Market Talk – June 8, 2020

Posted Jun 8, 2020 by Martin Armstrong |

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ASIA:

Chinese apps are facing major challenges in India after an app named “Remove China Apps” made it easy for users to delete China-related services went viral. Though Google has pulled the app, anti-China sentiment will likely haunt Chinese apps in India as political tensions between the countries heighten. Decoupling from Chinese tech might not be easy in practice. Four out of the top five smartphone brands in India are Chinese, according to Counterpoint data, three of which belong to the enigmatic BBK Electronics group based in Shenzhen.

India and China have agreed to peacefully settle their border tensions in the Himalayas through diplomatic and military channels, India’s foreign ministry said in a statement on Sunday after bilateral talks between the two countries. Military commanders from both sides met on Saturday in Chushul, a village in the Leh district of Ladakh, near the disputed border. While India said the meeting took place in a “cordial and positive atmosphere,” China did not immediately respond.

Indian oil-to-telecoms conglomerate Reliance Industries said on Sunday that the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) will buy 1.16% of its digital unit Jio Platforms for USD $752 million. Reliance has now sold just over 21% of Jio Platforms to investors including Facebook Inc, securing nearly $13 billion in less than seven weeks and securing Reliance Jio’s enterprise value to 5.16 trillion rupees, Reliance said in a regulatory filing.

Japan’s economy shrank an annualized 2.2% in January-March, less than the initial estimate of a 3.4% contraction, revised data from the Cabinet Office showed Monday. On the whole, Monday’s revised gross domestic product (GDP) estimate confirmed Japan had slipped into recession – defined as two straight quarters of contraction for the first time in 4.5 years, even before lockdown steps to contain the virus was put in place in April.

The major Asian stock markets had a green day today:

NIKKEI 225 increased 314.37 points or 1.37% to 23,178.10
Shanghai increased 6.97 points or 0.24% to 2,937.77
Hang Seng increased 6.36 points or 0.03% to 24,776.77
ASX 200 increased 6.90 points or 0.12% to 5,998.70
Kospi increased 2.42 points or 0.11% to 2,184.29
SENSEX increased 83.34 points or 0.24% to 34,370.58

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

AUDUSD increased 0.00471 or 0.68% to 0.70167
NZDUSD increased 0.00524 or 0.81% to 0.65591
USDJPY decreased 1.25 or -1.14% to 108.34
USDCNY decreased 0.01214 or -0.17% to 7.05526

Precious Metals:

Gold increased 15.2 USD/t oz. or 0.90% to 1,700.25
Silver increased 0.39 USD/t. oz or 2.25%% to 17.7600

Some economic news from last night:

Japan:

Bank Lending (YoY) (May) increased from 3.0% to 4.8%

Current Account n.s.a. (Apr) decreased from 1.971T to 0.263T

GDP (QoQ) (Q1) increased from -0.9% to -0.6%

GDP (YoY) (Q1) increased from -3.4% to -2.2%

GDP Capital Expenditure (QoQ) (Q1) increased from -0.5% to 1.9%

GDP External Demand (QoQ) (Q1) decreased from 0.5% to -0.2%

GDP Private Consumption (QoQ) (Q1) increased from -2.8% to -0.8%

Indonesia:

FX Reserves (USD) (May) increased from 127.90B to 130.50B

Some economic news from today:

Japan:

Economy Watchers Current Index (May) increased from 7.9 to 15.5

Singapore:

Foreign Reserves USD (MoM) (May) decreased from 301.8B to 301.0B

EUROPE/EMEA:

German industrial output posted its steepest plunge on record in April as the coronavirus pandemic forced companies in Europe’s largest economy to scale back production. Industrial output dropped by 17.9% on the month, figures released by the Statistics Office showed. A Reuters poll had pointed to a drop of 16.0%.

British politicians and European military experts have warned that Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw 9,500 troops from Germany risks handing a strategic advantage to the Kremlin and undermining the postwar western military alliance. It would also affect the United States’ ability to operate in the Middle East and Africa, experts added.

France’s gross domestic product is likely to shrink 11% this year. Chairman of the French Council of Economic Analysis Philippe Martin said that the French economy has become granular and growth is now dependent on a very few big firms in a few sectors which includes Airbus and Louis Vuitton SE.

