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Join Us at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida! Nov. 17-19, 2023

2014 War Cyclew 2011 Conference 300x173

Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

  1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
  2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
  3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
  4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
  5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
  6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
  7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
  8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
  9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
  10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

NEW BOOK Now Available : "Mark Antony & Cleopatra"

Mark Antony Cleopatra Cleopatra Proxy War

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

"THE PLOT TO SEIZE RUSSIA - THE UNTOLD HISTORY"

The Plot to Seize Russia_3Dmockup_2 300x225

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

Market Talk – December 12, 2025

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a green day today:
• NIKKEI 225 increased 687.73 points or 1.37% to 50,836.55
• Shanghai increased 16.028 points or 0.41% to 3,889.346
• Hang Seng increased 446.28 points or 1.75% to 25,976.79
• ASX 200 increased 105.30 points or 1.23% to 8,697.30
• SENSEX increased 449.53 points or 0.53% to 85,267.66
• Nifty50 increased 148.40 points or 0.57% to 26,046.95
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD decreased 0.00072 or -0.11% to 0.66575
• NZDUSD decreased 0.00011 or -0.02% to 0.58069
• USDJPY increased 0.172 or 0.11% to 155.774
• USDCNY increased 0.00024 or 0.00% to 7.05243
The above data was collected around 13:15 EST.
Precious Metals:
• Gold increased 22.83 USD/t oz. or 0.53% to 4,302.86
• Silver decreased 1.593 USD/t. oz. or -2.51% to 61.947
The above data was collected around 13:18 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a negative day today:
• CAC 40 decreased 17.14 points or -0.21% to 8,068.62
• FTSE 100 decreased 54.13 points or -0.56% to 9,649.03
• DAX 30 decreased 108.12 points or -0.45% to 24,186.49
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
• EURUSD increased 0.00086 or 0.07% to 1.17466
• GBPUSD decreased 0.00154 or -0.12% to 1.33732
• USDCHF decreased 0.00011 or -0.01% to 0.79540
The above data was collected around 13:23 EST.
NORTH AMERICA:

US/AMERICAS:

  • DJIA declined by 245.96 points (-0.51%) to 48,458.05

  • S&P 500 declined by 73.59 points (-1.07%) to 6,827.41

  • NASDAQ declined by 398.69 points (-1.69%) to 23,195.169

  • Russell 2000 declined by 39.15 points (-1.51%) to 2,551.457

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined by 133.34 points (-0.42%) to 31,527.39

  • TSX 60 declined by 4.40 points (-0.24%) to 1,850.43

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced by 1,313.29 points (0.82%) to 160,502.39

ENERGY:
The oil markets had a negative day today:
• Crude Oil decreased 0.003 USD/BBL or -0.01% to 57.597
• Brent decreased 0.067 USD/BBL or -0.11% to 61.214
• Natural gas decreased 0.0867 USD/MMBtu or -2.05% to 4.1443
• Gasoline decreased 0.0104 USD/GAL or -0.59% to 1.7572
• Heating oil decreased 0.0181 USD/GAL or -0.81% to 2.2108
The above data was collected around 13:25 EST.
• Top commodity gainers: Platinum (3.12%), Orange Juice (6.52%), Silicon (1.81%) and Bitumen (2.03%)
• Top commodity losers: Zinc (-2.51%), Oat (-2.46%), Silver (-2.51%) and Methanol (-2.27%)
The above data was collected around 13:30 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 1.9550% (+2.44bp), US 2’s 3.54% (-0.014%), US 10’s 4.1920% (+3.1bps); US 30’s 4.86 (+0.056%), Bunds 2.8596% (+1.4bp), France 3.5780% (+2.04bp), Italy 3.5460% (+1.36bp), Turkey 28.53% (-12bp), Greece 3.494% (+2.3bp), Portugal 3.217% (+2.3bp); Spain 3.325% (+2.3bp) and UK Gilts 4.525% (+3.32bp)
The above data was collected around 13:34 EST.

A Word of Warning Dealing with the EU

EU Break up

QUESTION #1: Marty.

