Market Talk – June 2, 2020

Posted Jun 2, 2020 by Martin Armstrong |

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ASIA:

The World Health Organization struggled to get needed information from China during critical early days of the coronavirus pandemic, according to recordings of internal meetings obtained by the Associated Press. The recordings obtained show officials complaining in meetings during the week of January 6 that Beijing was not sharing data needed to evaluate the risk of the virus to the rest of the world. It was not until January 20 that China confirmed the coronavirus was contagious and January 30 that the WHO declared a global emergency. The report comes amid growing international scrutiny of China’s handling of the outbreak and moves to establish an independent investigation into the origins of the virus, which has infected more than 6 million and killed more than 375,000 people around the world.

United States has declined the UAE’s offer to the US embassy hundreds of tests to screen its staff. “The offer was politely declined,” said a US official. The reason was the involvement of Chinese firms and technology, which raised a “red flag” and concerns about patient privacy, the official added.

US President Donald Trump on Sunday invited Prime Minister Narendra Modi to attend the next G7 summit to be held in the US. During a telephonic conversation, Trump conveyed his desire to expand the ambit of the G7 grouping beyond the existing membership to include other important countries, including India, according to an official statement. Prime Minister Modi commended President Trump for his creative and far-sighted approach, acknowledging the fact that such an expanded forum would be in keeping with the emerging realities of the post-covid world.

India’s unemployment rate in May rose to 23.48%, marginally lower from 23.52% in April, according to data released by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) on Monday, reflecting the impact of coronavirus pandemic. India’s infrastructure output, contributing nearly 40% in industrial production, contracted 38.1% in April from a year earlier, the worst performance in years, government data showed on Friday.

The major Asian stock markets had a green day today:

NIKKEI 225 increased 263.22 points or 1.19% to 22,325.61
Shanghai increased 5.97 points or 0.20% to 2,921.40
Hang Seng increased 263.42 points or 1.11% to 23,995.94
ASX 200 increased 15.90 points or 0.27% to 5,835.10
Kospi increased 22.11 points or 1.07% to 2,087.19
SENSEX increased 522.01 points or 1.57% to 33,825.53

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

AUDUSD increased 0.00889 or 1.31% to 0.68808
NZDUSD increased 0.00666 or 1.06% to 0.63527
USDJPY increased 1.18 or 1.09% to 108.74
USDCNY decreased 0.02177 or -0.31% to 7.10795

Precious Metals:

Gold decreased 15.15 USD/t oz. or -0.87% to 1,727.30
Silver decreased 0.36 USD/t. oz or -1.96% to 17.9810

Some economic news from last night:

Japan:

Monetary Base (YoY) increased from 2.3% to 3.9%

South Korea:

CPI (MoM) (May) increased from -0.6% to -0.2%

CPI (YoY) (May) decreased from 0.1% to -0.3%

GDP (YoY) (Q1) decreased from 2.3% to 1.4%

GDP (QoQ) (Q1) decreased from 1.3% to -1.3%

Australia

Business inventories (MoM) (Q1) decreased from 0.3% to -1.2%

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) (Q1) increased from -3.5% to 1.1%

Company Profits Pre-Tax (QoQ) (Q1) decreased from -0.6% to -16.2%

Current Account (Q1) increased from 1.0B to 8.4B

Net Exports Contribution (Q1) increased from 0.1% to 0.5%

New Zealand:

Building Consents (MoM) (Apr) increased from -21.7% to -6.5%

Terms of Trade – Exports Prices (Q1) decreased from 3.0% to -0.2%

Terms of Trade – Exports Volume (QoQ) (Q1) increased from 1.7% to 1.8%

Terms of Trade – Imports Prices (Q1) increased from 0.3% to 0.5%

Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (Q1) decreased from 2.6% to -0.7%

Indonesia:

Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (May) increased from 27.5 to 28.6

Some economic news from today:

Indonesia:

Inflation (MoM) (May) decreased from 0.08% to 0.07%

Inflation (YoY) (May) decreased from 2.67% to 2.19%

Core Inflation (YoY) (May) decreased from 2.85% to 2.65%

Australia:

RBA Interest Rate Decision (Jun) remain the same at 0.25%

New Zealand:

GlobalDairyTrade Price Index decreased from 1.0% to 0.1%

EUROPE/EMEA:

Issues remain with the UK and the EU regarding the UK fisheries. The UK wants a fairer share of the fishes caught in their waters; fishing currently adds 0.1% of the UK economy.

The US has launched an inquiry into the proposed EU “digital tax,” as they believe there is a bias towards penalizing US companies such as Google and Facebook. France has levied a 3% tax on digital goods last year but delayed collection until the end of 2020, US has threatened France with tariffs on nearly 2bn Euros worth of goods. Mark Zuckerberg has already stated that he is happy to pay more taxes in Europe.

The UK has joined Canada in disagreeing with US President Trump about inviting Russia to the next G7 meeting. The Canadian PM was quick to point out the reasons why Russia was banned in the first place — the annexation of Crimea. According to the UK Daily Mail, Russian President Putin has signed off the use of atomic weapons if they were first struck even by a conventional weapon. Meanwhile, the Russian Defense Minister has offered the US Defense minister to visit Moscow during the victory parade, which celebrates victory in WWII.

