QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read this time its different by Rogoff. While it is interesting about sovereign defaults, he clearly does not go back into ancient times or more than a few hundred years. If anyone would know when the first such default took place it must be you. Any idea? ANSWER: Yes. The first such […]

Far too many people have underestimated the changes in the global economy. This year’s conference will focus on the significant instability risks that are associated with the economic slowdown in China, and the crisis in the emerging markets. This will impact the German exports, and the refugee crisis in Europe will only help to push the economic […]

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, it seems many people are starting to pretend they have artificial intelligence systems and neural nets. It seems that they are using these terms very loosely. Can you explain the real difference? Everyone I have spoken to says you are the father of AI in finance. Thank you for all you contribute […]

Some people have wrongly expected a crash in the long bonds. What has actually happened is that China and others have sold into the high, liquidating their long bonds, and moving short-term. This is why rates are negative on the short-end. The CRASH comes in the opposite direction this time. Why? Because the central banks […]

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I heard you on Infowars. I understand how the gold standard would not solve anything for the problem is politicians and not what we call money. Some think that you can create a floating gold standard so gold would be money but not fixed. I really have a hard time seeing where […]

The market reaction to the U.S. data on Friday has confused many with both stocks and bonds bouncing into the close. Overnight, the Asian equity markets have continued the positive response. This has also carried into the European opening but interestingly only for equities. In the reaction in the bond markets, we have seen U.S. 10s remain just […]

The jobs number came in sharply lower than expected. U.S. employers have not been hiring over the last two months and wages fell in September. With the 2015.75 turning point, we should begin to see declining economic numbers; a closing on the Dow below 15970 today will warn of a retest of the August low. […]

In Barcelona, many people asked if I thought the pro-independence parties in Spain’s Catalonia region would actually win. I told them it was inevitable as this is the global trend in motion. The vote for Catalonia is in and the separatists have won an absolute majority in regional elections. The separatist alliance and a smaller party […]

The blood moon is a total lunar eclipse that results in the moon appearing in a copper red color. This event will be special since it is the fourth in a series of rare events within an 18-month period that began last April. The September 28 “Supermoon” eclipse will last some 72 minutes, reaching totality at […]

The 1985 World Economic Conference Back in 1985, we warned that the Sovereign Debt Crisis would emerge on 2015.75. How was 2015.75 forecast so far back? This is pi; 31.4 years into this Private Wave which began on 1985.65. At the 1998 World Economic Conference, we put out this slide listing the sequence of events. […]