Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

As we close out 2025, I want to personally thank the more than 2.5 million readers from around the world who visited ArmstrongEconomics.com this year. Your willingness to question official narratives, examine history, and think independently is what keeps this site alive and relevant.

Our content is based on following the data, the cycles, and the models wherever they lead, even when the conclusions are uncomfortable. The fact that millions continue to return tells me that confidence in independent analysis is rising at precisely the moment institutions are losing credibility.

The global economy cannot be viewed from isolated lenses, and our readership reflects the global nature of our venture. Readers from 232 nations around the world tuned in and turned off their preconceived notions of the world to explore the underlying patterns and cycles that are propelling us into a new future. Millions of us have a common bond and understanding.

The years ahead will test economic, political, and social structures globally. My commitment remains the same. I will continue to provide clear, historically grounded analysis so you can navigate what lies ahead with foresight rather than fear.

Thank you for being part of this journey.

This list represents readers from around the world who share a common desire to question official narratives, study history, and understand how economic and political cycles truly function. Despite different cultures, languages, and borders, what unites this global audience is a shared view that the future cannot be understood by opinion or ideology, but only by following the data, the trends, and the repeating patterns of history.

1. United States
2. Canada
3. Great Britain
4. Australia
5. Germany
6. Netherlands
7. Sweden
8. France
9. Spain
10. Switzerland
11. Norway
12. Belgium
13. New Zealand
14. Italy
15. Poland
16. Finland
17. Singapore
18. Ireland
19. Hong Kong
20. South Africa
21. Mexico
22. South Korea
23. India
24. (not set)
25. Austria
26. Japan
27. Malaysia
28. Thailand
29. Greece
30. Denmark
31. Russia
32. Portugal
33. Brazil
34. Indonesia
35. Croatia
36. Romania
37. Czechia
38. Hungary
39. China
40. Philippines
41. Iran
42. Bulgaria
43. Serbia
44. United Arab Emirates
45. Slovenia
46. Luxembourg
47. Turkey
48. Taiwan
49. Turkmenistan
50. Costa Rica
51. Israel
52. Colombia
53. Argentina
54. Chile
55. Panama
56. Slovakia
57. Vietnam
58. Ecuador
59. Peru
60. Cyprus
61. Bosnia and Herzegovina
62. Iceland
63. Saudi Arabia
64. Cambodia
65. Ukraine
66. Egypt
67. Puerto Rico
68. Bahamas
69. Pakistan
70. Dominican Republic
71. Bahrain
72. Montenegro
73. Estonia
74. Lithuania
75. Nigeria
76. Kenya
77. Uruguay
78. Lebanon
79. Morocco
80. Paraguay
81. Georgia
82. Bermuda
83. Malta
84. North Macedonia
85. Algeria
86. Albania
87. Jamaica
88. Mauritius
89. Belize
90. Guernsey
91. Latvia
92. Trinidad & Tobago
93. Jersey
94. Cayman Islands
95. Guatemala
96. Qatar
97. Monaco
98. Suriname
99. Bolivia
100. Liechtenstein
101. Namibia
102. Bangladesh
103. Jordan
104. Tanzania
105. Moldova
106. Venezuela
107. Sri Lanka
108. Belarus
109. Ghana
110. Andorra
111. Aruba
112. Kazakhstan
113. Honduras
114. Zambia
115. Armenia
116. Fiji
117. Kuwait
118. Uganda
119. Isle of Man
120. Nicaragua
121. Nepal
122. S. Virgin Islands
123. Barbados
124. Cuba
125. Laos
126. Myanmar (Burma)
127. Zimbabwe
128. El Salvador
129. Curaçao
130. Seychelles
131. Guam
132. Iraq
133. Maldives
134. Azerbaijan
135. Macao
136. Oman
137. Tunisia
138. Côte d’Ivoire
139. Lucia
140. Faroe Islands
141. Uzbekistan
142. Papua New Guinea
143. Ethiopia
144. Antigua & Barbuda
145. Mozambique
146. Mongolia
147. Kyrgyzstan
148. Botswana
149. Angola
150. Sint Maarten
151. Haiti
152. Malawi
153. Réunion
154. French Polynesia
155. British Virgin Islands
156. Rwanda
157. Guyana
158. Martinique
159. Syria
160. Turks & Caicos Islands
161. Kitts & Nevis
162. Åland Islands
163. Brunei
164. Guadeloupe
165. Dominica
166. Grenada
167. Martin
168. Cameroon
169. Cape Verde
170. Liberia
171. Greenland
172. Guinea
173. Kosovo
174. Libya
175. New Caledonia
176. Senegal
177. Eswatini
178. Caribbean Netherlands
179. Sierra Leone
180. Bhutan
181. Gambia
182. Somalia
183. Gibraltar
184. Timor-Leste
185. Samoa
186. Madagascar
187. San Marino
188. Afghanistan
189. Montserrat
190. Vanuatu
191. American Samoa
192. Palestinian Territories
193. Congo – Kinshasa
194. Pierre & Miquelon
195. Burkina Faso
196. Lesotho
197. South Sudan
198. Benin
199. Gabon
200. Vincent & Grenadines
201. Central African Republic
202. Djibouti
203. Yemen
204. Palau
205. Cook Islands
206. Tajikistan
207. Tonga
208. Anguilla
209. French Guiana
210. Mauritania
211. Congo – Brazzaville
212. Equatorial Guinea
213. Northern Mariana Islands
214. Norfolk Island
215. Marshall Islands
216. Solomon Islands
217. Mali
218. Niger
219. Burundi
220. Barthélemy
221. Western Sahara
222. Svalbard & Jan Mayen
223. Togo
224. Falkland Islands
225. Micronesia
226. Comoros
227. Mayotte
228. Antarctica
229. Guinea-Bissau
230. British Indian Ocean Territory
231. Helena
232. Vatican City

