QUESTION: have you ever tested Punxsutawney Phil‘s predictions of spring with your forecasts?
how often was he correct?
TT
REPLY: The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club has kept track of Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions. Actually, his forecasts have been far better than the climate change/global warming crowd who said snow would cease to exist and we should all have died after drowning from the rising sea levels. When we look at Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions, out of the 15 times when he did not see his shadow, which is supposed to predict an early spring, as he did here in 2020, he actually got it correct seven times which gives him an accuracy rate of 47%!
Back in 1989, the UN environmental official ACTUALLY FORECAST that “entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.” Yes, that was the forecast back in 1989 (see Snopes).
I have stated many times that these forecasts for climate change are so bogus that it is just stupid why anyone would even listen to this nonsense. They are all entirely based upon linear projections and are completely void of ANY cyclical analysis they even apply to flu vaccines. These activists assume that whatever trend is in motion will continue in motion because they attribute everything to a single cause and effect — humans and CO2. That is like saying the Dow Jones Industrials went higher by 5% last year so it will do the same every year for eternity.
Oh let me see. Irving Fisher did that in 1929 pronouncing the market reached a new permanent level of higher prices. He famously predicted, three days before the crash, “Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” Irving Fisher stated on October 21st, 1929 that the market was “only shaking out of the lunatic fringe” and went on to explain why he felt the prices still had not caught up with their real value and should go much higher. Then on Wednesday, October 23, 1929, Fisher announced in a banker’s meeting “security values in most instances were not inflated.” For months after the Crash, he continued to assure investors that a recovery was just around the corner. Once the Great Depression became obvious, Fisher finally warned that the ongoing drastic DEFLATION was the cause of the monumental cascading insolvencies that were unfolding since deflation increased the real value of debts fixed in dollar terms.
Once someone takes a major position based upon opinion, they will usually go down with that opinion refusing to admit a mistake in personal judgment. NOTHING is exempt from cyclical movement. There are cyclical patterns in our heads we call brainwaves. Our heartbeats are in a cyclical fashion because it cannot continually pump blood. The sun is the same. We are headed into Solar Minimum because the sun also beats like our hearts.
But the climate change activists refuse to attribute any change in climate to the sun. At least the ancients worshiped the sun as a god because they understood all life is possible ONLY because of the sun. Even our Statute of Liberty is the image of the old sun god with rays of light beaming from her head.
