QUESTION: Hello Martin, I was wondering if you could write a piece on the Norwegian real estate market? The market has gone complete mad the last couple of years with salaries declining, and housing prices booming. Over 40% of Oslo is now owned by people not leaving there. A lot of apartments are empty because people don’t care to rent them out, it is just for speculation. Will this continue or will the Sovereign debt crises drag the market down with it? Love your blog, and hope you can spare some time for little Norway!
HG
ANSWER: Actually, I will be speaking there in Norway in a few weeks. Most of this “speculation” is really parking money. They are not trying to actually make a profit, which is why they are not renting these properties out. This is about parking money outside of the Eurozone. This has been a bet against Brussels and the collapse of the Euro. When we look at the share market, we see an outside reversal to the upside in 2016 as our model warmed with a Panic Cycle. This too is money trying to get off the grid.
The is a picture of the Krone expressed in US dollars since 1927. Here also, the dollar is positioned to rally against the Krone and we should see a new high above that of 1985, but at the very least a rally to retest that level for the third time.
In the case against the Euro, the Yearly Bullish Reversal stood at 87125 and we closed 2016 at 86450 after reaching intraday for the year 89940. To have exceeded the Yearly Bullish for the Euro intraday yet failed to close above it warns that the rally in the Euro against the Krone is most likely coming to an end.
