Join Us at the 2023 World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida!

? Dates: November 17, 18, and 19 ? Location: Orlando, Florida, USA (or tune in from home with our virtual ticket options)

Are you ready to unlock the future of economics and finance? Prepare for an unforgettable World Economic Conference experience in sunny Orlando, Florida! This premier event is your gateway to insights, networking, and valuable resources that will supercharge your understanding of the global economy.

?️ What’s Included for In-Person Attendees:

1. Event Admission: Enjoy reserved seating assigned based on the order of ticket sales, ensuring you have a prime view of every presentation.
2. Presentation Slides: Gain access to the presentation slides from all speakers, allowing you to delve deeper into the topics discussed.
3. Video Recording: Can’t make it to a session? No worries! You’ll receive access to video recordings of all conference presentations, so you can catch up at your convenience.
4. WEC Event App: Connect with the conference on a whole new level. Access presentation slides, bonus reports, recordings, and more via the official WEC Event App.
5. Bonus Conference Materials: Get a package of bonus conference-related materials, including exclusive bonus reports and videos (as provided by Martin Armstrong).
6. Morning Information Sessions: Don’t miss out on important morning information sessions, screened on-site in the meeting room on Saturday and Sunday.
7. Networking Opportunities: Exclusive access to the Event App Networking Feature allows you to connect with fellow attendees, both in-person and virtual, fostering valuable professional relationships.
8. Culinary Delights: Savor delicious breakfast and lunch on Saturday and Sunday, prepared to keep you energized throughout the day.
9. Cocktail Reception: Kick off the conference in style at our Friday evening cocktail reception. Meet and mingle with fellow attendees while enjoying refreshing drinks.
10. Swag Bag: As a token of our appreciation, each in-person attendee will receive a swag bag filled with goodies, including an Armstrong Economics notebook, pen, and an event collector’s mug!

Unable to travel? We also have two different ticket options for those wishing to attend virtually! 

Don’t miss this opportunity to be part of a global gathering of economic and financial minds. Secure your spot at the World Economic Conference in Orlando, Florida, and gain the knowledge, connections, and resources you need to thrive in the world of finance and economics.

Space is limited, so act now and reserve your seat! Visit our Events page to register and join us in sunny Orlando this November.

Now available at all major retailers!

The eBook will be available shortly.

The second edition of “The Plot to Seize Russia – The Untold History” is now available for purchase in paperback and hardcover on Amazon and Barnes and Noble. The ebook will be available shortly.

Book description:

“Take care of Russia,” Boris Yeltsin said as he departed his presidency in August 1999. These words were directed at current Russian president, Vladimir Putin. Yeltsin specifically picked Putin as his predecessor to prevent the takeover of Russia.

So, who was Yeltsin warning against? Newly declassified documents from the Clinton Administration prove that there was a plot to rig the Russian election of 2000. These never-before-seen documents confirm numerous attempts to implement pro-Western policies using the Russian oligarchy headed by Boris Berezovsky.

On the other side were the communists who desired a return to the glory days of the Soviet Union. As one of the largest international hedge fund managers, author Martin Armstrong found himself in the middle of perhaps the greatest espionage, or attempt at a regime change for Russia, in modern history.

The Plot to Seize Russia pulls back the curtain to expose the most extraordinary attempt to seize power in modern history, but with the pen rather than armies. These declassified documents reveal a plot that has altered our thinking about the relations between the United States and Russia. The thirst for power comes seething through every line of these papers that alter our perception of reality, change the course of history, and now threaten us with World War III.

Visa has just unveiled a new suite of artificial intelligence tools designed to overhaul how credit card disputes are handled, and once again this is being presented as a simple evolution toward efficiency and improved customer experience, yet when you step back and examine the scale of what is unfolding, this is clearly part of a much broader structural shift within the financial system toward centralization and automation.

The numbers alone should make that obvious, with Visa processing over 106 million disputes globally in 2025, representing a 35% increase since 2019, and that type of exponential growth is not something that can be resolved through incremental improvements, it requires a complete restructuring of how the system functions, which is precisely what Visa is now implementing.

They are introducing six AI-driven tools split between merchants and financial institutions, designed to intercept disputes before they even occur, automate responses, and consolidate the entire process into a unified framework where decisions are guided by network-wide data rather than individual judgment, and once you move into that framework, the human element is steadily removed and replaced by algorithmic consistency.

