Market Talk – April 26, 2021

Posted Apr 26, 2021 by Martin Armstrong |

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ASIA:

China will launch a series of promotional activities, including a new consumer goods expo in southern Hainan province, in May to boost spending as the Chinese retail sector recovers from COVID-19-induced consumer caution. Expanding domestic consumption is a priority in China’s “dual circulation” economic strategy, first highlighted by President Xi Jinping last year in May, which also called for a reduced dependence on foreign markets. China’s retail sales surged 34.2% year-on-year in March, surpassing a 28.0% gain expected by analysts and stronger than the 33.8% jump in January-February. More significantly, retail revenues were 12.9% higher than March 2019 – before the pandemic.

Japan’s services prices showed signs of a pick-up in March as advertising and transportation fees rose, data showed on Monday, suggesting the economy was recovering moderately from last year’s severe hit as the coronavirus pandemic took hold. But the third state of emergency, rolled out on Sunday to combat a resurgence of new COVID-19 infections, clouds the outlook, with requests for retailers to close likely to hurt consumption. The services producer price index, which tracks the price companies charge each other for services, rose 0.7% in March from a year earlier, BOJ data showed on Monday. It was the first increase in six months and followed a flat reading in February.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

NIKKEI 225 increased 105.60 points or 0.36% to 29,126.23
Shanghai decreased 33.00 points or -0.95% to 3,441.17
Hang Seng decreased 125.92 points or -0.43% to 28,952.83
ASX 200 decreased 15.10 points or -0.21% to 7,045.60
Kospi increased 31.43 points or 0.99% to 3,217.53
SENSEX increased 508.06 points or 1.06% to 48,386.51
Nifty50 increased 143.65 points or 1.00% to 14,485.00

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

AUDUSD increased 0.00579 or 0.75% to 0.78029
NZDUSD increased 0.00357 or 0.50% to 0.72317
USDJPY increased 0.28 or 0.25% to 108.14
USDCNY decreased 0.01351 or -0.21% to 6.47595

Precious Metals:

Gold increased 1.49 USD/t oz. or 0.08% to 1,778.67
Silver increased 0.17 USD/t. oz or 0.63% to 26.155

Some economic news from last night:

Japan:

Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI) (YoY) increased from 0.0% to 0.7%

Some economic news from today:

Japan:

Coincident Indicator (MoM) decreased from 2.9% to -1.8%

Leading Index (MoM) increased from -0.8% to 0.6%

Singapore:

Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar) decreased from 16.5% to 7.6%

Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 1.5% to -1.7%

Indonesia:

Foreign Direct Investment (YoY) (Q1) increased from 5.50% to 14.00%

Motorbike Sales (YoY) (Mar) increased from -30.80% to -7.20%

EUROPE/EMEA:

Britain looks set to see faster economic growth than the United States this year as the country races ahead with its vaccination programafter its slump in 2020, Goldman Sachs said on Sunday. The bank said in a note to clients that it now expects British gross domestic product to grow by a “striking” 7.8% this year, “above our expectations for the U.S.” Previously, Goldman had expected Britain’s economy would grow by 7.1% this year and its forecast for U.S. growth in 2021 stands at 7.2%, helped by U.S. President Joe Biden’s huge fiscal stimulus programme. A report published by Reuters poll of analysts showed an average forecast for growth of 5.0% in the UK, the world’s fifth-biggest economy, in 2021. The International Monetary Fund has projected a 5.3% expansion.

The German government is set to upgrade its growth forecast for this year as industry holds up well to the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said on Saturday. Altmaier said we expect a growth of 3.0 percent. Europe’s biggest economy shrank by 4.9 percent in 2020 as restrictions to curb the pandemic hit many sectors.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel says vaccinated people, as well as those who have recovered from Covid, will have more freedoms – and has promised that the strict priority list for vaccines will be lifted in June at the latest. Speaking after talks with the regional premiers of Germany’s 16 states, Merkel said people who have received both jabs should “obviously” be allowed to get a haircut or go into a shop without having to show a negative coronavirus test, and be exempt from quarantining after close contact with an infected person. The same would apply to people who can prove they have recovered from a coronavirus infection, for instance by showing a positive PCR test that is at least 28 days old.

