Market Talk – December 10, 2020

Posted Dec 10, 2020 by Martin Armstrong |

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ASIA:

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

NIKKEI 225 decreased 61.70 points or -0.23% to 26,756.24
Shanghai increased 1.31 points or 0.04% to 3,373.28
Hang Seng decreased 92.25 points or -0.35% to 26,410.59
ASX 200 decreased 45.40 points or -0.67% to 6,683.10
Kospi decreased 9.01 points or -0.33% to 2,746.46
SENSEX decreased 143.62 points or -0.31% to 45,959.88
Nifty50 decreased 50.80 points or -0.38% to 13,478.30

The major Asian currency markets had a green day today:

AUDUSD increased 0.00808 or 1.09% to 0.75165
NZDUSD increased 0.00589 or 0.84% to 0.70750
USDJPY increased 0.1 or 0.10% to 104.39
USDCNY increased 0.01344 or 0.21% to 6.54181

Precious Metals:

Gold decreased 4.31 USD/t oz. or -0.23% to 1,834.80
Silver increased 0.059 USD/t. oz or 0.25% to 23.980

Some economic news from last night:

Japan:

BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions (Q4) increased from 0.1 to 21.6

Foreign Bonds Buying increased from 372.5B to 1,252.7B

Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks decreased from 457.9B to 42.1B

PPI (MoM) (Nov) increased from -0.2% to 0.0%

PPI (YoY) (Nov) decreased from -2.1% to -2.2%

Australia:

MI Inflation Expectations remain the same at 3.5%

New Zealand:

Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) (Nov) decreased from 8.2% to 1.4%

Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) decreased from 8.8% to 0.1%

Indonesia:

Retail Sales (YoY) (Oct) decreased from -8.7% to -14.9%

EUROPE/EMEA:

The major European stock markets had a mixed day:

CAC 40 increased 2.83 points or 0.05% to 5,549.65
FTSE 100 increased 35.47 points or 0.54% to 6,599.76
DAX 30 decreased 44.53 points or -0.33% to 13,295.73

The major European currency markets had a mixed day today:

EURUSD increased 0.00499 or 0.41% to 1.21288
GBPUSD decreased 0.00871 or -0.65% to 1.32749
USDCHF decreased 0.00231 or -0.26% to 0.88717

Some economic news from Europe today:

UK：

RICS House Price Balance (Nov) decreased from 67% to 66%

Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Dec) increased from 42.8 to 45.2

NIESR GDP Estimate decreased from 10.3% to 1.5%

U.K. Construction Output (YoY) (Oct) increased from -10.0% to -7.5%

Construction Output (MoM) (Oct) decreased from 2.9% to 1.0%

GDP (MoM) decreased from 1.1% to 0.4%

Index of Services decreased from 14.2% to 9.7%

Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) increased from -6.3% to -5.5%

Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) increased from 0.5% to 1.3%

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Oct) increased from 0.2% to 1.7%

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Oct) increased from -7.9% to -7.1%

Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change decreased from 15.5% to 10.2%

Trade Balance (Oct) decreased from -9.35B to -12.00B

Trade Balance Non-EU (Oct) decreased from -1.65B to -4.54B

Germany:

Germany Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Dec) increased from 47.09 to 51.27

Norway:

Core CPI YTD (Nov) decreased from 3.4% to 2.9%

Core Inflation (MoM) (Nov) decreased from 0.1% to -0.4%

CPI (MoM) decreased from 0.3% to -0.7%

CPI (YoY) (Nov) decreased from 1.7% to 0.7%

PPI (YoY) (Nov) increased from -6.0% to -3.4%

France:

French Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) remain the same at 1.6%

France Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Dec) increased from 36.24 to 39.43

Italy：

Italy Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Dec) increased from 32.83 to 37.17

Euro Zone:

ECB LTRO decreased from 174.5B to 50.4B

Deposit Facility Rate (Dec) remain the same at -0.50%

ECB Marginal Lending Facility remain the same at 0.25%

ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec) remain the same at 0.00%

US/AMERICAS:

Airbnb made its debut on the Nasdaq this Thursday, doubling its set IPO of $68 per share. The stock closed at $144.71 this Thursday as investors bank on the hopes of the coronavirus vaccination permitting travel once again. Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky said that he is not concerned about the coronavirus affecting business after the company saw its largest drop between April and May when business declined 80%. The CEO told reporters that “losing focus” is the biggest risk to their business. “I think that focus doesn’t just save money and make the company more efficient, it actually leads to a lot of growth,” he told reporters.

President-elect Joe Biden announced his three-point plan to combat the coronavirus within his first 100 days of office, channeling sentiments from Roosevelt’s presidency. Although he admitted the virus will not disappear after 100 days, he is hoping that new restrictions will curb the spread. Americans will be asked to wear masks for the first 100 days. Health care workers and long-term nursing facilities will receive the first line of vaccinations, while his administration will strive to vaccinate as many people as possible afterward with the goal of reach 100 million people in the first 100 days. Additionally, Biden stated he will aim to reopen schools so that children may resume in-person learning.

Christine Elliott, Ontario’s health minister, stated that residents will receive proof that they have received the coronavirus vaccine. Although the vaccine will not be mandatory, those who choose not to be vaccinated with face restrictions. Elliot said that proof of vaccination is “going to be really important for people to have for travel purposes, perhaps for work purposes, for going to theatres or cinemas or any other places where people will be in closer physical contact when we get through the worst of the pandemic.”

Canadian Premier Jason Kenney announced that Alberta is going back into a partial lockdown. Gyms, bars, and dine-in restaurants have been ordered to shut their doors. Social gatherings have been banned, indoor as well as outdoor, and there is a mandatory work-from-home order in place. Retail businesses and religious places of worship can open at a 15% capacity limit. The restrictions may last until January 12, 2021.

US Market Closings:

Dow declined 69.55 points or -0.23% to 29,999.26
S&P 500 declined 4.71 points or -0.13% to 3,668.1
Nasdaq advanced 66.86 points or 0.54% to 12,405.81
Russell 2000 advanced 20.56 points or 1.08% to 1,922.7

Canada Market Closings:

TSX Composite advanced 33.48 points or 0.19% to 17,593.34
TSX 60 advanced 1.22 points or 0.12% to 1,049.35

Brazil Market Closing:

Bovespa advanced 2,127.47 points or 1.88% to 115,128.63

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a green day today:

Crude Oil increased 2.03 USD/BBL or 4.46% to 47.5500
Brent increased 2.03 USD/BBL or 4.15% to 50.8900
Natural gas increased 0.124 USD/MMBtu or 5.08% to 2.5660
Gasoline increased 0.0552 USD/GAL or 4.33% to 1.3311
Heating oil increased 0.0592 USD/GAL or 4.23% to 1.4581

The above data was collected around 11:10 EST on Thursday.

Top commodity gainers: Natural Gas (5.08%), Crude Oil (4.46%), Gasoline (4.33%), and Heating Oil (4.23%)
Top commodity losers: Orange Juice (-2.11%), Sugar (-1.27%), Rubber (-0.66%), and Bitumen (-0.66%)

The above data was collected around 11:17 EST on Thursday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.02%(+0bp), US 2’s 0.14%(-0.008%), US 10’s 0.93%(-1bps); US 30’s 1.67%(-0.014%), Bunds -0.62% (-2bp), France -0.37% (-1bp), Italy 0.54% (+0bp), Turkey 12.87% (+3bp), Greece 0.62% (+0bp), Portugal -0.02% (-1bp); Spain 0.03% (+1bp) and UK Gilts 0.21% (-5bp).