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Market Talk – October 12, 2022

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ASIA:

Japan’s inflation-adjusted gross domestic product shrank 0.3% in August from July as exports to China and Europe fell, as local demand remains sluggish, the Japan Center for Economic Research said in a report released on Tuesday. It is the first month-on-month contraction since May for the world’s third-largest economy, owing largely to external factors, JCER said. Goods and services exports in real terms dropped 0.6% in August on the month. Its seasonally adjusted exports of goods to the European Union fell 10.3%, while those to China dropped by 7.5%. The fall in goods exported to those markets were largely general machinery and electrical equipment. Japan’s goods and services imports in real terms jumped 1.3% on the month.

China’s central bank extended its bilateral currency swaps with European central bank, worth 350 billion yuan or 45 billion euros, according to a statement published on the Chinese central bank’s website on Monday. The swaps extension will help deepen bilateral cooperation and safeguard financial market stabilization, the Chinese central bank said.

 

The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today:

  • NIKKEI 225 decreased 4.42 points or -0.02% to 26,396.83
  • Shanghai increased 45.71 points or 1.53% to 3,025.51
  • Hang Seng decreased 131.33 points or -0.78% to 16,701.03
  • Kospi increased 10.40 points or 0.47% to 2,202.47
  • ASX 200 increased 2.50 points or 0.04% to 6,647.50
  • SENSEX increased 478.59 points or 0.84% to 57,625.91
  • Nifty50 increased 140.05 points or 0.82% to 17,123.60

 

 

The major Asian currency markets had a green day today:

  • AUDUSD increased 0.00012 or 0.02% to 0.62671
  • NZDUSD increased 0.00173 or 0.31% to 0.55993
  • USDJPY increased 1.076 or 0.74% to 146.923
  • USDCNY increased 0.01523 or 0.21% to 7.18363

 

 

Precious Metals:

  • Gold increased 3.17 USD/t oz. or 0.19% to 1,668.48
  • Silver decreased 0.239 USD/t. oz or -1.25% to 18.951

 

Some economic news from last night:

Japan:

Reuters Tankan Index (Oct) decreased from 10 to 5

Core Machinery Orders (YoY) (Aug) decreased from 12.8% to 9.7%

Core Machinery Orders (MoM) (Aug) decreased from 5.3% to -5.8%

South Korea:

Interest Rate Decision (Oct) increased from 2.50% to 3.00%

New Zealand:

External Migration & Visitors (Aug) increased from 344.20% to 4,748.80%

Permanent/Long-Term Migration (Aug) decreased from 475 to 47

Visitor Arrivals (MoM) decreased from 41.8% to -3.3%

 

Some economic news from today:

Japan:

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) decreased from 10.7% to 4.3%

India:

CPI (YoY) (Sep) increased from 7.00% to 7.41%

Cumulative Industrial Production (Aug) decreased from 10.00% to 7.70%

Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) decreased from 2.4% to -0.8%

Manufacturing Output (MoM) (Aug) decreased from 3.2% to -0.7%

 

 

EUROPE/EMEA:

 

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Wednesday that the German economy will head into recession in 2023 as a result of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s economic war against the West. Habeck told reporters in Berlin that Europe’s biggest economy will contract by 0.4% next year instead of growing by 2.5% as forecast this spring. Growth forecasts for 2022 were also revised downwards to 1.4% from the previous forecast of 2.2%.

 

 

The major Europe stock markets had a negative day:

 

  • CAC 40 decreased 14.73 points or -0.25% to 5,818.47
  • FTSE 100 decreased 59.08 points or -0.86% to 6,826.15
  • DAX 30 decreased 47.99 points or -0.39% to 12,172.26

 

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

  • EURUSD decreased 0.00109 or -0.11% to 0.96928
  • GBPUSD increased 0.01186 or 1.08% to 1.10897
  • USDCHF increased 0.00121 or 0.12% to 0.99801

 

Some economic news from Europe today:

UK:

NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker remain the same at -0.3%

GDP (MoM) decreased from 0.1% to -0.3%

GDP (YoY) decreased from 3.1% to 2.0%

Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) decreased from -1.1% to -1.8%

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Aug) decreased from -1.1% to -1.6%

Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change decreased from 0.0% to -0.3%

Trade Balance (Aug) decreased from -17.59B to -19.26B

Trade Balance Non-EU (Aug) decreased from -9.10B to -11.08B

Euro Zone:

Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) increased from -2.3% to 1.5%

Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) increased from -2.5% to 2.5%

 

US/AMERICAS:

Wholesale prices in the US exceeded expectations this September, according to new data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The producer price index (PPI) rose 0.4% last month, doubling analysts’ expectations. Over the past 12 months, PPI has soared 8.5%. Removing energy and food, PPI rose 0.4% in September and 5.6% from a year ago. Food costs alone rose 1.2% on a monthly basis, while energy rose 0.7%. The Federal Reserve is largely expected to raise rates once more at the next meeting to combat inflation.

US Market Closings:

  • Dow declined 28.34 points or -0.1% to 29,210.85
  • S&P 500 declined 11.81 points or -0.33% to 3,577.03
  • Nasdaq declined 9.09 points or -0.09% to 10,417.1
  • Russell 2000 declined 5.15 points or -0.3% to 1,687.76

 

Canada Market Closings:

  • TSX Composite declined 10.4 points or -0.06% to 18,206.28
  • TSX 60 declined 1.69 points or -0.15% to 1,099.13

 

Brazil Market Closing:

  • Bovespa declined 1,113.52 points or -0.96% to 114,827.12

 

 

ENERGY:

 

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

 

  • Crude Oil decreased 2.676 USD/BBL or -2.99% to 86.674
  • Brent decreased 2.457 USD/BBL or -2.61% to 91.833
  • Natural gas increased 0.0275 USD/MMBtu or 0.42% to 6.6235
  • Gasoline decreased 0.04 USD/GAL or -1.52% to 2.5873
  • Heating oil increased 0.0529 USD/GAL or 1.35% to 3.9837

 

The above data was collected around 11:56 EST on Wednesday

 

  • Top commodity gainers: Heating Oil (1.35%), Coal (3.54%), HRC Steel (2.04%) and Soybeans (2.13%)
  • Top commodity losers: Steel (-2.31%), Coffee (-3.37%), Brent (-2.61%) and Crude Oil (-2.99%)

 

The above data was collected around 12:02 EST on Wednesday.

 

BONDS:

 

Japan 0.25%(+0bp), US 2’s 4.30% (-0.019%), US 10’s 3.9125% (-2.65bps); US 30’s 3.89% (-0.012%), Bunds 2.321% (+1.3bp), France 2.919% (+3bp), Italy 4.739% (+5.4bp), Turkey 12.45% (+10p), Greece 4.994% (+3.6bp), Portugal 3.422% (+3.1bp); Spain 3.499% (+3bp) and UK Gilts 4.432% (-0.7bp).