The major Europe stock markets had a green day:

CAC 40 increased 17.58 points or 0.28% to 6,275.52
FTSE 100 increased 24.56 points or 0.35% to 6,963.12
DAX 30 increased 16.72 points or 0.11% to 15,296.34

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

EURUSD decreased 0.0021 or -0.17% to 1.20764
GBPUSD increased 0.00078 or 0.06% to 1.38852
USDCHF increased 0.00152 or 0.17% to 0.91504

Some economic news from Europe today:

Spain:

Spanish PPI (YoY) increased from 0.8% to 6.3%

Germany:

German Business Expectations (Apr) decreased from 100.3 to 99.5

German Current Assessment (Apr) increased from 93.1 to 94.1

German Ifo Business Climate Index (Apr) increased from 96.6 to 96.8

US/AMERICAS:

The White House announced this Monday that it will share over 60 million AstraZeneca vaccines with other counties. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has not authorized the controversial vaccine for use in the US. Numerous countries temporarily banned the vaccine or placed age restrictions on specific vaccination due to side effects. Last week, both the Prime Minister of Canada and the President of Mexico publicly took the AstraZeneca vaccination to demonstrate that they did not fear the side effects. Still, the US is now saying it has enough vaccinations to provide to every American by next month and does not need the AstraZeneca vaccine to meet the quota.

Single-family homes in the US soared 20.7% this March at a seasonally adjusted rate of 1.021 million, according to the Census Bureau. Sales have soared 66.8% above the estimate made in March of 2020 of only 612,000 homes. Homes are flying off the market, as new data shows 59% of homes have sold within two weeks of going on the market. Redfin data also showed that 42% of homes sold above the asking price as bidding wars over limited supply continues. The median sales price as of March 2021 nationwide is $330,800, with an average price of $396,800. Additionally, buyers are doing what they can to act fast on available properties, with Redfin reporting that 18% of buyers waived home appraisals and 13% waived home inspections.

For the first time, Dr. Fauci delivered a timeline for when he believes the pandemic will die down in the US — “within a few weeks.” The seven-day new case average is down 14% on a weekly basis with 58,164 new cases. Reluctant to provide a timeframe in the past, Dr. Fauci said, “literally within a few weeks, we’re going to start to see a turning around of the dynamics.” At the time of this writing, over 42% of Americans have already been vaccinated against the virus.

US Market Closings:

Dow declined 61.92 points or -0.18% to 33,981.57
S&P 500 advanced 7.48 points or 0.18% to 4,187.65
Nasdaq advanced 121.97 points or 0.87% to 14,138.78
Russell 2000 advanced 26.15 points or 1.15% to 2,298.01

Canada Market Closings:

TSX Composite advanced 68.23 points or 0.36% to 19,170.56
TSX 60 advanced 4.05 points or 0.36% to 1,140.45

Brazil Market Closing:

Bovespa advanced 64.55 points or 0.05% to 120,594.61

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

Crude Oil decreased 0.37 USD/BBL or -0.60% to 61.7700
Brent decreased 0.54 USD/BBL or -0.82% to 65.5700
Natural gas increased 0.033 USD/MMBtu or 1.21% to 2.7630
Gasoline decreased 0.0232 USD/GAL or -1.16% to 1.9725
Heating oil decreased 0.0035 USD/GAL or -0.19% to 1.8700
Top commodity gainers: Wheat (3.73%), Coffee (2.92%), Lumber (3.50%) and Corn (3.51%)
Top commodity losers: Bitumen (-1.46%), Palm Oil (-0.84%), Brent (-0.82%), and Gasoline (-1.16%)

The above data was collected around 11:40 EST on Monday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.0790%(+1bp), US 2’s 0.17%(+0.015%), US 10’s 1.5720%(+0.5bps); US 30’s 2.2445%(-0.01%), Bunds -0.2530% (+0bp), France -0.0083% (-0bp), Italy 0.8010% (+1.7bp), Turkey 17.95% (+15bp), Greece 0.926% (+4bp), Portugal 0.414% (+0.7bp); Spain 0.407% (+0.49bp) and UK Gilts 0.758% (+1.3bp).