We are in one of the most complex conundrums in financial history. On the one hand we have vast amounts of cash that creates tremendous liquidity with interest rates at virtually zero, G7 finance ministers at least alarmed about the high level of liquidity yet it is becoming obvious even to them that monetary policy can not […]

Germany and its austerity policies that have been forced upon the rest of Europe with no sense of how to create economic growth for the future, is now experiencing a interesting side-effect of the Euro. They did create freedom of movement and the right to social benefits throughout Europe as a EU citizens. They did […]

Gold trades technically not fundamentally. Why there are so many gold promoters selling fundamental gibberish is amazing. To me this is suspicious. They are so desperate to get people to buy and have no regard for their financial survival. Here is SPOT gold back to 1975 on a quarterly basis. All the same fundamental nonsense […]

EMU Introduction May 5th, 1997   European Monetary Union 1997 is a critical year for EMU, as the economic performance in 1997 will determine which countries join EMU in January 1999. The financial markets still have not quite come to terms with all the details of EMU nor does it realize that this union is […]

Country Analysis Ireland The probability of Ireland joining EMU from the beginning date remains quite high. Nevertheless, the close relationship of Ireland and Britain does pose somewhat of a problem for the future of Ireland and its committment to EMU. Certainly, Ireland continues to perform very well on its economic fiscal front. However, Ireland’s debt/GDP […]

Country Analysis Denmark The probability of Denmark joining EMU by the first start date remains quite low. The primary reason for this outlook is due to the fact that Denmark has an opt-out clause. Based upon its economic performance, Denmark would qualify for EMU by 1999. Economic growth in Denmark should reach 3% in 1997. […]

Country Analysis Belgium The probability for Belgium joining EMU at the start date remains quite high, despite its failure on debt criteria. Belgium’s economic growth has been less than expected due to a large extent to the general poor eonomic conditions within Europe as a whole – particularly involving France and Germany. With GDP growth […]

Country Analysis Austria   The probability of Austria making the first cut for EMU remains quite high. Austria’s rising debt burden remains a major concern for the future of this nation. Nevertheless, the close political and monetary ties between Austria and Germany will result in a high probability that Austria will be in the first […]

The whole idea of “socialism” is based upon the same theory that led to the overthrow of the Shah and the birth of Islamic Radicalism in 1979. What is the connection? Both hold that the private sector cannot be trusted and that the state should manage the economy. In Iran, it became the religious clerics […]

Back in 1997, we warned that our computer model was forecasting that by 2016, we would see a tremendous rise in third party activity. This was our forecast back then and most said what is your computer drinking over there? The blue line in this chart showed the historical 3rd party movement and how it […]