Every transaction, dispute, and outcome begins to follow the same predictive logic, and that is where the real transformation begins. Once behavior is standardized across a global financial network, control naturally follows.

This is exactly the progression I have warned about for years when discussing the digitization of money, because people continue to look at these developments as isolated improvements rather than understanding that they are components of a much larger system, where transactions become digital, then tracked, then analyzed, and ultimately controlled, and Visa’s expansion into predictive dispute management clearly places the system into that analytical phase moving toward control.

The introduction of AI models removes discretion. Document analysis tools that auto-generate responses eliminate interpretation, and centralized platforms that unify workflows create a single point of oversight, all of which together form the infrastructure necessary for a fully automated financial system where decisions are no longer case-by-case but system-wide.

This ties directly into what I have said about central bank digital currencies, because the real objective behind these systems has never been convenience but visibility, as governments and institutions cannot regulate or control what they cannot see, and once all transactions are processed digitally within centralized frameworks, that visibility becomes absolute.

Visa itself is not a central bank, but it operates at the core of the global payments system, and what is being constructed here is the foundational infrastructure that governments will inevitably leverage as they move toward broader monetary control systems, since a CBDC cannot function without the ability to monitor, analyze, and influence transactions in real time, and this is precisely the type of system being built.

While this is being marketed as a way to simplify disputes or improve efficiency, the broader implication is that the financial system is being transformed into a closed-loop network where every transaction is monitored, analyzed, and ultimately governed by machine logic. This is not the final stage but rather a transition toward a system where control over capital becomes increasingly centralized as confidence in traditional structures continues to decline.

The latest data confirms what has quietly been building for years, and now it is no longer anecdotal but systemic, as roughly 64% of parents with Gen Z children aged 18 to 28 say their adult kids still rely on them financially for housing, money, or basic support, while 56% of those parents admit that this arrangement is putting strain on their own finances, which means we are looking at a generational shift where adulthood itself is being delayed on a scale not seen in modern times.

This is being explained away as an economic problem, with references to high costs of living, weak entry-level wages, and housing affordability, and while those factors are real, they are not the full story because previous generations faced economic hardship as well, yet they still transitioned into independence, and what we are seeing now is not just economic pressure but a breakdown in the cultural expectation of self-sufficiency.

There is a dangerous normalization taking place where parents are no longer helping temporarily but are effectively subsidizing adult lifestyles, and in many cases this support is not minor, with studies showing parents spending well over $1,000 per month on adult children while simultaneously neglecting their own retirement savings, which is creating a cascading financial problem where one generation is undermining its own future to sustain another.

At the same time, nearly half of Gen Z adults describe their financial lives as “messy,” and many are delaying core milestones such as moving out, getting married, or establishing careers, which historically marked the transition into adulthood, and when those milestones are postponed, the entire structure of society shifts because independence is replaced with prolonged dependency.

What is particularly troubling is that this dependence is increasingly being rationalized rather than challenged, because instead of pushing young adults toward independence, the narrative has shifted to accommodating the situation indefinitely, and that is where the long-term damage occurs since cycles are driven not just by economics but by behavior.

I have said many times that when a society begins to lose its work ethic and sense of personal responsibility, it is already entering a phase of decline, because economic systems depend on individuals striving for independence and productivity, and once that incentive weakens, growth slows and stagnation follows.

This AI is getting really amazing

PRIVATE BLOG – Gold, Israel & Tactical Nukes

Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or to learn more, please visit Ask-Socrates.com.

https://ask-socrates.com/

PRIVATE BLOG – The Coming Cycle of Famine

Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for Socrates or to learn more, please visit Ask-Socrates.com.

https://ask-socrates.com/

Zelensky is no different than Netanyahu. Neither one cares about anyone but themselves. The Hungary election was rigged no different than Romania. Zelensky even sent in people to stage big protests paying them with US tax payer’s spoils. He is already pushing to join NATO to wage war against Russia and will try to get NATO to stage nukes in Ukraine. Putin will respond by staging nukes in Iran.

Pro-Ukrainian factions in Brussels are celebrating Hungary’s election results. As the only sound mind trying to prevent war with Russia, they painted Viktor as an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, regularly blocking European Union initiatives to fund Ukraine, the most corrupt country in Europe. In his campaign’s last gasp, Viktor tried to save his country and exposed Ukraine as a corrupt faltering economy that it is.

Hungary was devastated after both World War I and World War II, though the nature of the destruction was different in each case. After WWI, the country’s “destruction” was primarily political and territorial with hyperinflation, while after WWII, it was physical and human.

