Portugal is starting to bail-in banks. The fascinating aspect that nobody seems to see is that this is a total failure of socialism. The U.S. Federal Reserve was formed in 1913, with the shareholders being the banks, to provide the cash needed to prevent bank failures. To stimulate the economy when the banks could not […]

Why has China become so important? Largely because global investors are in this transition mode and do not understand how or why the foundation of everything is changing beneath them. The market turmoil in China spread around the world on Thursday as global investors took their lead from China as a contagion unfolded with no real understanding. […]

COMMENT:  Good morning, Martin. Yesterday I bought an old booklet printed for 10 NoK at the Armed Forces Museum: “Laws, resolutions and prescripts due to circumstances of war”, by the Justice Department, printed in Kristiania (now Oslo) in 1917. I thought I there would find the outline of a recipe for what may come here […]

QUESTION: Marty, at the WEC you said the Dow would go down in the first quarter. How far do you see this going this time? ANSWER: We elected a monthly Bearish Reversal at year-end and closed lower than 2014. The main support starts down at the 15850 level followed by 15370. We can see even […]

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I was given your Solution DVD for Christmas by my son. I just began reading your blog for days. This has been an eye opening experience and it has even opened a dialog with my son. So you can teach old dogs new tricks. So my conclusion is that we can step […]

QUESTION: Marty, I believe that the traditional way of looking at even value no longer applies. Take the claimed doctrine in finance named the dividend discount model. They assume that the price of a common stock is the present value of its future cash flows discounted by the rate of interest. What happens when interest rates […]

The seriousness that is emerging in the hedge fund community is their tendency to become VULTURE FUNDS who look to lend money to sovereigns at excessively high rates of return that become no different than the carpetbaggers who sought to exploit the South following the Civil War. As an investor, you should stay away from hedge funds who think they […]

QUESTION: Marty, you know which bank I am at. You also know the Fed has been going around warning banks that their models are wrong and they will not see a flight to quality being the 30 year bonds. Yet Yellen seems to also say she does not believe in inevitable cycles. They are saying […]

QUESTION: Did you contradict yourself when you said a higher dollar will weaken US economy? Then you said interest rates will make stocks rise? ANSWER: No. What you have to grasp here is that the stock market can rise for two entirely different reasons and it depends upon the mix of trends. 1) The normal market […]

QUESTION: Hi Martin, I have been a follower of your blog since The Forcaster was broadcasted on national tv in Sweden. My question is about periodtime, or frequency of the business cycle and the other cycles. As society today seems to move much faster than a hundred years ago one would guess that the business cycle […]