QUESTION: Are you ever wrong?
PSH
ANSWER: Personally, we are all wrong on various things through life. To be a trader, you only learn from your mistakes – not you victories. I try to separate what is my OPINION from the forecasts by the computer. We have clients around the world. We have been the largest adviser probably ever. But that is not because of my opinion – that is Socrates. I have often stated I try my best to defeat my own computer – I am the one you ends up wrong.
There is a new film coming out the sequel to the Forecaster. I was asked in this film, how does it “feel” to live through your own forecasts. My job is to relay what the computer is forecasting. This is not my opinion. I stood up at our 2011 World Economic Conference in 2011 and warned that the War Cycle would turn up in 2014. On December 3rd, 2013, I posted that the computer had targeted Ukraine where war would begin.
A number of people do not like the forecast that China would replace the United States on the economic battlefield. Sorry, but my job is to present the UNBIASED projections of the computer – not my personal opinion or desire. I have grandkids. I hate to see the future we are leaving behind for our children. This is the data from the Federal Reserve. The differential peak in GDP (US-China GDP) occurred in 2006 with a premium of $1.3 trillion. Even since then, China has been growing in leaps and bounds, and it may even surpass the US in the 2025/2026 period and reach total displacement by 2032.
The Ukraine war has triggered a completely new dynamic in the relationship between these great powers with respect to this rivalry. What is being overlooked here is that China, and not Russia, is capable of replacing the United States as the leading world economic and military power, as I warned several years ago, back in 2011 and 2018. Our model projected that China would eventually replace the United States as the leading economic power.
These are not forecasts that I personally desire nor do they originate in my mind. Even look at the data of Republican vs Democrat. This is the perspective of combined total seats of each party. The Democrats are the modern-day Federalists. They see to impose their views upon the total nation. The Federalists collapsed by 1824. The American people reject this political philosophy and this is the trend that will lead to separation as it ALWAYS does whenever a any government attempt to impose a dictatorial one-size-fits-all policy.
So please understand. I am no more infallible than other humans. my job is to relay the computer forecasts. I try hard to separate my opinion for Socrates. I do not want to see war. I know I cannot alter the cycle. The best I can do by screaming loudly is to perhaps reduce the amplitude. I am 75 years old. I get to leave this chaos and watch from above. I am trying to leave behind what I had bumped into in the middle of my life.