Some people have a tough time understanding that we are in a massive deflationary spiral; they think that rising prices mean it is inflation and not deflation. Then they mistake stagflation for deflation and wonder why people are spending more on less. They only see prices, not disposable income, and, indeed, not economic growth or unemployment.

Prices rose sharply following the OPEC oil price hikes of the 1970s. Still, the sharp rise in energy prices crowded out other forms of spending, resulting in rising prices that had nothing to do with a speculative economic expansion, and a deflationary contraction they called STAGFLATION occurred, with rising prices and declining economic growth.

If you want to raise NET DISPOSABLE INCOME, lower taxes! Raising wages, as the Democratas believe corporations should do, will cause people to move to higher tax brackets, and soon, all benefits will come into play with these socialistic programs. As always, nobody in government talks about reducing government waste and corruption. The very people who are using these social programs are still paying taxes to the state and federal government.

Household income will soon be defined as everyone living in the same house – kids and all. Perhaps you will have to pitch a tent and make the kids sleep outside with the dog to avoid “household” income tax increases. Deflation is not the lowering of prices; it is the lowering of economic activity that can also include STAGFLATION, which occurs when prices rise but there is no economic growth.

Now, stagflation is not exactly the same as deflation, where the price of goods and services declines. For example, before World War II, the US experienced a massive deflationary environment in which GDP fell by 30% between the crash of 1929 and 1933. A quarter of Americans were unemployed. Imagine 1 in 4 eligible workers on the sidelines. Prices plummeted, and consumers were not spending because they had very little, if anything, to spend. Panics erupted, and people hoarded; the Second World War brought America out of that economic downfall. The public confidence wave began after World War II, because people believed their change in fortune was due to government policies (i.e., FDR’s New Deal) and war victory.

During periods of stagflation, the prices of goods and services increase while buying power decreases. Consumers end up spending more on less. As we are seeing now, for example, retail sales of items such as clothing have declined, but people are spending more on gas, shelter, and groceries. People feel as if they are earning less despite wage increases because their buying power has been drastically reduced. Companies will suffer as consumers spend less, and this has led to workforce reductions. Unemployment during the OPEC crisis of the 1970s was not nearly as severe, but it rose to 7.2% by 1980. Inflation went from around 1% in 1964 to 14% in 1980, and GDP growth went from 5.8% to -0.3% during that same period.

