Market Talk – April 15, 2021

Posted Apr 15, 2021 by Martin Armstrong |

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ASIA:

China’s economy likely grew at record pace of 19% in the first quarter, rebounding from a pandemic slump early last year as demand recovered at home and abroad and as policy support for ailing smaller firms continued, a Reuters poll showed. Reuters poll suggests that the world’s second-largest economy has continued to gain momentum, after a 6.5% expansion in the last quarter of 2020. China will release first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data on Friday, along with March factory output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment.

Japan’s economy is picking up steam but any recovery is likely to be modest due to lingering caution over the coronavirus pandemic, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda warned on Thursday. Kuroda said Japan’s economy was likely to improve because of a rebound in global demand and the boost from the government’s massive fiscal spending. Due to continued weakness in service consumption, BOJ governor said the pace of the recovery will be modest as caution over the pandemic remains.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

NIKKEI 225 increased 21.70 points or 0.07% to 29,642.69
Shanghai decreased 17.73 points or -0.52% to 3,398.99
Hang Seng decreased 107.69 points or -0.37% to 28,793.14
ASX 200 increased 35.50 points or 0.51% to 7,058.60
Kospi increased 11.95 points or 0.38% to 3,194.33
SENSEX increased 259.62 points or 0.53% to 48,803.68
Nifty50 increased 76.65 points or 0.53% to 14,581.45

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

AUDUSD increased 0.00219 or 0.28% to 0.77473
NZDUSD increased 0.00266 or 0.37% to 0.71683
USDJPY decreased 0.16 or -0.15% to 108.74
USDCNY decreased 0.00528 or -0.08% to 6.52695

Precious Metals:

Gold increased 33.06 USD/t oz. or 1.90% to 1,769.06
Silver increased 0.56 USD/t. oz or 2.21% to 25.971

Some economic news from last night:

Japan:

Foreign Bonds Buying increased from 375.1B to 1,714.4B

Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks decreased from 977.6B to 640.9B

South Korea:

Exports (YoY) (Mar) decreased from 16.6% to 16.5%

Imports (YoY) (Mar) remain the same at 18.8%

Trade Balance (Mar) decreased from 4.17B to 4.13B

Interest Rate Decision (Apr) remain the same at 0.50%

Australia:

MI Inflation Expectations decreased from 4.1% to 3.2%

Employment Change (Mar) decreased from 88.7K to 70.7K

Full Employment Change (Mar) decreased from 89.1K to -20.8K

Participation Rate (Mar) increased from 66.1% to 66.3%

Unemployment Rate (Mar) decreased from 5.8% to 5.6%

New Zealand:

FPI (MoM) (Mar) increased from -0.9% to 0.0%

Some economic news from today:

China:

FDI (Mar) increased from 31.50% to 39.90%

India:

WPI Food (YoY) (Mar) increased from 1.36% to 3.24%

WPI Fuel (YoY) (Mar) increased from 0.58% to 10.25%

WPI Inflation (YoY) (Mar) increased from 4.17% to 7.39%

WPI Manufacturing Inflation (YoY) (Mar) increased from 5.81% to 7.34%

Exports (USD) (Mar) increased from 34.00B to 34.45B

Imports (USD) (Mar) increased from 48.12B to 48.38B

Trade Balance (Mar) increased from -14.11B to -13.93B

Indonesia:

Export Growth (YoY) (Mar) increased from 8.50% to 30.47%

Import Growth (YoY) (Mar) increased from 14.86% to 25.73%

Trade Balance (Mar) decreased from 2.01B to 1.56B

EUROPE/EMEA:

The IMF has upgraded both its UK and global forecasts compared with what it projected in January. The International Monetary Fund is now forecasting a stronger economic recovery this year and next. The new UK forecast is for growth of 5.3% this year and 5.1% in 2022. Both figures are upgrades, though the latter is only marginally higher than the January forecast. The recovery follows last year’s pandemic driven contraction of 9.9% which was the deepest of any of the G7 major developed economies.

