There will be a war in the Middle East, and many are looking at this as the End Times from three different religions. The majority of Israelis of all faiths support a ground invasion of southern Lebanon. Hezbollah has been firing rockets for almost a year now, and they have turned the majority of Israelis against them. The Lebanese government has included Hezbollah ministers, and they have surrendered the safety of their own people to Hezbollah, thereby endorsing war with Israel. The deep resentment that festers in the Middle East I do not see as ever being resolved. When that becomes the reality, then war is inevitable.
Hezbollah has assumed that Iran would rush to join the party. But Putin has been warning them that the time is not right. Putin understands the game. He may be hoping Trump is elected to shut down World War III. However, the model concerning market activity suggests that things may not pan out as many have assumed.
While October is a key near-term target, the major target will be March/April next year.
