COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I am a loyal reader from Java. We have a big volcano here which has started to show life. The government has just put out a warning that it may erupt. I really find your work so interesting. You said 2018 would see a rise in volcanic activity along the Pacific rim of fire. Well, it appears after Hawaii, we could be next.
PM
REPLY: Yes. This particular volcano is like that of Hawaii insofar as it is much more active. Pyroclastic flow from a large explosions took place November 22nd, 1994. Another large eruption occurred in 2006, shortly before the Yogyakarta earthquake. There was also a large eruption in 2010 that changed the characteristic of Mount Merapi. Then on March 10th, 2014, Mount Merapi erupted early that Monday causing a thick-pyroclastic surge that shot 1,500 meters up in the air. We are now due for another event so this one is on schedule for 2017/2018.
Normally, small eruptions occur every two to three years, and larger ones every 10–15 years or so. However, the real major eruptions have occurred in 1006, 1786, 1822, 1872, and 1930. The eruption of 1006 is claimed to have covered all of central Java with ash. It was that volcanic eruption that is believed to have caused the collapse of the Hindu Kingdom of Mataram. This is akin to the destruction of the Minoan society when Thera erupted around 1650BC – today Santorini.
According to our model, the next BIG ONE is probably due in 2028, which may be at the 1006 eruption magnitude.
Here is the list of eruptions since we have consistent recorded history:
- 1548, 1554, 1560, 1584, 1586(?), 1587,
- 1658, 1663, 1672, 1678,
- 1745, 1752, 1755, 1768, 1791, 1797,
- 1807, 1810, 1812-22, 1822-23, 1828, 1832-36, 1837-38, 1840, 1846, 1848(?), 1849, 1854(?), 1861, 1862-64, 1865-71, 1872 (large vulcanian-subplinian eruption VEI:4) , 1872-73, 1878-79, 1883-84, 1885-87, 1888, 1889, 1891-92, 1893, 1894, 1897,
- 1902, 1902-04, 1905, 1906-07, 1908, 1909-13, 1915, 1918, 1920-21, 1922, 1923(?), 1924, 1930-31, 1932, 1933-35, 1939-40, 1942-45, 1948, 1953-58, 1961, 1967-1970, 1971(?), 1972-85, 1986-90, 1992-2002,
- April-July 2006, Oct 2010-2011, 2014, 2018 (May)
