The ECB (European Central Bank) has announced it is now considering moving interest rates to negative. So those who wanted to know did Larry Summers’ speech have any impact – the answer was yes. This has been floated around behind the curtain. I have been asked about this increasingly over the last 6 months all […]

A speech delivered by Larry Summers at the IMF Research Conference on Nov. 8, 2013, has caused a real stir and is being hailed as brilliant, succinct, and a ground-breaking presentation that explained what many say is the most pressing economic matter of our time. The speech is being widely praised of course by Paul […]

QUESTION: Mr Armstrong, Thank you for answering my question. Would l therefore be correct in thinking: 1) It is a casual (indirect) relationship between interest rates and inflation rather than direct (ie, the strengthening economy will result in short-term cost-push inflation) 2) The exploding government debt (on interest rate hikes) will weaken the dollar over […]

QUESTION: Mr Armstrong, Thanks for your awesome website and the vast amount of information that you are putting out there. Could you please clarify the relationship between interest rates and inflation. Why would rising interest rates cause an uptick in inflation? I understand that a strengthening economy puts upward pressure on both yields and inflation, […]

The one thing to emerge from the debt ceiling crisis has been to highlight the short-term debt focus. Every Thursday the US government has had to sell $100 billion of new debt rolling over short-term with 3 month bills. This may have helped to bring down long-term rates and it reduced the interest expenditures, but […]

The pension crisis is beginning to emerge as a real growing problem. The central banks have been keeping interest rates low for the primary reason of reducing the national debts. In Germany, they are beginning to notice that not merely are government pensions growing faster than private as public servants help themselves to our income […]

Here is our 1996 forecast for long-term interest rates that we put out with the dollar low in 1995. We warned that interest rates would bottom on the Pi Cycle 31.4 Years from the 1981 high. That would be followed by a very sharp rally in rates into 2015.75. This was all part of the […]

  Too many people are simply confused by the talking heads on TV who honestly cannot articulate anything that is real in the analytic world. So many people commented that demand should collapse for real estate with the first uptick in rates and that we were dead wrong. The average person is not that stupid. […]

There is a tremendous degree of hidden order behind everything. Here is a chart we have been publishing for decades. We created a continuous chart of the US government 30 year bonds back to inception. Look at the uptrend line. We reached our target objective here and it was a retest of that technical line. […]

QUESTION:  Rates in US going high. Reasons? (right reasons?) Margin calls when markets melt down Fed stops QE It can´t be so simple, can it? Could you please explain more about this? Thanks for all. G.G. ANSWER: A central Bank is never really in charge of the interest rate. It get the credit for being […]