QUESTION: Hi Martin,
I work on defense issues for my job, but I am no Neocon. Second Strike works just fine too or more likely “Launch Under Attack” (LUA), and even with older weapons. Everybody goes down together and most likely via miscalculation especially given possible Nuclear Winter which given Volcano data actually looks plausible. No prior intention is required to commit National suicide. Read Admiral Richards (STRATCOM) latest Congressional testimony yesterday. A “Crisis In Nuclear Deterrence” and it could be the Brits who initiate any escalation and not the U.S.by the way. Same Trident-D-5 SLBM’s and Russia could not tell them apart.
There are some Neocons who are aware of your work like Bill Kristol, and others. They will never allow the shift from West to East to occur. I have actually heard some of them say that. It is their hold card. By the way, could you clarify when you believe the full-scale war will break out? You have suggested Q-1 2023, 2024 (especially May 7/8 ECM turn), after 2024, 2027, and 2028. I understand it may escalate in stages, but how long does Socrates believe we have before it goes full scale? My guess is June 2024 as Economic factors are ignored by “The Post Cold Warriors”.
Best,
Ken.
COMMENT: Marty, you are right again. Admiral Richard agreed with you that nuclear arms are no longer a deterrent to war. The Ukraine conflict shows Russia was not afraid of nuclear weapons from NATO or the US. It is all economics.
Thanks for what you do.
KM
ANSWER: I know virtually every intelligence agency looks at Socrates. They all want to know the forecasts of Socrates, for it’s not my personal opinion. All I can hope to do is scream loud enough that perhaps I can reduce the amplitude of events. But Socrates has NEVER been wrong on any geopolitical forecast in my lifetime. Personally, we all have opinions. But that will also change week to week based on events. That’s why personal opinion will not cut it, for this is far more complex than we can even speculate.
I really do not care what the Neocons do. They will never prevent the shift of the economic power from the West to the East. China has surpassed Europe, and it is neck and neck with the USA now. This is a cycle that cannot be defeated. All they are doing is fulfilling the cycle with this nonsense. World peace is created by interdependency, as was the case with the Roman Empire and the Pax Romanum, Roman peace.
I am doing a full report on the question. Tensions are rising post-2020 after they got Biden in office. We will see escalation begin in 2023, but the prospect of a world war is more likely post-2024. I question if Putin will be there during that time any more than Biden. Putin will be followed by even hardline advocates, for they are well aware that this Proxy War is really a war between the USA and Russia.
Yes, the head of U.S. Strategic Command Adm. Charles Richard, who does oversee the nuclear arsenal, warned Congress that the USA faces a heightened nuclear deterrence risk when it comes to Russia and China. The cutting of the defense budget and even Biden’s threat to dishonorably discharge any member of the military who was not vaccinated has shown that the US thinks it can control the world with the threat of nuclear weapons while reducing the conventional capability.
Adm. Richard warned: “We are facing a crisis deterrence dynamic right now that we have only seen a few times in our nation’s history.” He continued stating bluntly: “The war in Ukraine and China’s nuclear trajectory — their strategic breakout — demonstrates that we have a deterrence and assurance gap based on the threat of limited nuclear employment.” He further warned that China is “watching the war in Ukraine closely and will likely use nuclear coercion to their advantage in the future. Their intent is to achieve the military capability to reunify Taiwan by 2027 if not sooner.”
Nuclear weapons are no longer a deterrent. They did not stop the US from going into Iraq, the Vietnamese War, or this one in Ukraine. The idea that building nuclear capability will somehow compel world peace is a delusion. This is essentially what Admiral Richard has scolded Congress about. The US conventionally is not a match for Russia and China. North Korea alone has an army of 1.5 million. That is double the size of both sides in Ukraine right now.
