Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

https://rumble.com/v6u2yxn-top-forecaster-ww3-and-europe-set-to-fall-ft.-martin-armstrong-daily-pulse-.html

In 1935, Roosevelt introduced “The Social Security Act,” which passed in Congress. However, the act was described as “Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance.” At first, the Act covered only industry and commerce. It was later extended to include farm operators in 1955. The SS tax was to be 3% of income up to an established limit.

The Amish pay taxes because the Bible said: “paying unto Caesar what is Caesar’s.” In 1956, the IRS informed the Amish that they were now subject to Social Security and would have to pay. One Amishman was quoted in a November 1962 Reader’s Digest article: “Allowing our members to shift their interdependence on each other to dependence upon any outside source would inevitably lead to the breakup of our order.” The constitutional question that has never been decided is what happens when the taxing power of government violates the First Amendment and Freedom of Religion? It clearly states: “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof…”

In 1802, Jefferson wrote to the Danbury Baptists of Connecticut that there should be “a wall of separation between church and state.” They feared that a minority religion could be subjugated by the Federal Government, acknowledging a national religion. The Johnson Amendment, named for Lyndon Johnson, is a provision in the U.S. tax code that prohibits all 501(c)(3) non-profit organizations from endorsing or opposing political candidates. If churches involve themselves in politics, then indeed that creates a reverse problem where the state can be taken over by one religion and oppress all others; so it can go both ways. Historically, religions have often seized governments and outlawed all other religions.

In this instance, concerning taxation in direct conflict with religion, a group of Amish presented a petition to Congress, with 14,000 signatures. Naturally, Congress ignored them. The Amish reasonably questioned what possible harm they could do by not paying into Social Security. “We do not want to be burdensome, but we do not want to lose our birthright to everlasting glory, therefore we must do all we can to live our faith!”

The IRS moved to go after the Amish and seize their bank accounts. The problem was – they had none! The IRS then sought to go after anyone buying milk from the Amish and attach their payments to divert them to the IRS. Most simply refused for such a scheme would happen just once and end the business. The IRS, refusing to consider any religious principle, moved in to seize property. In this case of the Amish, that meant cows and horses. They would rather have the Amish die than respect anyone’s rights to religion.

Valentine Byler of the Amish community in Pennsylvania owed four years of IRS taxes. The IRS, of course, added interest and penalties to raise it to $308.96. Byler argued his religion forbade paying for insurance. The IRS said that was a “technicality” and that it was really just a tax. Vyler has no bank account to seize, so they issued a summons to appear in court for a charge of contempt. The judge in Federal District Court in Pittsburgh, Pa, according to a Reader’s Digest article, “angrily demanded of the IRS agents, ‘Don’t you have anything better to do than to take a peaceful man off his farm and drag him into court?’” The Judge then dismissed the case.

The IRS never gives up. The IRS had to issue a statement on April 18, 1961, in which they said:

Since Mr. Byler had no bank account against which to levy for the tax due, it was decided as a last desperate measure to resort to seizure and sale of personal property.

The IRS seized three of Byler’s six horses while he was actually plowing the ground for the spring planting. The IRS then sold the three horses at auction on May 1, 1961, getting $460. They then used this to satisfy the $308.96 and then charged him $113.15 in expenses and graciously returned $37.89. The incident made national news and was being used by the Communists to show how capitalism was ruthless. The New York Herald Tribune, reported the story with the bold headline: “Welfarism Gone Mad.”

The IRS Chief of Collections was forced to respond claiming he was unaware of the plowing situation. “Plowing never occurred to me. I live in an apartment.”  To show the mentality of those who are bureaucrats, he then said: “We don’t ask people their race or religion when we administer the tax laws. People have no right to use their religion as an excuse not to pay taxes.”

The IRS was then compelled to issue a press release in 1961, stating the Amish stance that “Social Security payments, in their opinion, are insurance premiums and not taxes. They, therefore, will not pay the ‘premium’ nor accept any of the benefits.”

The Amish met with the IRS Commissioner in September 1961 in Washington, DC. They cited several Bible passages, including I Timothy 5:8, which says, “But if any provide not for his own, and especially for those of his own house, he hath denied the faith and is worse than an infidel.”

The public outrage at the conduct of the IRS was international. The Amish argued they were entitled to an exemption based on the First Amendment. The IRS agreed to cease further seizures until the case was settled. Now, senators promised to try to pass a bill in Congress and everything stopped. The Amish hired a lawyer to challenge this conflict between the taxing power and the First Amendment. However, as the court date approached, they realized that if they lost in court, it would be over. They then looked to Congress to pursue a legislative exemption. Finally, in 1965, the Medicare bill was passed by Congress. Congress realized that if the Amish went to court and won, then others could challenge the right to tax conflicting with the First Amendment. Congress quietly put in on page 138 a clause exempting the Old Order Amish, and any other religious sect that conscientiously objected to insurance, from paying Social Security payments, providing that the sect had been in existence since December 31, 1950. The Senate approved in July, and President Lyndon B. Johnson signed it into law on August 13, 1965.