Magyar is looking to rebuild Hungary’s relationship with the EU, removing one obstacle to stronger action against Russia. Magyar is a globalist and will take Hungary into World War III with Russia. He absurdly thinks a third time will be the charm.

Reports indicate that a wave of used EVs is beginning to hit the market as leases expire, forcing automakers to rethink how they handle pricing and inventory. What was once sold as the inevitable future is now a dud cause with minimal demand. When those vehicles return to the secondary market, they must compete on price, performance, and practicality, not ideology. That is where the cracks begin to show.

This ties directly into what I have warned about with government attempts to force economic outcomes through policy. The Biden administration pushed aggressively toward electrification under the banner of climate policy and Net Zero, but this was never purely about the environment. It was about directing capital, restructuring industry, and attempting to control long-term consumption patterns. The problem is that markets do not respond to mandates the way politicians expect.

Nearly 4,000 US car dealers warned the Biden Administration that consumer demand would not keep pace with supply. You cannot force consumers into a product they are not ready to adopt, especially in an environment where the cost of living is already rising.

Electric vehicles still account for only about 7–8% of total US vehicle sales, yet federal policy aimed to push that figure toward 50% or more by 2032 through emissions rules that effectively function as mandates. At the same time, EVs remain significantly more expensive, with average transaction prices roughly $8,000 higher than comparable gas vehicles.

Government attempted to accelerate this transition through incentives and mandates. The Inflation Reduction Act introduced tax credits of up to $7,500 per vehicle, effectively subsidizing purchases to stimulate demand. Meanwhile, federal policy called for the entire government fleet to transition to zero-emission vehicles by 2035, impacting hundreds of thousands of vehicles.

You can already see the early signs of that correction in the used EV market. As more vehicles come off lease, prices are under pressure because supply is increasing faster than demand. Automakers are now adjusting strategies, trying to manage resale values and prevent a collapse in pricing. This is the same pattern we have seen in other sectors. When supply is artificially expanded through policy, it eventually overwhelms real demand.

The used car market in general is far beneath the levels witnessed in 2022. EVs are far more difficult to offload. Industry estimates show that more than 300,000 electric vehicles will come off lease in 2026 alone, with projections rising toward 500,000 or more as we move into 2027. This is a surge of supply that the market must absorb whether demand is ready or not.

New EV sales have already dropped 28% year-over-year in early 2026, while used EV sales have risen 12%, reaching nearly 93,500 units in a single quarter. Pricing confirms that shift. Used EV prices have fallen dramatically, in some cases dropping as much as 40% over the past year, and are now within roughly $1,300 of comparable gasoline vehicles. That is a market adjusting to oversupply. When prices fall that quickly, it reflects a mismatch between production and real demand.

Cost, convenience, infrastructure, and reliability all matter more than political objectives. The government will always fail when it attempts to artificially stimulate demand.

Banking crises are often misunderstood because the visible panic comes at the end, not the beginning. The real stress builds beneath the surface. In the United States, banks operate on fractional reserves, meaning deposits are not fully held in cash. They are loaned out, invested, and leveraged.

We saw a glimpse of how fragile this system can be in 2023, when several regional banks failed within days, triggering emergency interventions. The Federal Reserve responded by expanding liquidity facilities, injecting hundreds of billions into the system to stabilize deposits. That response prevented immediate collapse, but it did not eliminate the underlying vulnerability.

The issue is confidence. As long as depositors believe their money is accessible, the system functions. Once that belief is questioned, behavior changes quickly. Withdrawals accelerate. Liquidity tightens. The system comes under pressure.

There are over 4,000 commercial banks in the United States, many of which are exposed to risks tied to interest rates, commercial real estate, and asset valuations. As rates have risen, the value of long-term bonds held by banks has declined, creating unrealized losses across the system. That is a structural problem, not a temporary one.

The next phase of this cycle is not necessarily widespread bank failures. It is restricted access. Withdrawal limits, delays, and policy changes that slow the movement of funds can be implemented quickly if stress emerges. These measures are often presented as stabilizing actions, but they signal a shift in control.

Once people begin to question whether they can access their deposits freely, the system changes. That is when behavior shifts from trust to caution.

