QUESTION: You said interest rates may start to rise in 2013. Is that still on track? ANSWER: The major high in interest rates took place 1981.35. The typical extended decline is normally 31.4 years or 34 years. This targets the fall after the German elections. The longest would be 2015.

We are in one of the most complex conundrums in financial history. On the one hand we have vast amounts of cash that creates tremendous liquidity with interest rates at virtually zero, G7 finance ministers at least alarmed about the high level of liquidity yet it is becoming obvious even to them that monetary policy can not […]

1. You have been pretty consistent in your position that gold is yet another commodity with business cycles affecting it as much as corn or copper and therefore a gold standard would never work. But wouldn’t you agree that at the least a gold standard would serve as a speed bump on government’s constant expansion […]

One reader asks: I found fascinating your understanding of the correlation between interest rates and real estate.  By your definition the slashing of interest rates by the Fed to all time low mortgage rates did not put a floor to real estate prices but exacerbated the low in real estate.  Essentially you are saying that if the […]

2013 will be the Pi (π) target year for the low in interest rates from the 1981 high. The key in this giant financial crisis is still Europe. Marxism has failed. Russia & China faced that in 1989. The West has to learn this lessen as well. As a whole, Europe will post the lowest economic […]

Copyright Martin Armstrong All Rights Reserved October 13th, 2012 The Risk of Low Interest Rates Analysis is dominated by simply opinion and therein lies the problem. Economics has become nothing like a science. In physics, one observes and then determines the “LAWS” as to how the universe functions. In the field of Economics and Finance, […]

Currently Under Construction

3000 B.C. – 500 A.D. The Ancient Economy 500 A.D. – 1690 A.D. The Fall of Rome to End Dark Ages 1690 – 1774 A.D. The Dawn of Capitalism 1775 – Present The World Revolution * Based in part on the work of by Sidney Homer and Richard Sylla – History of Interest Rates

View the new Research page and read A Brief History of World Interest Rates. More research coming soon.

QUESTION: Marty, thanks so much for explaining the difference between lowering rates trying to deflect capital flows as in Denmark and Switzerland. I understand the difference now and why you say the ECB is the first to apply this in a Keynesian stimulus context. Is this a complete modern development post-depression? Cheers; YJK ANSWER: The […]