COMMENT: Marty, I just had to write to congratulate you on Socrates’s truly amazing ability to forecast so many markets and economic statistics without opinions that are far too often colored by personal biases. I made a friendly bet with a friend in the bank that unemployment would start to rise in July. I won. This is the most amazing tool anyone has ever created. You really do deserve the Nobel Prize, even though you question their biased assignments.
JB
REPLY: Thank you. Don’t worry. They will never consider me for a Nobel Prize, at least while I’m living. If you look at the array, yes, July was when it should have turned up with a change in trend. This will most likely continue overall into the election.
The U.S. economy and the world should be progressing into a recessionary phase into 2028. We have just seen in this latest number that fewer jobs were created than expected. The unemployment rate increased, signaling that the labor market is beginning to reflect what the ECM forecast that we should expect to rapidly decelerate as this election is introducing a stark period of uncertainty. If Trump wins, the Democrats will do everything in their power to undermine the country for political purposes.
Honestly, it does not matter who wins. We are going into an economic decline with the risk of war. The Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates in September as these numbers file into their thinking process. However, Powell is deeply concerned about war, for interest rates ALWAYS rise during a war. This is why the Fed is cautious: They see the beating of the war drums threatening lower economic growth and rising inflation. In other words – STAGFLATION!
The unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent, up from 4.1 percent and higher than economists’ expectations of 4.1 percent. This represents the highest jobless rate since October 2021. The resistance stands just above the 6% level. Any serious resistance will be indicated with a rise above 6%. A closing for 2024 above 4.1% will signal a broader change in the trend toward recession.
