At the end of 2019, we obtained Yearly Bearish Reversals on crop production in many areas. This is lining up with the ECM and it is warning that weather is turning against us for food production. The market tends to focus only on year/year numbers and ignore the trend on a broader perspective. The USDA […]

COMMENT: A suggestion. I really think the annual Lobby Day in Virginia, scheduled for January 20, should be considered when discussing the turning point in the ECM. The potential for confrontational violence between the state of Virginia and the federal government on one side, and the Second Amendment supporters on the other, is high. This […]

  The Economic Confidence Model has marked specific highs and lows in markets to the very day at times depending upon the shifts in capital flows. Why has the business cycle been masked in complexity that has prevented many from comprehending how it functions? I believe this is the result of the average person always […]

COMMENT: Dear Marty, Thank you so much for warning all for what is coming ! Sorry to keep reflecting on details, you wrote :“The real issue is the threat of a VEI 6- 7 which could seriously alter the climate for a year or two resulting in a Volcanic Winter. The other risk is 5 […]

COMMENT: I don’t believe your ECM and when the Republicans impeached Clinton this is just payback which is well deserved. They should shut your site down. Oppressed Democrat REPLY: Don’t worry, I have no desire to live forever. I understand that Socialists hate cycles and want to oppress everyone for their own benefits. I am […]

As we have reached the turning point for the conclusion of this 8.6-year wave, there is so much going on even politically it is mind-blowing. Everything from Impeachment of Trump which may bring a surprise, European army, constitutional change in Russia, riots in Iran, a new record high in the US share market, the bounce […]

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I am a new reader. I was recommended to look to your site when I was in a climate debate with a friend. They never tell us that the sun has a cycle which beats like your heart as you put it. I also never knew the north pole moved drastically. I […]

COMMENT: Dear Martin, You might find this interesting. Today the Taal volcano in Luzon, Philippines, erupted in a violent way sending an ash plume as high as 16 km (55.000 ft). The last time this volcano erupted was in 1977. This is 43 years ago which equals to 5*8.6. The low solar activity seems to […]

QUESTION: I found your analysis in Iran v USA very interesting. Sometimes I do have to read between the lines. For example, you wrote: “We should pay attention to November 4, 2022. That will be the 43rd anniversary of the seizing of the American embassy by Iran.”  That implies you did not see anything prior […]

The year 2022 is showing up as a political change in trend. That often implies a change in leadership. Since that is not a year where a presidential election would take place, given the extreme hostility which has emerged politically and the end of bipartisanship in Washington, there is the potential for the merger of […]