A number of people have asked if I ever looked at Hyman Minsky’s concepts in forecasting the economy. Minsky’s Financial Instability Hypothesis failed not because of the fact that he attempted to interject cycles and even listened to Schumpeter, the problem was that he was an economist and not a trader. His own attempts to devise a […]

People who think that Trump alone embarked on protectionism, really need to look around the World. Australians have been blocked by Amazon from buying anything from their US site because the government has imposed effectively a tariff of 10% on anything an Australian may purchase under $1,000 from the internet overseas. The Australian government is […]

The strategic war of words continues between the US and China and with it, the ebb and flow of the Chinese stock markets. Given that the US has weathered all of these headlines, it is doubtful it will start now. There is talk that the domestic indices are receiving a helping hand, but then with […]

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I know you say you do not advise the IMF. But whatever you write, they follow and repeat. So they are following your blog at least and they implement whatever you say. This is very curious. They are now saying that Germany’s export model economy is threatening the world economy. You were […]

The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a global business cycle. The entire world economy NEVER peaks and bottoms together. This latest turning point of July 12th, 2018 (2018.529) has apparently provided a MAJOR warning that we just could be moving into a major Cycle Inversion from the perspective of the United States. What does that […]

No new headlines and a strong US market resulted in a positive day for Asia. Finally, we saw some bounce back in the Shanghai index after it has been weak for so long. Today’s 2.75% recovery is a start, but considering the YTD decline sits around -16%, there is still a fair way to go! […]

The optimistic rally seen earlier in the week over possible US / China Trade agreement, was soon to face the cold light of day and todays price action reflects just that. Both Shanghai and Hang Seng demonstrated this today as both fell over 2% and closed on the days lows. The Nikkei has also seen […]

European banks have been lending in the United States quiet aggressively because (1) the economy is doing good so there is a demand for loans contrary to Europe, and (2) the behind the curtain view that the euro will decline and the dollar will rise. During the first half of 2017, European banks have lent […]

It was almost as though the longer they waited, the more complacent the markets were about the BOJ and the curve! The fears after last weeks rumours, were that the BOJ would start to step away from its rigorous JGB operation. However, after today announcement and comments, JGB 10yrs fell 4bp back to 0.06%. That […]

QUESTION: Hi Martin, I am a long time reader of your blog and a big fan of the tools that you have developed for investors. Thanks for all that you do and I wanted to reach out and ask about your opinion of the thesis that ——-  outlines for the IMF implementing SDRs as world money […]