The open question remains simply this; the first explicit references to the tithe appear in Genesis 14, where Abraham tithes to Melchizedek, and in Genesis 28, where Jacob promises to give God “a full tenth.” But where did the idea to tithe come from? Many argue Abraham and Jacob were simply following the customs of the surrounding nations. But Scripture points in a different direction. In Genesis 26:5, God says, “Abraham obeyed my voice and kept my charge, my commandments, my statutes, and my laws.” In the New Testament, Jesus upholds the tithe in Matthew 23:23 (cf. Luke 11:42). He condemns the Pharisees for their tedious commitment to one part of God’s law, the tithe, while neglecting “the weightier matters of justice, mercy, and faithfulness.” Then he states, “These you ought to have done, without neglecting the others.”

One of the Five Pillars of Islam, zakat is a religious obligation for all Muslims who meet the necessary criteria of wealth. This too is not a charitable contribution, but is considered to be an obligatory tax or  alms. The payment and disputes on zakat have also been controversial in the history of Islam. The zakat is based on income and the value of all of one’s possessions or property. It has been traditionally set at 2.5% above a minimum amount known as nisab, which has also been greatly debated.

In Judaeo-Christianity, the “tithe” was a one-tenth of annual produce or earnings, formerly taken as a tax for the support of the church and clergy in Christianity. The question is, does exceeding the level prescribed as a “tithe” violate the First Amendment? If true, then any income tax imposed beyond 10% would violate the First Amendment. Since the Ten Commandments also prohibits coveting anything that belonged to a neighbor including his wife or property, it would appear that Socialism championed by Karl Marx violates the First Amendment and any tax should not exceed 10%. Hence, progressive taxation would be unconstitutional if not a flat tax. Some argue it also violates Equal Protection of the laws. The Tax at the time of Jesus’s statement to give to Caesar what is Caesar’s was less than 5%.

Historically, during the Roman Republic, the tax imposed was 1%. During times of war, the taxes would rise to 3%. Ever since Karl Marx, who said religion is the opium of the masses, politicians have loved Marxism and used it to exploit the people to the point governments are averaging now 40% of the entire economy. They have outpaced all other businesses beating the bankers and multinational corporations. They have become the 800 pound gorilla in the corner of the room nobody notices is even there. Politicians always preach against the “rich” which increases the wealth of government. As the IRS commented: “We don’t ask people their race or religion when we administer the tax laws. People have no right to use their religion as an excuse not to pay taxes.” This is obviously the spirit of Karl Marx.

COMMENT: Marty, all I can say is WOW! I have a PhD in economics. You drop bombshells here and there that are so profound they are beyond everything ever taught in economics. Your comment that social justice is incompatible with economic efficiency and individual liberty is right in front of our eyes. Nobody has ever laid Marxism and Keynesianism out to rest in so few words. I would wage a bet it will take just weeks before someone claims this was their idea when what is obvious is that to reach such a profound statement necessitates actual observation and experience. Nobody has that experience but you since you have dealt with governments around the world and major institutional investors. That statement sums up decades of false theories in economics that have suppressed society and is leading to war.

You should have your next generation conference ASAP before unscrupulous charlatans steal your work as they so often do.

HK

REPLY: Yes, I am trying to finish the Economic Confidence Model book. That is in there. I will try to do that Next Generation Conference ASAP while I still can. As far as the charlatans are concerned, the greatest risk that they pose is that they lack the historical database to substantiate their stolen ideas, but worse yet, when questioned, they lack the depth to actually offer solutions to the next turn of events. What I have been forced to learn comes from my clients. Even forecasting war came from dealing with clients and observing how money moves in advance. You do not get there from old theories that were predicated on fixed exchange rate systems.

NY Fed’s John Williams believes the CPI data was distorted downward. Williams stated that the economic data blackout caused by the government shutdown caused CPI figures to appear lower than reality.

“There were some special factors or practical factors that really are related to the fact that they weren’t able to collect data in October and not in the first half of November. And because of that, I think the data were distorted in some of the categories, and that pushed down the CPI reading, probably by a tenth or so,” Williams told reporters at CNBC. “It’s hard to know, we’ll get some when we’ll get to December data, I think we’ll get a better reading of how much that distortion, how big the effect was, but I do think that that was pushed down a bit by these technical factors,” he added.

CPI rose at 2.7% on an annualized basis last month, according to the delayed data produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The data was collected during the second half of November when sales were prevalent. The October CPI release was not officially compiled but they provided a rough estimate based on “non survey data sources.” Obviously, it is not possible to compare November to October when the data is simply not there.

Williams has admitted what I warned all along—we cannot trust the numbers provided by the government. Yet, these numbers are used to create monetary policy despite obvious discrepancies. Williams voted in favor of a cut in December but does not feel an “urgent need” to continue easing.

Monetary authorities are trying to manage an economy they cannot measure properly. They are balancing a weakening labor market against inflation readings that they themselves confess may be inaccurate.

