The IMF and many economists (domestic and foreign) are now warning that a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, no matter when, will spark a major economic crisis in the emerging markets. They see this crisis being ripe for countries with high budget deficits, such as Turkey, as well as commodity-based economies. This includes […]

COMMENT: Dear Martin –  I have been a follower for some time now and had great pleasure in hearing you speak at the Princeton WEC.  Thank you for so readily sharing your knowledge with those that are willing to listen and learn. I recall you mentioning that governments will often have a desired policy “floated” […]

QUESTION: In your Nov. 15 blog you said about the Fed “ I do not think in its present form it should be owned by banks collecting 6%. I would advocate a public float as is the case in Switzerland. Can you explain what that means, and how that works. Thank you I sincerely hope you continue […]

QUESTION: You say that long-term manipulations are impossible while short-term manipulations have been the focus of the bankers. Do you mean to say that not even governments can manipulate the economy perpetually? Are central banks buying US equities to manipulate the US stock market higher? It would seem that the Fed would then be accused […]

Some people are now claiming that investors remain trapped in “The Twilight Zone”, which they define as the transition period between the end of QE and the first rate hike by the Fed. They remain fixated on this idea of interest rates up and stocks down. It really is pathetic to see people who call themselves […]

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The ECB does not reveal in detail its QE and most people have no idea that its asset-backed securities (ABS) and covered-bond purchases are actually carried out by private asset managers: ING Investment Management, Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management International, State Street Global Advisors, and Amundi. These asset managers intervene into markets on orders by the […]

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read this time its different by Rogoff. While it is interesting about sovereign defaults, he clearly does not go back into ancient times or more than a few hundred years. If anyone would know when the first such default took place it must be you. Any idea? ANSWER: Yes. The first such […]

Far too many people have underestimated the changes in the global economy. This year’s conference will focus on the significant instability risks that are associated with the economic slowdown in China, and the crisis in the emerging markets. This will impact the German exports, and the refugee crisis in Europe will only help to push the economic […]

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, it seems many people are starting to pretend they have artificial intelligence systems and neural nets. It seems that they are using these terms very loosely. Can you explain the real difference? Everyone I have spoken to says you are the father of AI in finance. Thank you for all you contribute […]