Market Talk – August 3, 2021

Posted Aug 3, 2021 by Martin Armstrong |

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ASIA:

Singapore recorded its strongest economic growth in 11 years in the second quarter of 2021, rebounding from its worst economic slump on record a year ago due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The Southeast Asian economy surged 14.3% in the second quarter compared with the same period a year ago, according to advance estimates by the Ministry of Trade and Industry.

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

NIKKEI 225 decreased 139.19 points or -0.50% to 27,641.83
Shanghai decreased 16.29 points or -0.47% to 3,447.99
Hang Seng decreased 40.98 or -0.16% to 26,194.82
ASX 200 decreased 16.90 points or -0.23% to 7,474.50
Kospi increased 14.10 points or 0.44% to 3,237.14
SENSEX increased 872.73 points or 1.65% to 53,823.36
Nifty50 increased 245.60 points or 1.55% to 16,130.75

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

AUDUSD increased 0.00278 or 0.38% to 0.73909
NZDUSD increased 0.00263 or 0.38% to 0.70096
USDJPY decreased 0.2 or -0.18% to 109.10
USDCNY increased 0.00203 or 0.03% to 6.46613

Precious Metals:

Gold decreased 3.49 USD/t oz. or -0.19% to 1,809.90
Silver increased 0.08 USD/t. oz or 0.33% to 25.514

Some economic news from last night:

Japan:

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jul) increased from 0.0% to 0.1%

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (Jul) decreased from 0.0% to -0.1%

CPI Tokyo Ex Food and Energy (MoM) (Jul) increased from -0.1% to 0.2%

Monetary Base (YoY) decreased from 19.1% to 15.4%

South Korea:

CPI (MoM) (Jul) increased from -0.1% to 0.2%

CPI (YoY) (Jul) increased from 2.4% to 2.6%

Australia:

Building Approvals (MoM) (Jun) increased from -7.6% to -6.7%

Home Loans (MoM) decreased from 1.9% to -2.5%

Invest Housing Finance (MoM) decreased from 13.3% to 0.7%

Private House Approvals (Jun) decreased from -10.3% to -11.8%

Some economic news from today:

Australia:

RBA Interest Rate Decision (Aug) remain the same at 0.10%

Commodity Prices (YoY) increased from 50.1% to 59.9%

New Zealand:

GlobalDairyTrade Price Index increased from -2.9% to -1.0%

EUROPE/EMEA:

The ending of the government’s furlough scheme will lengthen dole queues by 150,000 despite a boost to activity from the ending of lockdown that will make the UK the fastest-growing G7 nation this year, a leading thinktank has said. In its quarterly update on the UK, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (Niesr) said it had revised its 2021 growth forecast from 5.7% to 6.8%.

The major Europe stock markets had a mixed day:

CAC 40 increased 47.91 points or 0.72% to 6,723.81
FTSE 100 increased 24.00 points or 0.34% to 7,105.72
DAX 30 decreased 13.65 points or -0.09% to 15,555.08

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

EURUSD decreased 0.0007 or -0.06% to 1.18660
GBPUSD increased 0.00245 or 0.18% to 1.39123
USDCHF decreased 0.00105 or -0.12% to 0.90426

Some economic news from Europe today:

Swiss:

SECO Consumer Climate (Q3) increased from -18 to 10

Spain:

Spanish Unemployment Change decreased from -116.9K to -197.8K

Euro Zone:

PPI (MoM) (Jun) increased from 1.3% to 1.4%

PPI (YoY) (Jun) increased from 9.6% to 10.2%

US/AMERICAS:

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell made it clear that the GOP will not vote to raise the debt ceiling. “I can’t imagine there will be a single Republican voting to raise the debt ceiling after what we’ve been experiencing,” McConnell stated in response to ongoing government spending. The debt ceiling hit $19 million when it was suspended in August 2019 under the Trump administration. This suspension was terminated over the weekend as debt surpassed $28 trillion. The Treasury is taking “extraordinary measures” to defend against default such as suspending Treasury sales to fund debt, redeeming pension fund investments, and halting new Federal pension fund investments. Analysts are now wondering if this could lead to an increase in interest rates and increased taxes.

A study by the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) found that nearly 18% of all Americans have medical debt in collections. However, this percentage could be higher as the study did not include loans or credit card debt for medical bills. The sample size consisted of 4.1 billion persons, providing researchers with solid data. The study found a higher percentage of people living in debt in the Southern states than those living in the Northeast. The study, however, analyzed medical debt post-COVID-19. Additional research is needed to determine how America is handling healthcare

US Market Closings:

Dow advanced 279.03 points or 0.8% to 35,117.19
S&P 500 advanced 36.13 points or 0.82% to 4,423.29
Nasdaq advanced 80.23 points or 0.55% to 14,761.29
Russell 2000 advanced 8.09 points or 0.37% to 2,223.58

Canada Market Closings:

TSX Composite advanced 78.05 points or 0.38% to 20,365.85
TSX 60 advanced 6.19 points or 0.51% to 1,222.7

Brazil Market Closing:

Bovespa advanced 1,060.82 points or 0.87% to 123,576.56

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

Crude Oil decreased 0.6 USD/BBL or -0.84% to 70.6600
Brent decreased 0.36 USD/BBL or -0.49% to 72.5300
Natural gas increased 0.072 USD/MMBtu or 1.83% to 4.0070
Gasoline increased 0.0004 USD/GAL or 0.02% to 2.2751
Heating oil decreased 0.0091 USD/GAL or -0.43% to 2.1267

The above data was collected around 12:27 EST on Tuesday

Top commodity gainers: Natural Gas (1.83%), Cocoa (2.29%), Coffee (1.13%) and Lean Hogs (0.91%)
Top commodity losers: Steel (-2.25%), Methanol (-2.91%), Soybeans (-1.90%), and Lumber (-5.13%)

The above data was collected around 12:38 EST on Tuesday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.006%(-1bp), US 2’s 0.1722%(-0.00%), US 10’s 1.1755%(-0.34bps); US 30’s 1.8465%(-0.00%), Bunds -0.4820% (-0.1bp), France -0.1330% (-0.1bp), Italy 0.5731% (-0.63bp), Turkey 16.48% (-3bp), Greece 0.5590% (-2bp), Portugal 0.139% (-1bp); Spain 0.242% (+7.36bp) and UK Gilts 0.516% (-0.6bp).