The Fed meeting this week has triggered a turn in the dollar as US rates dipped on the 10-year to their lowest since Trump took office. As a result, the greenback is the weakest among the majors for the week thus far as we should expect for a decline near-term. Although there has been an impressive rally in EUR/USD, that currency has significant overhead resistance. The euro has not gained nearly as much as its major counterparts such as the Swiss and the C$.
While everyone will focus on interest rates, at the end of the summer we will see a refocus back on the structural problems in the Euro. Trump will be jumping for joy with a lower dollar for that will help in trade issues. The lower interest rates will also help to reduce interest expenditures on the national debt. So once again, we are looking at the calm before the storm.
