in sovereign debt, particularly US Treasuries, and that confidence is becoming increasingly fragile as global debt levels exceed $310 trillion. China is not making headlines with dramatic announcements, instead it is quietly converting portions of its reserves into gold, which is the only reserve asset that carries no counterparty risk and cannot be sanctioned or frozen in the same way as foreign currency holdings.

At the same time, global trends reinforce this strategy as central banks worldwide have been buying gold at one of the fastest paces in modern history, often exceeding 800 to 1,000 tonnes annually, while the dollar’s share of global reserves has steadily declined from around 66% to roughly 57% over the past decade. This shift is not driven by ideology but by practicality, because as geopolitical tensions rise and financial systems become increasingly fragmented, nations seek assets that provide independence from external control.

China’s approach is methodical and patient, and that is what makes it significant because it is not waiting for a crisis to unfold, it is preparing in advance by building a reserve base that can withstand a loss of confidence in sovereign debt markets. This aligns directly with the broader pattern we are seeing, where central banks are not abandoning the system outright but are quietly hedging against its potential breakdown.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, about half the cargo ships are headed to the US to get oil. Some have claimed that Trump is trying to replace the Middle East. This seems to be a conspiracy theory that contradicts what you have reported. What do you make of that?

RW

ANSWER: I know, there are wild conspiracy theories being proposed. I have even heard that Trump did this to force the EU to collapse. Sending the world into recession/depression is absurd. Trump is trying to sell more widgets, not fewer. Plus, rising oil prices put the Midterms at risk. That just makes no sense. Most of these conspiracy theories assume the people in government are smart – that is NOT the case.

As for tankers, there are not enough in the world to transport all the oil that needs to be transported. We have had some of the world’s largest shippers as clients for decades. There is what is known as “Tonne-miles” (or tonne-kilometers), which is the standard unit for measuring freight transportation volume, and it’s a key metric for understanding crude oil logistics.

A single ton-mile represents moving one ton of cargo over a distance of one mile. In the oil industry, a “ton” of crude oil is approximately 7.5 barrels. This metric allows you to directly compare the total transport “work” done by different modes (pipeline, rail, ship, truck), regardless of the shipment size or distance.

The most notable shift in the data is from water carriers to pipelines. In 1980, water carriers held a slight lead over pipelines for crude oil ton-miles. By 1999, pipelines had grown their share to over 75%, while water carriers had dropped to under 24%.

On a global scale, the focus shifts to seaborne trade, which is measured in tonne-miles (the metric equivalent). Recent data shows this is a massive and growing industry, currently being reshaped by geopolitical events. Global oil tonne-miles (for all products) grew from roughly 15.3 trillion in 2020 to 16.4 trillion in 2024, an increase of about 6%. Crude oil itself constitutes roughly 70% of total global seaborne tonne-miles.

In 2025, the global figure stood at approximately 12.2 trillion (year-to-date), indicating a contraction. This decline is partly due to the rerouting of tankers away from the Red Sea because of Houthi attacks, which caused tanker tonne-miles to hit a five-year high earlier in 2024 before the current dip. The reason this is critical to our analysis is that this is a core measure of economic activity. The total volume of crude oil moved is a key input for GDP figures, while changes in tonne-miles affect the costs of energy and consumer goods.

This allows for a direct comparison of efficiency between modes. For example, pipelines and large tankers are far more energy-efficient per ton-mile than trucks or rail. Some look at this also as a carbon footprint and other environmental costs of transporting crude oil over long distances. Energy companies and governments rely on tonne-mile forecasts to decide where to build new pipelines, expand ports, or invest in rail infrastructure.

The longer the trip to transport oil the higher the cost to ship that oil. Therefore, we have another variable here regarding the cost of shipping. On top of all of this, the claim that the United States is somehow displacing Iran is really absurd. The United States is a NET IMPORTER of crude oil. We may be able to facilitate some for geopolitical reasons and to try to keep prices down, but the US can in no possible way replace the Middle East. Who ever makes up these stories are really beyond hope.

PRIVATE BLOG – Why Iran has Won

Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or to learn more, please visit Ask-Socrates.com.

https://ask-socrates.com/

One of the greatest mistakes Western policymakers repeatedly make is assuming that other cultures think the same way they do. They approach international conflicts through a secular lens of power, economics, and negotiation. But when dealing with Iran, they are confronting a political system deeply intertwined with religious ideology. When an Ayatollah or senior clerical leader is killed, the event does not necessarily weaken the movement. In many cases, it strengthens it.