The major Europe stock markets had a green day:

CAC 40 increased 25.56 points or 0.41% to 6,234.14
FTSE 100 increased 43.92 points or 0.63% to 6,983.50
DAX 30 increased 46.18 points or 0.30% to 15,255.33

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

EURUSD decreased 0.00159 or -0.13% to 1.19669
GBPUSD increased 0.00049 or 0.04% to 1.37830
USDCHF decreased 0.00072 or -0.08% to 0.92230

Some economic news from Europe today:

Germany:

German CPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from 1.3% to 1.7%

German CPI (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 0.7% to 0.5%

German HICP (YoY) (Mar) increased from 1.6% to 2.0%

German HICP (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 0.6% to 0.5%

Germany Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Apr) decreased from 52.83 to 50.02

Norway:

Trade Balance (Mar) increased from 23.6B to 25.4B

France:

French CPI (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.0% to 0.6%

French CPI (YoY) increased from 0.6% to 1.1%

French HICP (YoY) (Mar) increased from 0.8% to 1.4%

French HICP (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.0% to 0.7%

France Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Apr) increased from 41.79 to 42.86

Italy:

Italian CPI (YoY) (Mar) increased from 0.6% to 0.8%

Italian CPI (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 1.1% to 0.3%

Italian CPI Ex Tobacco (MoM) (Mar) increased from 0.5% to 0.7%

Italian HICP (YoY) (Mar) decreased from 1.0% to 0.6%

Italian HICP (MoM) (Mar) increased from -0.2% to 1.8%

Italy Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Apr) decreased from 38.65 to 37.53

Spain：

Spanish Trade Balance increased from -1.77B to -1.08B

UK：

Thomson Reuters IPSOS PCSI (Apr) increased from 52.7 to 53.1

Euro Zone:

Reserve Assets Total (Mar) increased from 848.59B to 849.37

US/AMERICAS:

The Dow hit an all-time high this Thursday after advancing over 300 points and surpassing the 34,000 level. UnitedHealth led the Dow’s historical day of trading after advancing 14.8%, followed by Amgen (5.51%), Salesforce (4.98%), and Visa (1.94%).

April 15 is historically “tax day” in the US, but the Internal Revenue Service has postponed the filing deadline for the second consecutive year due to the pandemic. Americans must file their federal taxes by May 17. “Even with the new deadline, we urge taxpayers to consider filing as soon as possible, especially those who are owed refunds. Filing electronically with direct deposit is the quickest way to get refunds, and it can help some taxpayers more quickly receive any remaining stimulus payments they may be entitled to,” a spokesperson for the IRS stated. On average, it takes recipients 21 days to receive their refund. Although May 17 is the new date for federal taxes, individuals must check with their respective states to see when their state taxes are due if applicable.

The Labor Department released promising labor statistics this Thursday after finding that 576,000 filed for unemployment last week, a pandemic low. Last week’s jobless claims figure was revised upward to 769,000. Continuing claims, however, continue to rise as 3.731 million Americans received unemployment v 3.727 the week prior.

A third coronavirus vaccination may be required, according to Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla. Despite the company claiming earlier in April that the vaccine was at least 91% effective in warding off the coronavirus, and 95% effective after six months of the second injection, Pfizer now claims that recipients may need a third dosage within six to twelve months of receiving the second injection. “We are studying the durability of the antibody response,” Bourla claimed, citing variants of the virus as an excuse. Similarly, Johnson & Johnson recently stated that coronavirus vaccinations may become annual similar to the flu vaccine. Moderna voiced similar comments, stating that a “booster” vaccine will be available this upcoming fall.

US Market Closings:

Dow advanced 305.1 points or 0.9% to 34,035.99
S&P 500 advanced 45.76 points or 1.11% to 4,170.42
Nasdaq advanced 180.92 points or 1.31% to 14,038.76
Russell 2000 advanced 9.35 points or 0.42% to 2,257.07

Canada Market Closings:

TSX Composite advanced 150.26 points or 0.78% to 19,321.92
TSX 60 advanced 8.46 points or 0.74% to 1,152.02

Brazil Market Closing:

Bovespa advanced 405.99 points or 0.34% to 120,700.67

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

Crude Oil decreased 0.05 USD/BBL or -0.08% to 63.1000
Brent increased 0.06 USD/BBL or 0.09% to 66.6400
Natural gas increased 0.06 USD/MMBtu or 2.29% to 2.6770
Gasoline increased 0.0009 USD/GAL or 0.04% to 2.0364
Heating oil decreased 0.002 USD/GAL or -0.11% to 1.8880
Top commodity gainers: Orange Juice (2.52%), Sugar (3.03%), Copper (2.58%) and Bitumen (6.18%)
Top commodity losers: Live Cattle (-0.90%), Feeder Cattle (-0.62%), Corn (-0.76%), and Rubber (-0.62%)

The above data was collected around 12:21 EST on Thursday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.093%(+1bp), US 2’s 0.16%(-0.008%), US 10’s 1.5496%(-8.64bps); US 30’s 2.22%(-0.102%), Bunds -0.257% (+1bp), France 0.0049% (+1bp), Italy 0.726% (-5.6bp), Turkey 17.24% (+5bp), Greece 0.898% (-1.3bp), Portugal 0.386% (+6.7bp); Spain 0.38% (-3.72bp) and UK Gilts 0.728% (-7.8bp).