I just read your post on Europe being broke.  You say get out of all EU assets and they will screw Americans just like they are the Russians.
I have an apartment in downtown Athens that my aunt left to me.  I would guess value is around 250-300K euros.  I’m reluctant to sell in because taxes total 320 euros and utilities/fees another 400 euros yearly.
You’ve been writing about exiting European assets and I looked into selling but being a foreigner I feel realtors are trying to get me to sell for less than it was worth.
I know you have written that hard assets endure against changing currencies and governments.
A quick response would be greatly appreciated.
Alex
ANSWER: French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot wrote on X that the EU decision means that “no one will decide in place of the Europeans the use of these funds.” Trump’s NSS document made the point clear that many EU governments are agreeing with that the EU is facing ‘civilisational erasure’ because of its immigration policies and ‘censorship of free speech.’ If you read the NSS carefully, you will see that it focus US relationships with European countries on a few nations with like-minded over these issues. This includes Austria, Hungary, Italy and Poland were listed by the NSS as countries America should “work more with”, for the ultimate goal of “pulling them away from” the EU.
Belgium holds $183 billion at Euroclear. Its Prime Minister calls the competing EU plan “fundamentally wrong” and warns Russian litigation could “mean bankruptcy for Belgium.”
I am not concerned about property, but liquid assets that capital control can prevent from being wired. The EU will by no means survive. The actions of the EU and NATO are clearly about their own existence. Neither cares about Europe, the people, or the political member states. NATO is an expired cold war entity that should have been shut down. It’s ONLY purpose is war and to keep the money flowing they need to justify their existence by constantly claiming Russia wants to invade as if this is the days of Khrushchev when communism would defeat capitalism.
4 Horsemen Kushner Fink Witkoff Bessent
QUESTION #2: Larry Fink, Kushner and Bessent are all directly involved in Ukraine negotiations. Who is the 4th Horseman? Steve Witkoff?
GF
ANSWER #2: Yes. I would not invest 10 cents of my worst enemy in anything that they concoct. I warned them not to invest in Russia back in 1998. They did not listen. Soros lost $2 billion. Bessent the left. It’s always the same game. They think that they can control government for the perfect trade. I fear this is another huge loss in the making.
No right to Vote
QUESTION #3:

“I hear you, but it’s hard to comprehend how anyone could want war. I guess they think they and their posterity will be exempt from going to fight and the effects of war. They are willing to sacrifice other people’s lives. After dinner you pointed to my son and said that they would want to send him to fight. I have been looking for ways to avoid that from happening. I won’t allow it. Not for an unjust war.

There should be a law put in place that if you vote for war, that you and your posterity have to be the first to fight on the front lines.”
Franklin on Revolution
REPLY: This is problem. This is about retaining power. War is the only answer for the EU to retain the money and NATO to keep getting 5% of everyone’s GDP to line their pockets for salaries and pensions. The people should have the final say about war. NOT those who profit from war!

Get your liquid assets out of the EU.

They will impose capital controls and they view Trump as the enemy along side Putin.

EU is Broke & Rejects Peace Since They Would Have to Return Russian Money

2025_12_12_10_26_17 EU Stealing Russian Assets

I have been getting emails asking if the EU robbing Russia is the prelude to the Great Taking. Let’s make this very clear – there is NO GREAT TAKING – that is sophistry. You might as well add that they will default on all pensions, medicare, and Social Security while at it. Not even the army would defend such actions.

 

 

Without the army, the government fails just as the 1991 coup in Russia collapsed when the army did not fire on the people. They know that such a “Great Taking” would be revolution. We will all be singing the Revolution song from Les Misérables.

2025_12_12_10_31_57_Former_UK_Prime_Minister_to_Newsmax_Europe_Insanely_Jealous_of_US_Economy_N

The EU is on the verge of absolute collapse. Not only economically are they still in love with Marxism, but they are floundering and they are losing the support of member states all thanks to their stupid migrant policies, excessively high taxation, over-regulation, and now their desperate attempt to shut down free speech in a cynical effort to retain power. As I warned, the EU will sabotage any effort by Trump to end the war Ukraine. This is about the conquest of Russia for money.

