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Will Russia’s Economy Exceed Germany’s Anytime Soon?
February 7, 2019
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Standard Chartered has forecast that Russia will overtake Germany as the world’s fifth largest economy, possibly as early as next year in 2020. Would you care to comment if that is possible? GP ANSWER: It is clear that Russia’s economy is not impacted by the stupid US sanctions for going into Ukraine. Historically, […]
Market Talk – February 6, 2019
February 6, 2019
Asia: The following country’s markets are closed for the national holiday: China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Singapore. The Chinese Yuan increased 16 bps against the dollar despite the market being closed. The Japanese stock market increased +0.14%. The YoY for the Nikkei is still negative, slipping -3.56%. The same cannot be said for […]
LIBOR v SOFR
February 6, 2019
QUESTION:Dear Martin: Do you have any concerns for the equity markets from the upcoming conversion from Libor to SOFR (the secured overnight financing rate). A recent article from Business Insider highlighted the following: “Libor, linked to about $350 trillion worth of financial products, will be replaced by an alternate pricing benchmark for everything from mortgages […]
The Business Cycle & Why They Pretend it Cannot be Forecast
February 5, 2019
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have studied you Economic Confidence Model and found it to be extremely accurate in forecasting the business cycle. When I showed it to my professor here at ——— he responded that itis impossible to forecast the business cycle. He would not even engage in a conversation about it. Why are they […]
Market Talk – February 4, 2019
February 4, 2019
Asia: Firstly, we would like to wish our Chinese and Korean readers a happy new year and have a wonderful holiday. Asian stocks posted positive returns as optimism grew regarding a possible US and China trade deal. Donald Trump and Xi Jinping are due to meet on the 27th and 28th of February in […]
Market Talk – February 1, 2019
February 2, 2019
Asia: Equities globally performed pretty very today. China was no exception, with trump declaring “substantial progress” was being made with the US delegation meeting with China. Trumps comments were “This is either going to be a very big deal, or it’s going to be a deal that we’ll just postpone for a little while.” […]
The 2019 Canadian Outlook Report
February 1, 2019
The 2019 Canadian Outlook Report provides the outlook for the Canadian dollar both against the Greenback as well as against the Euro. Aside from the politics with the federal elections coming in October, we have also provided the outlook for the Canadian share market as well as interest rates followed by the real estate market.
As we head into 2020, we are facing not just a recession into next year, but also a major turning point in 2020 that will result in a rather significant new trend. So hold on tight. We are approaching one of the most important turning points perhaps in your lifetime.
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Markets Cheer a Recession?
January 31, 2019
The rally in gold and the stock market together is demonstrating that eventually, we will see the alignment as it transforms from Public to Private assets. The most deranged reaction to the Federal Reserve saying they will be “patient” on any further rate moves, is just beyond all reason. But markets are not always rational […]
Market Talk – January 30, 2019
January 30, 2019
Asia: Both the Nikkei and the Shanghai were amongst the losers in Asia, dropping 108.10(-0.52%) and 17.28(-0.67%) bps respectfully. Kospi on the contrary had a positive day climbing more than 1%. The prolonged US-China trade war coupled with slowing Chinese growth is putting uncertainty in the region. The Japanese Industrial production PMI expect at -0.5% (previous was […]
Climate Change & Commodities
January 29, 2019
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I love the fact that you look at everything from a pure cyclical perspective. Al Gore who started this whole mess was not a climatologist. He was a politician. You are 100% correct that people will believe what they want to believe. There is no talking to one of this idiots. When […]
