QUESTION: I am just curious. Do you have any data on earthquakes in Britain? I was in Winchester in January 2015 when we had a small earthquake. The size was not the issue, but the fact that it was an unusual location, not previously known for earthquakes. Can your computer forecast such events?
ANSWER: Without data, it is impossible to forecast anything. However, that particular area may not have been known for a quake in the past, but the surrounding area has a record that extends back to 1076 when a major quake struck on March 26th that historians said was felt “throughout all England.” There have been 75 quakes in Southern England and there is a fairly regular 13-year cycle with the next one due in 2028.
Like everything else, they build in intensity. There may be what people will call a “swarm” of earthquakes that cluster during a period. There were two in 1692, and then there were six all in 1750, then three in 1752, and two in 1753 with nine hitting in 1755. Those produced even a Tsunami with waves almost 10 feet high that went into the western English Channel about 4 hours following the serious quake in Lisbon.
It appears that we could see a swarm start around 2025, which interesting just follows the high in the Economic Confidence Model, which in fact, incorporates earthquake impacts economically.