2025_12_12_11_03_04_Rep._Massie_Introduces_Bill_to_Remove_the_United_States_from_NATO_U.S._Represe

Write a letter to your Representative in Congress to support Massie NOW!!!! It is vital that we exit NATO ASAP, they will stage a false flag perhaps during the first or second quarter to justify invoking Article 5 to draft Americans to go fight and die for a failed EU that refused to end their Marxist ways. This is NOT our war. Europe will lose and Ukraine will cease to be a nation as it was briefly known. NATO is sacrificing the Ukrainian people for its own retention of power.

 

 

We started this war against Russia on the orders of the American Neocons, John McCain and Victoria Nuland. The American Neocon installed the unelected government, told the Ukrainian people this revolution was about them and peace and then they instructed Kiev’s unelected government to start the civil war and attack Russians in the Donbas.

Ukraine Attacks Donbas 4 23 2014

This has never been about peace and Zelensky will NEVER accept peace for then he has to hold an election. Between Zelensky, UK, and the EU, they will reject peace and the EU is desperate to take all the Russian assets of which there are $50 billion in private assets like homes and yachts that belong to Russian citizens – this is not even state assets they are robbing.

EU Cancelled

Get out of the EU and UK. Sell any investments especially those claiming to rebuild Ukraine. You assets in Europe are subject to massive CAPITAL CONTROLS!!!!! Get out while you can. The EU is by no means to be trusted – they are broke and desperate governments do desperate things to retain power. What they are doing to Russians, they will do to Americans. They cannot be trusted! A poll of nine countries, conducted by French debate platform Le Grand Continent last week, that almost half of all citizens regard the US President as an “enemy” of Europe, and consider Trumpism to be “a hostile force”. The EU is cleverly turned the people against both Russia and America. Nearly half of EU expect war with Russia.

Capital Controls 2

The Propaganda of Interest Rates – Fed & Real Market Movements

Trump Rally 2017 2020

QUESTION: You have said you disagree with Trump about lower interest rates because he has been a borrower and not a lender. There was dissent at the Fed about Powell’s third cut. You have also said that the ECB has been trying to support the euro because of the pending war and that interest rates rise in times of war. This is getting very confusing. Can you shed any light on this chaos? The rate cut come with the market at a record high. This is all starting to appear reckless.

PK

Theory Interest Rates Down Stock Up

REPLY: Look, Trump is following what he was taught in school and what the talking heads have been saying for decades about interest rates and the economy. Neither Trump not anyone on Capital Hill understands economic history and mainstream media would NEVER put me on the air because I would contradict every talking head that they rely on.  Nobody correlates interest rates with the economy. It is always clinging to Marxist theories employed by Keynes from the Great Depression era. The Fed raised rates throughout Trump’s first term and the market rallied.

FED Interest Rate 1929 1932

There is no EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE whatsoever that rates down the and you get a bull market. Rates ALWAYS fall during depressions and recessions. This is always the same BS when the answer is simply confidence. You will pay 20% if you believe that market will rally 100% but you will not borrow at 1% if you do not expect the market to rally 1%.

1927 Secret Banking g4

In 1927, there was the first G4 where the European Central Banks pleaded with the Fed to cut rates convinced that the money was flowing to the US simply because of higher interest rates when the smart money was smelling sovereign default which did come in 1931.

DowIntRates 1927 1932

The Fed cut rates under pressure from Europe and that confirmed that there were problems in Europe. The capital flows then intensified into the US buying the auto-stocks which was the hot sector (bubble) back then. The market began to take off and the Fed abandoned that policy and began to raise rates chasing the market to its all time high in September 1929. Will history repeat but this time the coercion is coming from Trump?

 

Int Rates SP Great Recession 2007 2010

I’m sorry, but the press keeps putting out this BS that lower rates are bullish when they are indicative of depression or recession – not bull markets. This is what they teach in school that lower interest rates will smooth out the economy according to Keynesian Economics – a total lie! I do not know of one school that teaches the truth. This stupid theory has NEVER worked and there isn’t a school or any of the media willing to ever tell the truth. This is why you have people like Trump who scream at Powell without just cause because he has been taught the classic propaganda.