China is not reacting to events, it is executing a long-term strategy that has been unfolding quietly for years. The latest data confirms that it continues to accumulate gold month after month as part of a deliberate effort to reduce reliance on the existing monetary system. The People’s Bank of China has now extended its gold buying streak to roughly 15–16 consecutive months, bringing total holdings to approximately 2,300 tonnes, which equates to about 74 million ounces and represents close to 10% of its total reserves, placing it among the largest official holders globally.

This steady accumulation is not a short-term hedge against volatility, it is a structural repositioning that reflects a recognition that the global financial system is built on confidence in sovereign debt, particularly US Treasuries, and that confidence is becoming increasingly fragile as global debt levels exceed $310 trillion. China is not making headlines with dramatic announcements, instead it is quietly converting portions of its reserves into gold, which is the only reserve asset that carries no counterparty risk and cannot be sanctioned or frozen in the same way as foreign currency holdings.

At the same time, global trends reinforce this strategy as central banks worldwide have been buying gold at one of the fastest paces in modern history, often exceeding 800 to 1,000 tonnes annually, while the dollar’s share of global reserves has steadily declined from around 66% to roughly 57% over the past decade. This shift is not driven by ideology but by practicality, because as geopolitical tensions rise and financial systems become increasingly fragmented, nations seek assets that provide independence from external control.

China’s approach is methodical and patient, and that is what makes it significant because it is not waiting for a crisis to unfold, it is preparing in advance by building a reserve base that can withstand a loss of confidence in sovereign debt markets. This aligns directly with the broader pattern we are seeing, where central banks are not abandoning the system outright but are quietly hedging against its potential breakdown.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, about half the cargo ships are headed to the US to get oil. Some have claimed that Trump is trying to replace the Middle East. This seems to be a conspiracy theory that contradicts what you have reported. What do you make of that?

RW

ANSWER: I know, there are wild conspiracy theories being proposed. I have even heard that Trump did this to force the EU to collapse. Sending the world into recession/depression is absurd. Trump is trying to sell more widgets, not fewer. Plus, rising oil prices put the Midterms at risk. That just makes no sense. Most of these conspiracy theories assume the people in government are smart – that is NOT the case.

As for tankers, there are not enough in the world to transport all the oil that needs to be transported. We have had some of the world’s largest shippers as clients for decades. There is what is known as “Tonne-miles” (or tonne-kilometers), which is the standard unit for measuring freight transportation volume, and it’s a key metric for understanding crude oil logistics.

A single ton-mile represents moving one ton of cargo over a distance of one mile. In the oil industry, a “ton” of crude oil is approximately 7.5 barrels. This metric allows you to directly compare the total transport “work” done by different modes (pipeline, rail, ship, truck), regardless of the shipment size or distance.

The most notable shift in the data is from water carriers to pipelines. In 1980, water carriers held a slight lead over pipelines for crude oil ton-miles. By 1999, pipelines had grown their share to over 75%, while water carriers had dropped to under 24%.

On a global scale, the focus shifts to seaborne trade, which is measured in tonne-miles (the metric equivalent). Recent data shows this is a massive and growing industry, currently being reshaped by geopolitical events. Global oil tonne-miles (for all products) grew from roughly 15.3 trillion in 2020 to 16.4 trillion in 2024, an increase of about 6%. Crude oil itself constitutes roughly 70% of total global seaborne tonne-miles.

In 2025, the global figure stood at approximately 12.2 trillion (year-to-date), indicating a contraction. This decline is partly due to the rerouting of tankers away from the Red Sea because of Houthi attacks, which caused tanker tonne-miles to hit a five-year high earlier in 2024 before the current dip. The reason this is critical to our analysis is that this is a core measure of economic activity. The total volume of crude oil moved is a key input for GDP figures, while changes in tonne-miles affect the costs of energy and consumer goods.

This allows for a direct comparison of efficiency between modes. For example, pipelines and large tankers are far more energy-efficient per ton-mile than trucks or rail. Some look at this also as a carbon footprint and other environmental costs of transporting crude oil over long distances. Energy companies and governments rely on tonne-mile forecasts to decide where to build new pipelines, expand ports, or invest in rail infrastructure.

The longer the trip to transport oil the higher the cost to ship that oil. Therefore, we have another variable here regarding the cost of shipping. On top of all of this, the claim that the United States is somehow displacing Iran is really absurd. The United States is a NET IMPORTER of crude oil. We may be able to facilitate some for geopolitical reasons and to try to keep prices down, but the US can in no possible way replace the Middle East. Who ever makes up these stories are really beyond hope.