Those nets aren’t for leaves ?pic.twitter.com/RndbeWYhQb

— Curiosity (@MAstronomers) December 10, 2025

Our parents and grandparents once ran to bomb shelters to save themselves from enemy fire. In modern warfare, the people are most concerned about drones infiltrating civilian airspace. Netting can be seen across Ukraine that looks akin to bird netting, but it holds a more sinister purpose—protecting civilians from drone strikes.

Industrial mesh covers key roads and bridges to form tunnels capable of blocking small drones. The fishing nets are precisely that—fishermen from Sweden and France have donated hundreds of tons of used netting to Ukraine. Instead of catching deep sea monkfish, these horsehair fishing nets are attempting to counter the 500 daily drone attacks occurring across Ukraine.

“At first they were used by doctors protecting medical camps near the frontline but now they are being used on roads, bridges, the entrances to hospitals… it’s astonishing that something so simple works so well,” one charity noted. Ukrainian troops are also attempting to drop this netting on Russian drones mid-air.

Russia has employed similar anti-drone measures. A true grassroots countermeasure proved to be free. This simple technology has never been utilized before, as we are witnessing the dawn of drone warfare and the emerging solutions to combat the destruction.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I understand the previous Japanese government did to you with the letter asking to confirm $10 billion when it was $1 billion and they never explained how they could make such a mistake. Here in Japan, we are still struggling as you had warned would be the case with the collapse of the bubble economy 36 years ago. The recently elected Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has proposed an ambitious 21 trillion yen ($135 billion) spending program that puts new stresses on already heavily overdrawn government coffers. Would you ever consider coming to Japan to advise the new government?

TK

ANSWER: Thank you for the offer, but I do not believe that the new government would want to hear anything I had to say. The plan fulfills Takaichi’s campaign promise to bring yet another “proactive fiscal policy” that she thinks would bring Japan out of its long economic decline since the collapse of the bubble economy back in 1989. She is tackling a new approach to spend with the intention to help people cope with higher prices through various subsidies rather than taking more painful steps to control inflation itself, which has failed. When inflation is caused globally that began with the lockdowns of COVID instigating shortages, no single country can defeat inflation that is not caused domestically alone.

Next year will be critical for Japan. This will be our long-term target object – 43 years from the 1989 peak. Japan is the textbook case of how aggressively targeting inflation can fail when CONFIDENCE, demographics, and debt dynamics overwhelm monetary tools. Those who create these theoretical economic solutions assume they can manipulate people and never grasp that the core issue remains CONFIDENCE. People must believe that there is a future. Until the government understands that, it will fail continually. This is why some academics hate my guts because the reality is that their schemes to manipulate society fail and they prefer to blame others for their failed theories.

In 2013, under Abenomics, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) formally adopted a 2% inflation target. Inflation never reached that level because there was no CONFIDENCE in the future. People hoarded their cash and did not spend. Households and firms did not believe inflation would last.

Massive QE beginning in the early 2000s, expanded after 2013. The BoJ balance sheet grew to over 130% of GDP (largest in the world). Money did not circulate. Banks parked liquidity back at the BoJ or bought JGBs. Corporations hoarded cash instead of investing except for US Treasuries and the hoard resulted in the collapse of the Velocity of money.

You can print money, but you cannot force CONFIDENCE or risk-taking when the people are uncertain about the future. People MUST have CONFIDENCE in the future. Failing that, they will hoard money and refuse to invest. This is well established even with all the hoards of Roman coins from the 3rd Century AD. This is why there are many Roman coins that have survived because people burred their cash during the 3rd century when the CONFIDENCE in Rome surviving collapsed especially after Emperor Valerian I was captured in battle by the Persians exposing the weakness of Rome.

From 2016 onward, the BoJ capped the 10-year JGB yield near zero. Bond market liquidity evaporated. Investors exited the market entirely. Because of the rising debt, stimulus spending was offset by future tax fears. The people did not trust the FUTURE!

Japan is a mess. The academics have been totally wrong and Japan is on the edge of default. I do not think I can solve the problems of Japan with just one meeting. This is a very complex crisis compounded by so many mistakes it will take a serious reset. I do not believe that it can be turned until they come to realize that their theories are just wrong and that typically necessitates the crash. The academics rejected Keynes until after the Great Depression when all their previous theories failed. Unfortunately, the same will be true with the ECM. They will cling to Keynesianism until it all comes crashing down.

What politicians and academic economists refuse to look at, is that it is impossible to create social justice without the loss of individual liberty and economic efficiency. Just look at communism and the slow decay of Europe as the EU tries to create social justice at the expense of everything else. They confound civil rights and equality with material equality and that has failed every single time.

Merry Christmas to everyone around the world.

Christmas is a reminder that history does not move in straight lines. It moves in cycles. Every civilization has faced moments where confidence was tested, institutions were stretched beyond their limits, and the public was told to trust systems that were clearly no longer working as intended. Those moments always separate illusion from reality.

The Economic Confidence Model has always shown that turning points are inevitable. Declines do not last forever, nor do booms. Christmas arrives regardless of markets, wars, or political agendas. That alone should tell us something important about resilience.

I wish you peace, clarity, and the confidence to think independently in the year ahead.

Merry Christmas!

— Martin Armstrong and the Armstrong Economics team