Volcker Rediscovery

Even Paul Volcker had the courage to warn that the Keynesian economics failed. He even told me that the Economic Confidence Model was correct that the business cycle was about 8 year. We do not stand a chance that society will ever get this right because the media insists on reporting fake news to keep these stupid theories in play.

Cling Old Theory r

Back in 2009 when I said the low was in place and the market would rally to new highs, Barron’s report that as a joke. They thought that was really funny.

Barrons 2010 detailDjow New High Barrons

The EU and Canada Collaborate on Digital IDs

EU and Canada agree to collaborate on digital ID mutual recognition, pilots

The latest agreement between the European Union and Canada to collaborate on mutually recognized digital IDs is simply another step in what I have been warning about for years. Whenever government confidence collapses, the political class tightens control. Digital ID is not about convenience; it is about tracking capital and controlling movement as the global sovereign-debt crisis accelerates.

The danger here is obvious. Mutual recognition means a unified framework. They’re building a foundation to establish a GLOBAL digital ID. Once these systems talk to one another, you have created the architecture for a worldwide database controlled by the political elite. This is precisely what the EU has been pushing with its Digital Services Act and the infamous “digital wallet” proposal. Now they are exporting it, just as they exported their disastrous ideas on Net Zero and financial regulation. Canada, collapsing economically and politically, is following Brussels into the abyss.

The EU and Canada will jointly test a pilot for digital identity wallets. Why do two separate continents need their systems to integrate? You cannot have a cross-border digital ID without a central authority. And once the state has the ability to monitor every transaction, every movement, every piece of identification, they will inevitably link this to taxation, travel permissions, banking access, and even political compliance. This is how governments always respond in the final stage of their fiscal life cycle. Rome imposed travel permits. The Soviet Union created the internal passport. Now the West is doing the same with better technology.

Capital will flee regions that move toward centralized digital identification. This is why we are seeing the migration of capital away from Europe and increasingly away from Canada. Both are moving toward a Marxist model where the citizen exists solely to fund the state. The push for digital ID aligns perfectly with the rising authoritarian wave into 2032 as governments fight to retain power in the face of systemic collapse.

Bulgaria’s Government Resigns Amid Civil Unrest

The entire Bulgarian government has resigned after nationwide protests following the government’s decision to join the European Union. “The government resigns today,” Rosen Zhelyazkov announced. “People of all ages, ethnic backgrounds and religions have spoken out in favour of resignation. That is why this civic energy must be supported and encouraged.”

The media portrayed the initial civil unrest as a reaction to the 2026 budget, but the root of the agitation lies with the nation relinquishing sovereignty to join the euro. The Bulgarian government resignation is symbolic; true power lies with the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels.

“The decisions of the National Assembly are meaningful when they reflect the will of the people. We want to be where society expects us to be,” Zhelyazkov said, referring to the anti-government protests. “We have no doubt that the government will receive support in the upcoming vote of no confidence. Regardless, the decisions of the National Assembly are important when they reflect the will of the sovereign,” the prime minister said.

There is massive corruption in the Bulgarian government, hence the need to hold seven snap elections after the 2020 uprising. The people will no longer have the ability to elect their representatives.  Citizens have no trust in their government and do not bother with voting, as voter turnout reached only 34.4% in June 2024. Yes, they may elect who rules Bulgaria, but the EU determines the direction the nation must take. Over 6.4 million citizens must convert to the euro on January 1.

Once Bulgaria joins, it will no longer be able to devalue its currency to remain competitive. That’s how small economies adjust in a floating system. But inside the eurozone, you’re stuck. All monetary policy decisions are made by the ECB in Frankfurt, which answers to no elected body. If Bulgaria experiences a downturn, they can’t cut rates or devalue—just like Greece in 2010. They will be told to cut pensions, raise taxes, and accept IMF mandates. That’s not sovereignty.