In Shiite Islam, the concept of martyrdom sits at the center of religious identity. The defining event for the Shia world was the death of Imam Hussein at the Battle of Karbala in 680 AD. Hussein, the grandson of the Prophet Muhammad, was killed after refusing to submit to what he regarded as illegitimate rule. His death became the foundational narrative of Shia resistance. To this day, millions commemorate Ashura every year, mourning Hussein’s death and celebrating the idea that righteous martyrdom is preferable to submission to injustice.

This is not merely historical symbolism. The religious narrative reinforces the belief that suffering and sacrifice in the face of oppression ultimately leads to divine justice. The Quran repeatedly praises those who die in the path of God. One verse states that those killed in the cause of God should not be considered dead but alive with their Lord receiving provision (Quran 3:169). Another passage declares that God has “purchased from the believers their lives and their wealth in exchange for Paradise; they fight in the cause of God, kill and are killed” (Quran 9:111). These passages shape a worldview in which death during a struggle against perceived injustice can be interpreted as spiritual victory.

From that perspective, killing a religious leader such as an Ayatollah risks transforming that individual into a symbol of sacrifice. Instead of eliminating the movement, it can reinforce the belief that the struggle itself is righteous. In a secular political system, the death of a leader may weaken an organization. In a religious revolutionary system, it can unify followers under the banner of martyrdom.

The Western mindset approaches assassination very differently. When a leader is killed in the United States or Europe, the reaction is generally political or emotional rather than religious. When President John F. Kennedy was assassinated in 1963, the event shocked the nation and certainly increased patriotism and unity for a time. Yet Americans did not interpret his death as a religious sign or martyrdom that would justify continuing a sacred struggle. It was viewed as a national tragedy, not a divine narrative unfolding.

This difference is profound. Western societies mourn their leaders, investigate the crime, and eventually move forward politically. The death does not typically transform the leader into a theological symbol driving long-term resistance or warfare. In the Shia tradition, however, martyrdom is embedded in religious identity itself. The story of Karbala is reenacted every year precisely to reinforce that belief.

This is why Western policymakers often misunderstand the psychological dynamics of such conflicts. The assassination of leaders like Qassem Soleimani did not collapse Iranian influence in the region. Instead, it triggered massive demonstrations and strengthened the narrative that Iran was engaged in a sacred struggle against external enemies.

When a Shia religious authority is killed, the event is interpreted through the lens of Karbala. The leader becomes another martyr in a long line of figures who died resisting oppression. That narrative carries enormous emotional power. It binds communities together and legitimizes continued struggle.

Politicians in Washington often believe removing a leader will end a conflict. Yet in ideological and religious movements, the opposite frequently occurs. Killing a leader can transform a political confrontation into a moral crusade, reinforcing the belief that the faithful must continue the struggle no matter the cost.

Understanding this cultural and religious framework is essential. Without it, policymakers will continue to miscalculate the consequences of their actions. History repeatedly shows that wars are not fought only with weapons. They are also fought with ideas, beliefs, and narratives that can outlive any individual leader.

What we are witnessing across the United States is not just people relocating. It is the migration of income itself, and the numbers now confirm the scale. According to the latest IRS data, California lost $11.9 billion in adjusted gross income in a single year, while New York lost $9.9 billion. At the same time, Florida gained $20.6 billion, Texas gained $5.5 billion, and states like South Carolina and North Carolina each gained roughly $4 billion. This is not theoretical. This is measurable capital movement, and it is accelerating.

The critical point is that the IRS is not tracking opinions or surveys. It is tracking tax returns. These figures represent actual households, actual income, and actual wealth moving from one jurisdiction to another. The data is based on year-to-year address changes on filed tax returns, capturing both the number of households and the total income they take with them. When billions in adjusted gross income leave a state, that is not just population loss. That is a direct hit to the tax base.

What stands out immediately is the imbalance. Florida alone gained more than $20 billion in income from new residents in just one year, making it the largest beneficiary of domestic migration. In places like Palm Beach County, incoming residents reported average incomes of $178,085 compared to $98,527 for those leaving. That tells you exactly what is happening. This is not a random movement. This is higher-income individuals relocating and concentrating wealth in specific regions.

At the same time, high-tax states are seeing the reverse. The states losing the most income—California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, and Massachusetts—are also among those with the highest tax burdens. California’s top tax rate sits at 13.3%, while New York City residents can face combined state and local rates approaching 14.8%. When you combine those tax levels with high costs of living, the outcome becomes predictable.

What makes this even more significant is that the migration is being driven disproportionately by higher earners. IRS data consistently shows that households with $200,000 or more in income play an outsized role in net migration flows. In practical terms, that means a relatively small number of people can move a very large amount of taxable income. When they leave, they do not just reduce the population. They reduce revenue potential.

