QUESTION: have you ever tested Punxsutawney Phil‘s predictions of spring with your forecasts? how often was he correct? TT REPLY: The Punxsutawney Groundhog Club has kept track of  Punxsutawney Phil’s predictions. Actually, his forecasts have been far better than the climate change/global warming crowd who said snow would cease to exist and we should […]

ASIA: Global markets slid down on the back of coronavirus concerns in China. Major financial markets around the world have been rocked as an exodus of foreign workers from China intensified fears over the impact of the coronavirus for the world’s second largest economy. Global shares slid as fears intensified over the potential impact of […]

On December 3, 1972, Brown University wrote to the president concerning the climate changing back to a potential Ice Age. Because our models have been divided by time, it is much easier to distinguish short-term changes in trend from the long-term. What is fascinating is that even a decade of rising temperatures leads people to […]

ASIA: Top US and Chinese negotiators held an agreement this morning regarding the trade war. The Chinese commerce ministry said they have reached a “common understanding.” They also jointly stressed that they are working on resolving core issues of common concern, and that communication will be open for the remaining issues related to “phase one.” […]

QUESTION: I realize my opinion is of little consequence; but I find something interesting and needed to share. After doing a lot of backtesting using many criteria over many stocks my unqualified opinion is that no fixed criteria can be used analyze stock charts over time and many stocks. I worked with a well respected […]

QUESTION: What makes currencies rise & fall in value? CC ANSWER: Many people want to reduce this to a logical explanation. It reminds me of when I testified before Congress at the House Ways & Means Committee. They had to put me on a panel with academics. I told them to make me last. The […]

COMMENT: Well, Ray Dalio was short the market, missed the rally, and lost almost 5% for the first half of the year. Obviously, they don’t use Socrates – lol. LB REPLY: I do not advise Bridgewater and I have no idea if they even subscribe to Socrates. But what you have to realize is that […]

ASIA: Russia reported that China has announced plans to open six new free zones as an attempt to open up its economy (with external pressure to do so). China also announced that they will expand the existing Shanghai free zone. Spokesperson Gao Feng said, “China has been opening up more sectors of the economy as […]

  In 2009, Al Gore forecast that there would be no ice by 2013. The BBC reported those crazy forecasts back in 2007. I have explained many times that the forecasting methods used is to assume whatever trend is in motion will remain in motion forever. In other words, if the Dow Jones were to […]

QUESTION: I see all of these people calling for a major crash of 50%+. With interest rates so low and the dividends on the Dow twice that of interest rates, does anyone look at yield anymore? PH ANSWER: I fully agree. The yield on the Dow Jones is 2.34%, which is about comparable the 10-year […]