Market Talk – July 29, 2021

Posted Jul 29, 2021 by Martin Armstrong |

Spread the love

ASIA:

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 9.5% for 2021-22, from its earlier estimate of 12.5%, citing the impact of the second wave on the economy and recovery process. In its latest update to the World Economic Outlook, the IMF said growth prospects in India have been downgraded, following the severe second Covid wave during March-May and expected slow recovery in confidence from that setback.

The major Asian stock markets had a green day today:

NIKKEI 225 increased 200.76 points or 0.73% to 27,782.42
Shanghai increased 50.13 points or 1.49% to 3,411.72
Hang Seng increased 841.44 or 3.30% to 26,315.32
ASX 200 increased 38.10 points or 0.52% to 7,417.40
Kospi increased 5.79 points or 0.18% to 3,242.65
SENSEX increased 209.36 points or 0.40% to 52,653.07
Nifty50 increased 69.05 points or 0.44% to 15,778.45

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

AUDUSD increased 0.00190 or 0.25% to 0.73951
NZDUSD increased 0.00500 or 0.71% to 0.70077
USDJPY decreased 0.30000 or -0.27% to 109.59
USDCNY decreased 0.02890 or -0.45% to 6.45968

Precious Metals:

Gold increased 25.23 USD/t oz. or 1.40% to 1,832.11
Silver increased 0.80 USD/t. oz or 3.22% to 25.730

Some economic news from last night:

Japan:

Foreign Bonds Buying increased from -1,218.0B to -1,087.4B

Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks decreased from -17.5B to -58.5B

Australia:

Export Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) increased from 11.2% to 13.2%

Import Price Index (QoQ) (Q2) increased from 0.2% to 1.9%

New Zealand:

ANZ Business Confidence (Jul) decreased from -0.6 to -3.8

NBNZ Own Activity (Jul) decreased from 31.6% to 26.3%

Some economic news from today:

India:

M3 Money Supply increased from 10.1% to 10.8%

EUROPE/EMEA:

Britain’s recovery from the pandemic slowed last month as shortages of goods supplied to factories, building sites and shops began to take their toll on growth and increasing numbers of workers across the country were forced to isolate after being pinged by the NHS app. According to the Guardian’s monthly snapshot of economic developments, there was a slowdown in economic growth in June, which could continue if the Delta variant continues to hamper business activity.

The major Europe stock markets had a green day:

CAC 40 increased 24.46 points or 0.37% to 6,633.77
FTSE 100 increased 61.79 points or 0.88% to 7,078.42
DAX 30 increased 70.11 points or 0.45% to 15,640.47

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

EURUSD increased 0.00370 or 0.31% to 1.18813
GBPUSD increased 0.00560 or 0.41% to 1.39610
USDCHF decreased 0.00340 or -0.37% to 0.90645

Some economic news from Europe today:

Spain:

Spanish Business Confidence increased from -1.1 to 1.4

Spanish CPI (YoY) (Jul) increased from 2.7% to 2.9%

Spanish CPI (MoM) (Jul) decreased from 0.5% to -0.7%

Spanish HICP (MoM) (Jul) decreased from 0.5% to -1.2%

Spanish HICP (YoY) (Jul) increased from 2.5% to 2.9%

Spanish Unemployment Rate (Q2) decreased from 15.98% to 15.26%

Germany:

German Unemployment Change (Jul) decreased from -38K to -91K

German Unemployment Rate (Jul) decreased from 5.9% to 5.7%

German Unemployment (Jul) decreased from 2.691M to 2.600M

German Unemployment n.s.a. (Jul) decreased from 2.614M to 2.600M

German CPI (MoM) (Jul) increased from 0.4% to 0.9%

German CPI (YoY) (Jul) increased from 2.3% to 3.8%

German HICP (MoM) (Jul) increased from 0.4% to 0.5%

German HICP (YoY) (Jul) increased from 2.1% to 3.1%

UK:

BoE Consumer Credit (Jun) decreased from 0.430B to 0.308B

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Jun) remain the same at 0.5%

Mortgage Approvals (Jun) decreased from 86.95K to 81.34K

Mortgage Lending (Jun) increased from 6.79B to 17.87B

Net Lending to Individuals increased from 7.2B to 18.2B

Italy:

Italian PPI (YoY) (Jun) increased from 8.1% to 9.1%

Italian PPI (MoM) (Jun) increased from 1.1% to 1.4%

Euro Zone:

Business and Consumer Survey (Jul) increased from 117.9 to 119.0

Business Climate (Jul) increased from 1.70 to 1.90

Consumer Confidence (Jul) decreased from -3.3 to -4.4

Consumer Inflation Expectation (Jul) increased from 27.1 to 30.0

Selling Price Expectations (Jul) decreased from 36.0 to 35.4

Services Sentiment (Jul) increased from 17.9 to 19.3

Industrial Sentiment (Jul) increased from 12.8 to 14.6

US/AMERICAS:

A new report released by the Commerce Department shows that America’s economy is recovering at a slower than anticipated pace. GDP during Q2 (April to June) rose at 6.5%, considerably under analysts’ estimates of 8.4%. The number is only slightly better than Q1 growth that was revised to 6.3%. Personal expenditures, accounting for 69% of all activity, rose 11.8% and accounts for most of the growth during Q2. Still, the figures paint a better picture than Q2 of 2020 when the US economy plummeted -33.4%.

Unemployment in the US declined during the week ending on July 24 after hitting a two-month high the week prior. Initial jobless claims fell by 24,000 to 400,000, a bit above expectations of 380,000. Continued claims, a four-week moving average, fell by 53,750 to 3.29 million, marking the lowest level since the pandemic began.

Robinhood (HOOD) made its debut on the Nasdaq this Thursday. The company was valued at $32 billion after its IPO sold for $38 per share. The company is said to have 22.5 million funded accounts as of Q2, an increase from the 18 million users in Q1, and a 151% YoY increase. The company estimates it will earn $574 million during Q2 of 2021 or over double ($244 million) of what the company earned during the same time period in 2020.

US Market Closings:

Dow advanced 153.4 points or 0.44% to 35,084.33
S&P 500 advanced 18.49 points or 0.42% to 4,419.13
Nasdaq advanced 15.68 points or 0.11% to 14,778.26
Russell 2000 advanced 15.07 points or 0.68% to 2,240.03

Canada Market Closings:

TSX Composite advanced 81.38 points or 0.4% to 20,311.78
TSX 60 advanced 4.7 points or 0.39% to 1,218.49

Brazil Market Closing:

Bovespa declined 610.26 points or -0.48% to 125,675.33

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a green day today:

Crude Oil increased 0.99 USD/BBL or 1.37% to 73.3800
Brent increased 0.96 USD/BBL or 1.28% to 75.7000
Natural gas increased 0.112 USD/MMBtu or 2.82% to 4.0790
Gasoline increased 0.0275 USD/GAL or 1.19% to 2.3357
Heating oil increased 0.0232 USD/GAL or 1.08% to 2.1792

The above data was collected around 12:45 EST on Thursday

Top commodity gainers: Natural Gas (2.82%), Silver (3.22%), Methanol (2.20%) and Palm Oil (2.86%)
Top commodity losers: Coffee (-1.97%), Oat (-1.18%), Orange Juice (-1.83%), and Sugar (-1.07%)

The above data was collected around 12:50 EST on Thursday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.019%(+1bp), US 2’s 0.2055%(+0.00%), US 10’s 1.2643%(+2.66bps); US 30’s 1.9124%(+0.03%), Bunds -0.4500% (-0.3bp), France -0.0960% (-1.2bp), Italy 0.6275% (+0.78bp), Turkey 16.96% (-5bp), Greece 0.6070% (-1bp), Portugal 0.198% (+0bp); Spain 0.281% (+7.17bp) and UK Gilts 0.575% (-0.1bp).