Bulgaria now has the luxury of taking on more debt through the European Central Bank. It may now join a war on behalf of the EU against a nation with which it had diplomatic ties throughout the years. Bulgaria is the poorest member of the union; Brussels is not going to allow it to sway the course of the EU agenda in any capacity.

Americans Charged $1 Billion to Buy Now Pay Later Platforms over Black Friday

Debt Burden

The private debt crisis, coupled with a consumer-based economy, is a recipe for disaster. Americans followed the age-old thinking of “buy now if it will cost more tomorrow” during Black Friday and Cyber Mondy sales, leading to the strongest year of sales on record. The problem is that a large percentage of buyers opted to “pay later” through Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) payment plans, which are contributing to nationwide household debt levels.

Over $1 billion in sales over Black Friday/Cyber Monday was charged through BNPL platforms, a 4.2% YoY increase, according to shopping data from Adobe, which predicts total BNPL spending will reach $20.2 billion by the end of the holiday season.

BNPL offers interest-free installment payment options and is listed as a payment option during most online checkouts. BNPL loans grew from 16.8 million in 2019 to 180 million in 2021 for a total of $2 billion. By 2022, popularity grew and nearly a quarter of US consumers reported using BNPL for a charge. Those with subprime credit are more likely to use this option. The younger generations who favor mobile purchases are also far more likely to use this option as they may not have a credit card. Worse, BNPL provides an illusion of stronger purchasing power.

About 41% of BNPL users were unable to make payments on time, up from 34%, and 60% of users hold multiple loans. These purchases are generally not for big ticket items. In fact, the average loan is $142 per transaction. Apparel, clothing, shoes, and accessories account for up to 45% of all BNPL orders, followed by electronics at 30%. There has been a rise in consumers using this method for essentials like grocery—a massive red flag for the economy.

Total US household debt hit a record $18.585 trillion in Q3 2025, up from $18.39 trillion in Q2. The average debt per consumer stands at around $105,000 per the New York Fed’s Household Debt and Credit Reporting. Around 70% of that debt ($13.072 trillion) is tied up in mortgages. Yet, American consumers are taking on more debt than necessary or sustainable and holiday spending using “pay later” options are a negative indication of what’s ahead.

Market Talk – December 11, 2025

Market Talk 2017

ASIA:
The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:
• NIKKEI 225 decreased 453.98 points or -0.90% to 50,148.82
• Shanghai decreased 27.178 points or -0.70% to 3,873.318
• Hang Seng decreased 10.27 points or -0.04% to 25,530.51
• ASX 200 increased 12.60 points or 0.15% to 8,592.00
• SENSEX increased 426.86 points or 0.51% to 84,818.13
• Nifty50 increased 140.55 points or 0.55% to 25,898.55
The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:
• AUDUSD decreased 0.00031 or -0.05% to 0.66726
• NZDUSD increased 0.00047 or 0.08% to 0.58207
• USDJPY decreased 0.798 or -0.51% to 155.187
• USDCNY decreased 0.01234 or -0.17% to 7.04969
The above data was collected around 12:24 EST.
Precious Metals:
• Gold increased 53.36 USD/t oz. or 1.26% to 4,279.00
• Silver increased 2.296 USD/t. oz. or 3.72% to 64.082
The above data was collected around 12:27 EST.
EUROPE/EMEA:
The major Europe stock markets had a green day today:
• CAC 40 increased 63.07 points or 0.79% to 8,085.76
• FTSE 100 increased 47.63 points or 0.49% to 9,703.16
• DAX 30 increased 164.47 points or 0.68% to 24,294.61
The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:
• EURUSD increased 0.00578 or 0.49% to 1.17531
• GBPUSD increased 0.00355 or 0.27% to 1.34184
• USDCHF decreased 0.00645 or -0.81% to 0.79340
The above data was collected around 12:37 EST.
NORTH AMERICA:

US/AMERICAS:

