As we have reached the turning point for the conclusion of this 8.6-year wave, there is so much going on even politically it is mind-blowing. Everything from Impeachment of Trump which may bring a surprise, European army, constitutional change in Russia, riots in Iran, a new record high in the US share market, the bounce […]

QUESTION: Marty, you said that central banks can only control short-term rates not long-term. Do you see a scenario where they could control the long-term rates? Thank you for your insight DH ANSWER: If you ASSUME that there is a free market, then the answer is no possible way. Under a hybrid market, a central […]

QUESTION: I found your analysis in Iran v USA very interesting. Sometimes I do have to read between the lines. For example, you wrote: “We should pay attention to November 4, 2022. That will be the 43rd anniversary of the seizing of the American embassy by Iran.”  That implies you did not see anything prior […]

  COMMENT: Thanks so much for your explanation of the Repo Crisis which is now self-evident that the Fed has reversed course and did not cut rates. You are always on the cutting edge and your contacts are revealed in your analysis. PV REPLY: The central bank has been in control of short-term rates, not […]

The Repo Crisis is only Part II of this Mother of All Financial Crises. Where Quantitative Easing was buying in long-term debt to try to lower long-term interest rates and stimulate the economy, the Repo Crisis is entirely different for its objective is to prevent short-term rates from rising. The Fed did not lower rates […]

QUESTION: Marty; A friend of mine is an analyst at one of the major banks in New York. He said they are not allowed to forecast some things as you said. He used to work for a European bank and did say it was much worse.  He said everyone who is anyone reads you. He […]

QUESTION: The Fed buying $60 billion in T-Bills each month is obviously not long-term QE. They are expanding their balance sheet, but this is clearly not the QE as before. As a professional institution we can see the difference. Would you elaborate on the difference? FH ANSWER: The Fed is buying $60 billion of Treasury bills […]

The Federal Reserve, as expected, cut rates a quarter-point. The Fed also warned that further moves to ease interest rate policy may be coming to an end. The rate cut of 25 basis points to a range of 1.5% to 1.75% has been the third cut this year, which Fed Chairman Powell characterized as a […]

QUESTION: Was not this move you have been talking about to happen right after the EP elections? What has changed? “While everyone will focus on interest rates, at the end of the summer we will see a refocus back on the structural problems in the Euro.” SM ANSWER: Nothing. What is happening is that we […]

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