So be very careful. If you only look at prices rising and ignore the fact that your disposable income is declining, you will be in for a very rude awakening. Unemployment will continue to rise in 2026, with the computer anticipating figures surpassing 6%. The trend was set in motion long before automation and AI. Companies simply will not hire when they expect a continued contraction. The ability to borrow at a lower rate is not enticing because those same companies do not want to take on more debt than they already owe. We will not see another Great Depression by any means, but the “soft landing” is merely rhetoric intended to lift confidence.

November home sales in the US paint a picture of stagnation and a frozen market. Home prices and mortgages have risen and demand has waned. This is a buyer’s market but conditions are not particularly favorable due to the cost of ownership.

Sales rose 0.5% from November to October and were 1% lower on an annual basis, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. A total of 4.13 million homes were sold for the month based on closings.

Supply remains constrained on a monthly basis, declining 5.9% from October, but have risen 7.5% on the yearly. A six-month supply is considered a balanced buyer-seller market, but current conditions show a 4.2-month supply.

The median home price in the US has reached $409,200, up 1.2% annually, and the highest reading on record for November. Lower-priced homes are not selling as those with less cannot afford to enter the market. Homes priced from $100,000 to $250,000 are down 8% from last year, but homes above $1 million rose 1.4%.

Gone are the days of overbidding cash offers. Homes are sitting on the market for an average of 36 days. Investors are slowly re-entering the market and accounted for 18% of sales compared to 13% one year prior. New homeowners accounted for 30% of sales, but historically, first-time home owners account for 40% of closings.

Weak regions are seeing declining values while stronger capital-inflow areas remain firm. This is classic late-cycle behavior. Real estate does not move as a monolith. It turns region by region, driven by employment, taxation, migration, and regulatory burden. The myth of a single “national housing market” is one of the great analytical failures of modern economics.

Transactions are falling and inventory is uneven. The real pressure will come not from housing itself, but from government debt, taxation, and declining economic confidence as we move toward the 2026 turning point. The model indicates that the current buyers market will persist into 2028. There will NOT be a housing bubble collapse as we saw in 2008. Commercial real estate is far more vulnerable than residential and operates on a different cycle. People have fled and are continuing to flee states that are unfavorable to capital, as we have seen with mega corporations fleeing places like New York and California. We will see fragmentation on a regional basis in real estate.

Interest rates will not collapse to save housing as capital demands higher yields and the central bank cannot toy with the markets as they have in recent years. Capital is migrating to states that offer financial stability, lower taxation and regulation. Transaction volume is declining and sellers are refusing lower prices. Buyers are waiting. Liquidity is vanishing. This is all par for the course during a collapse of confidence that will intensify in 2026.

PRIVATE BLOG – Nickel – Preparing for War?

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In his 1936 book, ‘The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money,’ John Maynard Keynes argued that aggregate demand was too volatile to be stable and would lead to inflation or recession. His theory honed in on spending as a means of price control. Low aggregate demand, Keynes argues, would lead to high unemployment and stagflation. Government could intervene through fiscal policies to increase aggregate demand, as an example, increased government spending could tame inflation. According to Keynes, interest rates could also be adjusted to encourage spending and stimulate demand. So why are these theories failing miserably today?

To begin, the United States had a balanced budget when Keynes presented his theory. The government is now the biggest borrower, acting in its own self-interest under Adam Smith’s theory of the invisible hand that Keynes spent his career attempting to deny. According to Keynes, “there is no self-correcting mechanism in a free market economy that automatically restores full employment.” He believed that the government could change the business cycle but arguably regretted this notion on his deathbed.

Keynesian economics gave the government the green light to manipulate the economy, or at least make numerous failed attempts to do so. There is that old joke about communism that you can vote your way in, but must shoot your way out, seemingly fitting to the utter disaster governments have created regarding our economic situation.