There is also a structural shift underway. States attracting capital tend to share common characteristics: lower taxes, lower housing costs, and policies that encourage development. In fact, analysts note that states gaining wealth are often those increasing housing supply, which helps keep costs down and attracts migration. This is not about ideology. It is about environment.

The longer-term consequence is a divergence in economic trajectories. States gaining income expand their tax base without raising rates. States losing income face a shrinking base and increasing pressure to maintain spending. That creates a feedback loop. As revenue declines, governments look to raise taxes further, which encourages additional outflows.

This is not a short-term trend. IRS migration data has been tracking these flows for decades, and the pattern has become increasingly pronounced in recent years. The rise of remote work has only accelerated what was already in motion by removing geographic constraints that once tied income to location.

What matters here is not just where people are moving. It is why they are moving. When individuals begin to calculate that relocating can save them tens of thousands of dollars annually in taxes alone, the decision becomes economic, not emotional. Once that calculation spreads, the migration becomes systemic.

The United States is effectively undergoing an internal redistribution of capital. Wealth is concentrating in regions that offer favorable conditions, while high-cost, high-tax states are experiencing steady erosion. This is not driven by a single policy or event. It is the cumulative result of incentives.

Governments can debate the causes, but they cannot alter the outcome. Capital moves. It always has. The only difference now is the speed and scale at which it is happening.

What most people fail to understand is that governments do not lose control overnight. They lose it gradually, and then they respond in stages. First comes rising debt. Then comes higher taxation. When that fails to produce the expected revenue, the next step is not reform. It is restriction.

We are now entering that phase where governments begin tightening their grip on capital. It starts subtly. Expanded IRS reporting requirements. Increased scrutiny on bank transactions. Lower thresholds for what is considered “suspicious activity.” These are not random policy decisions. They are part of a broader shift toward monitoring and ultimately controlling the movement of money.

The justification is always the same. Prevent tax evasion. Combat financial crime. Ensure fairness. But behind that narrative is a much deeper problem. Governments are facing structural deficits that they cannot resolve through growth alone. When spending exceeds revenue and debt continues to rise, they must either cut spending, raise taxes, or prevent capital from escaping. Historically, they choose the latter two.

We are already seeing early signs of this shift. Discussions around taxing unrealized gains, proposals for wealth taxes, and increased enforcement efforts all point in the same direction. These policies assume that capital is static, but once people begin to move their money or themselves, the response changes. Governments begin looking for ways to stop that movement.

Digital infrastructure is what makes this possible today in a way it never was before. Every transaction is tracked. Every account is monitored. The banking system itself becomes the enforcement mechanism. You no longer need physical barriers when financial barriers can be imposed instantly.

The danger is not a single sweeping policy. It is the accumulation of smaller measures that gradually remove financial freedom. By the time people realize what has changed, the system is already in place.

QUESTION: A follow-up. Will Socrates survive you? Have you taught anyone else how to program AI as you do?

PB

ANSWER: The lawyers are working on creating a 501(c)(3), which is a specific tax-exempt status granted by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to nonprofit organizations operated exclusively for religious, charitable, scientific, or educational purposes. This status, defined in section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code, provides significant federal income tax exemptions, which are vital in my case.

When Scotty beams me up, the IRS could claim that Socrates is worth $100 billion and demand that my heir pay tax on it. Naturally, they would not have that kind of cash, so the government would just seize the asset. Thus, the only way to ensure it continues without me is to donate it to a 501(c)(3) under the scientific and educational category

We have a team of programmers who work on the front end and are currently working on Version 2.0 to allow people to ask Socrates questions. This is what Socrates published back on March 27th, 2026. Things still appear to be heating up in June.

Socrates no longer needs me. I am becoming redundant. My goal has always been to replace me.

The Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Middle East is the most under-reported financial crisis in Human History. It has been accelerated by the clever Weaponization of Debt that nobody seems to have even contemplated. We are dealing with the Illusion of Perpetual Wealth, combined with the Illusion of a Great Dollar Crash, in which, in both cases, people are completely distracted from the real crisis brewing behind the curtain around the globe, which is about to explode and take the world by surprise.

We are staring into the eyes of a massive financial crisis that culminates in a confrontation between Public and Private Assets. The computer has been right on projecting the event and the timing. The energy crisis is already unleashing civil unrest around the globe, which our computer forecast would coincide with international war. The shortage of fertilizer combined with the shortage of diesel fuels are also impacting the shortage of food. Add to this mess, the Sovereign Debt Crisis

Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Middle East

Because of the Importance of This Institutional Report that would normally be $1500, we are making this available to our entire readership at only $500