The major Europe stock markets had a green today:

CAC 40 increased 96.19 points or 2.02% to 4,858.97
FTSE 100 increased 53.72 points or 0.87% to 6,220.14
DAX 30 increased 434.43 points or 3.75% to 12,021.28

The major Europe currency markets had a green day today:

EURUSD increased 0.004 or 0.36% to 1.11691
GBPUSD increased 0.00516 or 0.41% to 1.25420
USDCHF increased 0.00131 or 0.14% to 0.96230

Some economic news from Europe today:

UK:

Nationwide HPI (YoY) (May) decreased from 3.7% to 1.8%

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (May) decreased from 0.9% to -1.7%

BoE Consumer Credit (Apr) decreased from -3.803B to -7.399B

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Apr) decreased from 3.2% to 1.5%

Mortgage Approvals (Apr) decreased from 56.14K to 15.85K

Mortgage Lending (Apr) decreased from 4.78B to 0.29B

Net Lending to Individuals decreased from 1.0B to -6.9B

Swiss:

Retail Sales (YoY) (Apr) decreased from -5.8% to -19.9%

procure.ch PMI (May) increased from 40.7 to 42.1

France:

French Government Budget Balance (Apr) decreased from -52.5B to -92.1B

Spain:

Spanish Unemployment Change decreased from 282.9K to 26.6K

Norway:

Manufacturing PMI (May) increased from 43.0 to 45.9

US/AMERICAS:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is projecting the US economy will contract by -52.8% this quarter. Last month, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the economy could “easily” contract by up to -30%. The Atlanta Fed released the following message on their website this morning to explain their grim forecast: “After this morning’s Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -56.5 percent and -61.5 percent, respectively, to -58.1 percent and -62.6 percent, respectively.”

Civil unrest and protests are continuing to dominate the US landscape. In Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, citizens heard loud unexplainable explosions throughout the night. Cities across the nation have issued curfews, and over 17,000 National Guard members are patrolling the streets of major cities. In St. Louis County, Missouri, four police officers were shot, and another officer was shot in Las Vegas, Nevada. Over 5,600 protestors and rioters have been detained thus far, according to the Associated Press.

Due to the escalating violence, the Secret Service has closed all streets surrounding the White House until further notice. “If a city or state refuses to take the actions that are necessary to defend the life and property of their residents, then I will deploy the United States military and quickly solve the problem for them,” President Trump announced on Monday. Under the Insurrection Act of 1807, the president has the authority to override governors’ orders and send in the National Guard if he deems it necessary.

Wells Fargo is halting the issuance of car loans over default concerns, according to reporters at CNBC. A spokeswoman for the company stated that the bank “an obligation to review our business practices in light of the economic uncertainty presented by COVID-19” and will only grant loans to businesses “with deep, long-standing relationships with Wells Fargo.”

US Market Closings:

Dow advanced 267.63 points or 1.05% to 25,742.65
S&P 500 advanced 25.09 points or 0.82% to 3,080.82
Nasdaq advanced 56.33 points or 0.59% to 9,608.38
Russell 2000 advanced 12.84 points or 0.91% to 1,418.21

Canada Market Closings:

TSX Composite advanced 158.15 points or 1.04% to 15,394.36
TSX 60 advanced 11.93 points or 1.3% to 931.7

Brazil Market Closing:

Bovespa advanced 2,426.28 points or 2.74% to 91,046.38

ENERGY:

Some positive sentiment in the oil markets today after rumors spreading of an agreement for further production cuts within the OPEC group as well as further lockdown easing globally. The OPEC basket rose greater than 15%, Brent and WTI also made gains of around 4%.

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

Crude Oil increased 1.06 USD/BBL or 2.99% to 36.5000
Brent increased 1.05 USD/BBL or 2.74% to 39.3700
Natural gas decreased 0.019 USD/MMBtu or -1.06% to 1.7680
Gasoline increased 0.0459 USD/GAL or 4.30% to 1.1137
Heating oil increased 0.0546 USD/GAL or 5.27% to 1.0906

The above data was collected around 14.08 EST on Tuesday.

Top commodity gainers: Heating Oil (5.27%), Ethanol (6.13%), Gasoline (4.30%), and Rice (5.24%)
Top commodity losers: Cocoa (-3.05%), Live Cattle (-2.93%), Steel (-3.03%), and Lean Hogs (-4.49%)

The above data was collected around 14.15 EST on Tuesday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.01%(+0bp), US 2’s 0.17% (+1bps), US 10’s 0.69%(+2bps); US 30’s 1.49%(+4bps), Bunds -0.40% (-1bp), France -0.04% (-1bp), Italy 1.52% (+5bp), Turkey 11.35% (-15bp), Greece 1.50% (-0bp), Portugal 0.54% (+2bp); Spain 0.58% (-0bp) and UK Gilts 0.23% (+0bp).