The government is by far the biggest borrower. Raising interest rates can have no impact on demand, as the government will simply borrow more, and the central banks have no control over government spending. In a historic act of defiance, Powell came out during the Biden administration and warned that government spending was completely unsustainable. It is extremely rare to see the Fed criticize Washington, but the situation has become too dire for anyone with integrity to remain quiet. Powell plainly stated that the government was borrowing against future generations of Americans. Now, Powell must continually defend the pivot away from failed QE programs due to Trump’s insistence on lowering rates to the negatives.

The central bank seeks to align with Washington to maintain public confidence. During the Great Depression, Washington forced the Federal Reserve to implement QE policies to artificially lower rates to increase demand. Yet, when Washington ordered the Federal Reserve to do the same during the Korean War in 1951, the central bank first broke with Washington and refused to comply, as it knew it would hurt the economy, as America’s budget was no longer balanced.

Quantitative Easing has destroyed the Keynesian model, leaving central banks with no alternative means of controlling the economy. If they raise rates, the budget explodes. Keynesians advocate manipulating aggregate demand and fiscal spending that the central bank cannot control. However, the other component of Keynesianism is the use of taxation. Keynes argued that to stimulate demand, you lower taxes. He saw this correctly, but again, it does not fit with government agendas. The government is desperate for funding and believes citizens must pay. Taxes alone could never make a dent in government spending, but some politicians genuinely do not understand that reality.

There is no limit to what the government will spend with “money” that does not exist. Governments continue to borrow perpetually with no real intention of paying back their debts. This is one piece of the Sovereign Debt Crisis that will implode like a nuclear bomb, the likes of which we have never witnessed. The business cycle cannot be manipulated, and, moreover, the Keynesian model cannot account for declining confidence in both government and the economy.

The most frequently asked question of 2025: Is war inevitable?

I’ve spent my entire life attempting to prove the computer wrong. I’ve hoped that the cycle in motion could change and I’ve watched as events unfolded, right on target, that only Socrates could foresee. A cycle in motion remains in motion. The trajectory and speed may alter, but the end result is inevitable.

Below is perhaps the most popular article of 2025. I wish I could provide a different answer but I will always respond with the truth.

QUESTION: Well, here we are at the 15th, right on schedule. Your model turns up, and it looks like no deal. Would you care to comment?

Uri

ANSWER: Putin said their purpose would be “to remove the root causes of the conflict and move towards creating a long-term, durable peace in a historical perspective”. Zelenskyy said he was prepared to attend, but only if Putin also showed up, because “everything in Russia depends” on the Russian leader as if that is not the case in Ukraine. Trump also was not attending.

Zelensky is a Neo-Nazi and he takes orders from the EU and NATO. He wants every Russian dead. What would he do if Russia left the Donbas? He has outlawed them from speaking Russian, denied them any right to vote, outlawed Orthodox Christianity, and outlawed them from even celebrating Christmas. The Ukrainian people have a choice. Either to die for the Neocons, or rise up and overthrow Zelensky. Contacts in Romania realize the EU is trying to orchestrate them into war with Russia. The strategy here is to send the Eastern Europeans in to kill as many Russians as possible, and then Macron can invade Russia like Napoleon.

Our model peaked intraday in the last quarter of 2024, with the third quarter of 2024 as the highest quarterly closing. The correction was to be into the first Quarter, and then the second quarter was a Directional Change. We will now head into the third quarter of 2025, which should reflect the failure of any peace deal because any ceasefire is only to regroup and rearm Ukraine. There is no resolution to this, and the EU will NEVER allow Ukraine to have peace.

There was a peace deal. Putin withdrew his tanks around Kiev, and Boris Johnson flew to Ukraine and instructed Zelensky not to sign any peace deal. More than one million Ukrainians are now dead. My sources in the US military confirm that all the claims that Russia has lost 1 million are fake news. This is all to push for war. Europe does NOT want peace. They are broke, and without war, the people will be storming their parliaments with pitchforks to hang these politicians on the street, for everything they were promised will vanish in a sovereign default. They NEED a distraction, and that is war with Russia, the same as Carney ran against Trump in Canada and avoided all domestic economic damage carried out by the Liberal Party.

