The history of interest rates is provided on this site. Interest rates in a developed economy reflect the “option” value on the expected decline in purchasing power of money. If I expect it to decline by 5%, then I expect a profit, and say want 8%. You in turn will pay the 8% only if […]

What completes a phase transition? Simple — capital inflow to the United States. For example, when oil was in the $10 range in 1998, we forecast that oil would rise to $100 by 2007.15. In court, the Department of Energy wanted us to develop a model, but Alan Cohen of Goldman Sachs blocked that project. […]

All commodities, including gold, trade substantially differently than stocks or real estate. Pictured here is wheat back to 1200. Note that you see what appears to be a brain wave. Commodities trade differently because they are subject to nature. Manufactured items can be produced on a more regular basis. However, commodities are subject to weather, […]

The old idea that inflation is created by an increase in money supply has distorted the minds of many people. Inflation is caused by numerous factors for it is not a one-dimensional aspect. For example, say a bird flu has rendered half of the egg production to be worthless, which would send egg prices soaring. […]

The most fundamental truth about trading is that your opponent is YOURSELF. The majority must be wrong because they are the fuel that propels the market. The market enters a flash-type crash when the vast majority is LONG, and they try to sell, but there is no bid. Far too many people demonize trading such […]

Click here to read my latest interview with Piero Messina for SouthFront. Preview: “I named my computer model after Socrates because the oracle of Delphi had said that he was the smartest man in Greece. He tried to prove the oracle wrong and the process proved it to be correct. He was put on trial […]

It is crucial to understand correlations as EVERYTHING fluctuates! There is absolutely nothing that remains constant. You MUST understand that correlations are NOT one for one, and often show changes in advance of turns. It is a lot to keep track of but this is why I try to post a global view to help you see the world […]

ASIA:   “Market Talk” will be temporarily postponed until June as our staff redirects efforts toward the London Seminar. Tickets to the seminar, both virtual and in-person, are still available for purchase.   The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today: NIKKEI 225 decreased 132.88 points or -0.34% to 38,787.38 Shanghai increased 31.63 […]

ASIA:   The major Asian stock markets had a green day today: NIKKEI 225 increased 534.53 points or 1.39% to 38,920.26 Shanghai increased 2.50 points or 0.08% to 3,122.40 Hang Seng increased 302.82 points or 1.59% to 19,376.53 ASX 200 increased 127.60 points or 1.65% to 7,881.30 Kospi increased 22.66 points or 0.83% to 2,753.00 […]

ASIA:   The major Asian stock markets had a mixed day today: NIKKEI 225 increased 29.67 points or 0.08% to 38,385.73 Shanghai decreased 25.87 points or -0.82% to 3,119.90 Hang Seng closed ASX 200 increased 26.90 points or 0.35% to 7,753.70 Kospi closed SENSEX decreased 117.58 points or -0.16% to 72,987.03 Nifty50 decreased 17.30 points […]