  • DJIA advanced by 646.26 points (1.34%) to 48,704.01

  • S&P 500 advanced by 14.32 points (0.21%) to 6,901.00

  • NASDAQ declined by 60.30 points (-0.26%) to 23,593.855

  • Russell 2000 advanced by 30.99 points (1.21%) to 2,590.606

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite advanced by 169.88 points (0.54%) to 31,660.73

  • TSX 60 advanced by 7.40 points (0.40%) to 1,854.83

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa advanced by 251.84 points (0.16%) to 159,326.81

ENERGY:
The oil markets had a negative day today:
• Crude Oil decreased 1.181 USD/BBL or -2.02% to 57.279
• Brent decreased 1.247 USD/BBL or -2.00% to 60.963
• Natural gas decreased 0.3703 USD/MMBtu or -8.06% to 4.2247
• Gasoline decreased 0.0337 USD/GAL or -1.88% to 1.7546
• Heating oil decreased 0.057 USD/GAL or -2.51% to 2.2160
The above data was collected around 12:43 EST.
• Top commodity gainers: Silver (3.72%), Orange Juice (4.32%), Zinc (4.20%) and Palladium (2.44%)
• Top commodity losers: Natural Gas (-8.06%), Heating Oil (-2.51%), Crude Oil (-2.02%) and Brent (-2.00%)
The above data was collected around 12:57 EST.
BONDS:
Japan 1.9310% (-3.22bp), US 2’s 3.52% (-0.033%), US 10’s 4.1240% (-3.1bps); US 30’s 4.78 (-0.007%), Bunds 2.8459% (-1.04bp), France 3.5560% (-2.15bp), Italy 3.5220% (-3.83bp), Turkey 30.68% (+203bp), Greece 3.475% (-2.6bp), Portugal 3.163% (-6.1bp); Spain 3.302% (-2.6bp) and UK Gilts 4.492% (-1.69bp)
The above data was collected around 13:01 EST.

PRIVATE BLOG – Silver & Capital Controls

PRIVATE BLOG

PRIVATE BLOG – Silver & Capital Controls


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Hawkish Members Outnumbered – Fed Cuts Rates for Third Consecutive Time

Federal Reserve Bank

The Federal Reserve was divided this December; hawkish members of the FOMC were outnumbered, and the central bank approved its third consecutive cut of 2025. “We’re in the high end of the range of neutral,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell added. “It″s so happened that we’ve cut three times. We have we haven’t made any decision about January, but as I said, we think we’re well positioned to wait and see how the economy performs.”

“The discussions we have are as good as any we’ve had in my 14 years at the Fed, very thoughtful, respectful, and you just have people who have strong views, and we come together and we reach a place where we can make a decision,” Powell said.

The ultimate 9-3 vote has brought the overnight rate down to 3.5%-3.75%. Governor Stephen Miran, appointed by Trump, naturally requested a steeper 0.5% reduction. Presidents Jeffrey Schmid of Kansas City and Austan Goolsbee of Chicago were the only members in favor of holding. Miran voted to hold rates during the past three FOMC meetings, but his time at the central bank comes to an end in January. Schmid voted “no” for the second consecutive time.

Of the 19 participants, four issued “soft dissents” expressing disagreement with the decision. Only 12 members have the right to vote on the final outcome. Remember that the president appoints the Board of Governors with Senate approval. Donald Trump sees rates through the eyes of a borrower and mistakenly believes bringing rates down to 0 would lead to business expansion and lower inflation. Trump now has the ability to replace members with candidates who support his dovish stance.

Inflation is driven by fiscal policy, not monetary policy. Congress can run deficits until the sun burns out, and the Fed has no authority to stop them. You can raise or lower interest rates all you want, for it will not change the fact that government spending has blown past anything sustainable. When you borrow without end, servicing that debt becomes a greater share of national income, and that is where the real inflationary pressure comes from. It has nothing to do with whether a handful of hawks around a conference table want 25 bps more. Once FDR hijacked the system and consolidated power in Washington, the Fed became an accessory to fiscal irresponsibility.

The system broke when the government swapped corporate paper for sovereign debt. Once the Fed became the buyer of last resort for federal spending, inflation became a political problem and not a monetary one.