It is NOT a question of IF but only WHEN

That’s our Computer – not my personal opinion.

The year 2025 was not defined by a single shock, but by a decisive break in confidence. Governments repositioned, as did central banks, but both have realized they are unable to stop the cycle in motion. The public no longer trusts those in charge of monetary or fiscal policy and confidence was the dominant theme of the year.

The drums of war loudly rang throughout the world. The Middle East saw intense conflict between Israel and Palestine. The West gained strategic partnerships with formerly ousted partners and created new enemies. Europe continued to build its defenses as it braces for World War III, promoted by its own neocons who have refused to accept peace. Nations drifted deeper into debt as they prepared for the inevitable, propelling the sovereign debt crisis. Russia acknowledged that it is at war with NATO and has increased its nuclear power. There were over 110 ongoing wars across the globe in 2025, and tensions are intensifying.

Economic warfare persisted. April’s tariffs and market correction sent shockwaves through the economy. Nations were forced to rethink trade and restrategize all imports/exports. War tensions rose in the East as all eyes are on Taiwan. China and the US remain at odds and are fighting for the title of “financial capital of the world.” China’s growing middle class and technological advancements rapidly accelerated.

Donald Trump taking office marked a global shift away from the globalist agenda–for now. Trump steered the US in a 180-degree direction from Joe Biden’s policies on energy, immigration, trade, and most importantly, war. I warned that Donald Trump’s election could delay the inevitable but not prevent it. As expected, the opposition has opposed the president every step of the way, which led to the longest government shutdown in US history. Confidence cracked once more when it was revealed that Joe Biden did not assume authorship of his presidency, leaving the public to wonder who was in charge of leading the world’s top economy for the past four years.

The push toward the Build Back Better agenda collapsed after Trump, and we witnessed countless nations vote for candidates with nationalist ideologies. Klaus Schwab’s exit from the World Economic Forum was unexpected and marked a change in vision from the bureaucratic elites who can no longer rely on the lies of climate change to control the masses. The new leadership of the WEF signaled a new direction for the globalists. They have not relented on their mission but altered it to adjust to the changing tides.

The dawn of the AI age has led to a new rise of institutions and reframed the future. Semiconductor chips are of utmost priority, as well as rare earth minerals, both of which are in tight supply. Automation has begun to replace workers. Jobs are in tight supply as businesses no longer trust in tomorrow and will not expand even if there is an opportunity to borrow at lower rates.

The most widely read content reflected that reality. When Vietnam erased and froze 86 million bank accounts tied to digital ID compliance, the response was immediate and global. Readers understood this was not about Vietnam, but about the future of money itself. That concern deepened as similar systems expanded elsewhere. Thailand’s biometric control model illustrated how surveillance, banking, and identity are converging into a single permission-based framework. Digital IDs and CBDC are not only valid concerns but concrete plans. Governments are increasing surveillance, tightening their grip on the masses who no longer trust them. Capital has poured into equities and tangibles as a hedge against governments.

The most engaged blog posts of 2025 shared a common thread: capital controls, digital identity, surveillance, war risk, sovereign debt, and the loss of credibility in government data. It is clear that the public has lost all hope in a reliable government. Trust has been lost, and people are seeking ways to protect themselves from increasingly authoritarian regimes.

2025 was the confirmation year. As we move into 2026, volatility will not come as a surprise. The Economic Confidence Model points to a heightened risk of financial stress, political instability, and sudden shifts in capital flows as confidence in institutions continues to erode. This is the phase in the cycle when governments are forced to react, often resorting to control measures as volatility rises. Although 2026 will be far from a calm year, the computer will continue to guide the way and provide a bit of predictability amid an unstable world.

PRIVATE BLOG – Will Silver hit $104?

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