British Airways, Easyjet and Ryanair have criticized the UK government’s decision to impose a mandatory 14-day quarantine on international travelers, describing it as “unfair” and “disproportionate.” UK nationals and international passengers traveling into the country from Monday — be it via airplane, ferry, or train — will have to complete a form prior to their arrival, detailing an address where they will self-isolate for the next 14 days. Failure to do so, or to provide accurate information, could lead to a fine of up to £1,000 ($1,270).

The major Europe stock markets had a negative day today:

CAC 40 decreased 22.27 points or -0.43% to 5,175.52
FTSE 100 decreased 11.71 points, or -0.18% to 6,472.59
DAX 30 decreased 28.09 points or -0.22% to 12,819.59

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

EURUSD increased 0.00077 or 0.07% to 1.12990
GBPUSD increased 0.00557 or 0.44% to 1.27215
USDCHF decreased 0.0056 or 0.58% to 0.9567

Some economic news from Europe today:

Germany:

German Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) decreased from 0.3% to -17.9%

France:

French Reserve Assets Total (May) decreased from 219,697.0M to 217,404.0M

Euro Zone:

Sentix Investor Confidence (Jun) increased from -41.8 to -24.8

US/AMERICAS:

Despite months of strict social distancing measures, the World Health Organization (WHO) recently retracted their statement that asymptomatic carriers were responsible for the spread of the disease. “From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual,” announced Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO’s emerging diseases and zoonosis unit. The announcement reiterated the US’ stance to cease funding the organization.

The National Guard is beginning to retreat from US cities despite as protests continue. In Los Angeles, California, the majority of the troops left the city over the weekend. However, a small number of units will remain in place until June 10 “to provide emergency support if needed,” according to Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti. The military also began to disband from Washington over the weekend. “We came right up to the edge of bringing active duty troops here, and we didn’t,” Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy explained.

New York City, once the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in the US, has begun to reopen this Monday after being in lockdown for nearly 80 days. According to official estimates, 400,000 people will return to work today. Phase one in New York means that non-essential retailers may open for curbside pickup, and manufacturing and construction may resume. Separately, New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announced plans to cut funding to the New York Police Department to reallocate those funds into social programs.

Senior White House advisor Kevin Hassett told reporters that another round of relief aid would be contingent on the June jobs report. As states begin to reopen, unemployment is expected to decline and consumer spending is expected to rise. However, the June jobs report will show how many positions have been permanently erased from the economy as numerous businesses filed for bankruptcy or placed employees on prolonged furloughs during the shutdown. “One of the things that we’ve been saying and that the president’s insisted on is that we watch the economy recover, we see if it surprises us on the upside and if the programs that we have out there work or need to be fixed,” Hassett told CNBC this Monday.

US Market Closings:

Dow advanced 461.46 points or 1.7% to 27,572.44
S&P 500 advanced 38.46 points or 1.2% to 3,232.39
Nasdaq advanced 110.66 points or 1.13% to 9,924.75
Russell 2000 advanced 29.74 points or 1.97% to 1,536.89

Canada Market Closings:

TSX Composite advanced 120.84 points or 0.76% to 15,974.91
TSX 60 advanced 4.87 points or 0.51% to 961.68

Brazil Market Closing:

Bovespa advanced 3,007.61 points or 3.18% to 97,644.67

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a negative day today:

Crude Oil decreased 1.3 USD/BBL or -3.29% to 38.2500
Brent decreased 1.42 USD/BBL or -3.36% to 40.8800
Natural gas decreased 0.001 USD/MMBtu or -0.06% to 1.7980
Gasoline decreased 0.003USD/GAL or -0.25% to 1.2007
Heating oil decreased 0.0169 USD/GAL or -1.48% to 1.1223
Top commodity gainers: Silver (2.25%),Lean Hogs (2.37%),Palladium (3.46%), and Rubber (2.32%)
Top commodity losers: Crude Oil(-3.29%), Brent(-3.36%), Rice (-7.29%), and Oat (-3.61%)

The above data was collected around 15:38 EST on Monday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.05%(-1bp), US 2’s 0.22% (+1bps), US 10’s 0.88%(-3bps);US 30’s 1.65%(-3bps), Bunds -0.32% (-5bp), France 0.04% (+2bp), Italy 1.42% (-1bp), Turkey 11.75% (+15bp), Greece 1.40% (+5bp), Portugal 0.54% (-1bp), Spain 0.58% (+1bp) and UK Gilts 0.34% (-2bp).