Market Talk – September 9, 2020

Posted Sep 9, 2020 by Martin Armstrong |

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ASIA:

Some 92% of respondents to a survey released Wednesday by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai said they were committed to remaining in the country even as the US-China relationship continues to fracture. According to the findings, more than a quarter of the US firms surveyed said that they expected US-China trade tensions to last “indefinitely,” compared to about 17% a year ago. Meanwhile, about a fifth of respondents said they expected the tensions to last for three to five years. That compares with 13% in 2019.

The maker of the hit video game PlayerUnknown’s Battleground (PUBG) has cut ties with Tencent in India after India banned apps with links to China. Developer PUBG Corporation said it would take on publishing responsibilities in India in a bid to have its game reinstated. Tencent confirmed its partnerships with PUBG Corporation in other markets would not be affected by the move. India was PUBG’s biggest market before the game was blacklisted, with more than 175 million downloads to date.

The major Asian stock markets had a negative day today:

NIKKEI 225 decreased 241.59 points or -1.04% to 23,032.54
Shanghai decreased 61.79 points or -1.86% to 3,254.63
Hang Seng decreased 155.41 points or -0.63% to 24,468.93
ASX 200 decreased 129.20 points or -2.15% to 5,878.60
Kospi decreased 26.10 points or -1.09% to 2,375.81
SENSEX decreased 171.43 points or -0.45% to 38,193.92
Nifty50 decreased 39.35 points or -0.35% to 11,278.00

The major Asian currency markets had a mixed day today:

AUDUSD increased 0.00598 or 0.83% to 0.72711
NZDUSD increased 0.00626 or 0.95% to 0.66763
USDJPY increased 0.21 or 0.20% to 106.20
USDCNY decreased 0.02118 or -0.31% to 6.83607

Precious Metals:

Gold increased 14.25 USD/t oz. or 0.74% to 1,945.70
Silver increased 0.244 USD/t. oz or 0.92% to 26.870

Some economic news from last night:

China:

CPI (MoM) (Aug) decreased from 0.6% to 0.4%

CPI (YoY) (Aug) decreased from 2.7% to 2.4%

PPI (YoY) (Aug) increased from -2.4% to -2.0%

Japan:

M2 Money Stock (YoY) increased from 7.9% to 8.6%

M3 Money Supply (Aug) increased from 1,894.4T to 1,907.1T

South Korea:

Unemployment Rate (Aug) decreased from 4.2% to 3.2%

Australia:

Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Sep) increased from -9.5% to 18.0%

Home Loans (MoM) increased from 5.5% to 10.7%

Invest Housing Finance (MoM) decreased from 8.1% to 3.5%

New Zealand:

Manufacturing Sales Volume (QoQ) (Q2) decreased from -1.7% to -12.2%

ANZ Business Confidence increased from -41.8 to -26.0

Indonesia:

Retail Sales (YoY) (Jul) increased from -17.1% to -12.3%

Some economic news from today:

Japan:

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) increased from -31.1% to -23.3%

EUROPE/EMEA:

Building an indigenous green hydrogen industry in the UK could deliver a cumulative gross value added (GVA) of between GBP 160 billion (USD 207.4 bn/EUR 176bn) and GBP 320 billion by 2050, says a new report. In the report’s low scenario, the UK’s capacity to produce green hydrogen from offshore wind reaches 24 GW by 2050 and the GVA over the period surpasses GBP 160 billion. In the high scenario, the capacity is 58 GW and the cumulative GVA is about GBP 320 billion.

The major Europe stock markets had a green day:

CAC 40 increased 69.46 points or 1.40% to 5,042.98
FTSE 100 increased 82.54 points or 1.39% to 6,012.84
DAX 30 increased 268.88 points or 2.07% to 13,237.21

The major Europe currency markets had a mixed day today:

EURUSD increased 0.00408 or 0.35% to 1.18091
GBPUSD increased 0.00352 or 0.27% to 1.30021
USDCHF decreased 0.0045 or -0.49% to 0.91338

Some economic news from Europe today:

Swiss:

Unemployment Rate n.s.a. (Aug) increased from 3.2% to 3.3%

Unemployment Rate s.a. (Aug) remain the same at 3.4%

US/AMERICAS:

Senate Republicans introduced a “skinny” coronavirus relief bill to the floor that will not include a second round of stimulus checks. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell noted earlier in the week that he preferred a “targeted” relief plan, which would cost between $500 billion to $700 billion. The package would continue additional unemployment benefits at $300 a week compared to the previously offered $600. Senate Democrat Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said the bill “doesn’t come close to addressing the problems and is headed nowhere.”

Job openings in the US spiked 10% (6.6. million) in July. According to a recent report from the Labor Department, the number of new hires decreased despite the number of newly available positions. The number of new hires fell to 5.8 million in July compared to around 7 million in June. Prior to the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, job openings were around 7 million and new hires reached 5.9 million.

AstraZeneca announced that it is temporarily ending its coronavirus vaccine trial after a patient came down with an unexplainable illness. “As part of the ongoing randomized, controlled global trials of the Oxford coronavirus vaccine, our standard review process was triggered and we voluntarily paused vaccination to allow review of safety data by an independent committee,” the company said in an official statement. The pharmaceutical company’s stock declined -1.95% this Wednesday.

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD Bank) may face a class-action lawsuit after failing to reimburse travel insurance claims. Plaintiff Kevin Lyons filed a complaint with the Ontario Superior Court after TD Bank said they would not reimburse him for travel plans that were halted due to the coronavirus. The bank maintains that they issued credit vouchers to travelers affected by the coronavirus. However, the new lawsuit states that the credit is an insufficient form of a refund.

US Market Closings:

Dow advanced 439.58 points or 1.6% to 27,940.47
S&P 500 advanced 67.12 points or 2.01% to 3,398.96
Nasdaq advanced 293.87 points or 2.71% to 11,141.56
Russell 2000 advanced 21.89 points or 1.45% to 1,526.48

Canada Market Closings:

TSX Composite advanced 284.08 points or 1.76% to 16,383.6
TSX 60 advanced 17.67 points or 1.83% to 983.24

Brazil Market Closing:

Bovespa advanced 1,241.62 points or 1.24% to 101,292.05

ENERGY:

The oil markets had a mixed day today:

Crude Oil increased 0.83 USD/BBL or 2.26% to 37.5900
Brent increased 0.53 USD/BBL or 1.33% to 40.3100
Natural gas decreased 0.057 USD/MMBtu or -2.37% to 2.3430
Gasoline increased 0.0122 USD/GAL or 1.11% to 1.1088
Heating oil increased 0.0112 USD/GAL or 1.04% to 1.0844

The above data was collected around 11:05 EST on Wednesday.

Top commodity gainers: Crude Oil (2.26%), Platinum (1.86%), Lumber (2.86%), and Coal (1.64%)
Top commodity losers: Orange Juice (-5.77%), Bitumen (-4.69%), Natural Gas (-2.37%), and Oat (-5.70%)

The above data was collected around 11:18 EST on Wednesday.

BONDS:

Japan 0.01%(-1bp), US 2’s 0.14% (-0bps), US 10’s 0.68%(-0bps); US 30’s 1.42%(-0bps), Bunds -0.47% (+3bp), France -0.18% (+1bp), Italy 1.07% (-1bp), Turkey 13.48% (+0bp), Greece 1.13% (-2bp), Portugal 0.35% (+0bp); Spain 0.33% (+1bp) and UK Gilts 0.20% (+2bp).