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Market Talk- October 12, 2018

A much welcomed relief rally seen in Asia today, which was a refreshing surprise given how most opened. China did publish the best trade export numbers toi the US in sometime, but is being negated by the storey US firms maybe front-loading imports in fear of increasing trade tensions. Steady progress was made from the […]

Understanding How Free Trade is Circumvented

QUESTION: Hi Martin, I just read your blog on the new NAFTA. One important point that you missed is the control the new agreement gives to the US over Canada in it’s trade deals it makes with other countries, (China being the target) The US gets to review all deals before they are signed and give […]

Market Talk- October 9, 2018

Shanghai opened marginally weaker, but was either side of close for the balance of the day. Fortunately, the index did close with a positive a marginally positive print whilst the currency managed to behave itself. There is talk late in the European session that China was playing in the FX market – selling US Dollars, […]

Market Talk- October 8, 2018

  Asia was more concerned about the weakness of the core Chinese markets after last weeks holiday. The Peoples Bank of China cut (by 100bp) the reserve ratio for lenders on Sunday and that move spooked an already wobbly market. The Hang Seng had already responded to higher US rates last week and so closed […]

Bonds & The Record High Short Position Can Majority Be Wrong?

  QUESTION: Hi Marty, Can you help us better understand the dynamics of the sovereign debt crisis as it relates to US Treasuries? I know we are in a global debt crisis, which will also impact US Treasuries but it seems like short treasuries is the current consensus (I believe they are currently at the biggest […]

Market Talk- October 5, 2018

The draconian fear of rising rates being bad for stocks, was flushed through into Asia this morning with all core markets trading heavy. The Nikkei lost nearly 1%, having opened lower it could not find a confident bounce throughout the day. The Yen is treading water around the 114 figure level, but looks to be […]

Market Talk- October 4, 2018

The FED was blamed for stopping yesterdays US rally in equities and has had a similar effect in Asia. Jerome Powell commented that they are a long way from neutral and that hit the long end of the Treasury curve. The ADP was probably enough to indicate economic strength, but then Jerome Powell light the […]

Market Talk- October 3. 2018

The Nikkei retreated from its recent highs in cash terms, but is late this evening retaking those losses. The concerns surround the auto and petrochemical industries, but the poor auto sales number certainly did not help key stocks today as Honda dropped 4.3% and Mitsubishi Motors down 3.4%, while Showa Denko fell 5.2%. However, many […]

Market Talk- October 2, 2018

  Shanghai remains closed but the Hang Seng reopened after its public holidays to a negative mood. The trend remained the same for the day, as bid after bid was hit to close down 2.38% on the day. The news that US Defence Secretary James Mattis proposed visit to China had been cancelled, escalated the rumours […]

Why Capital Flows Are the Only Real Guide to Market Trends

QUESTION: Hello Martin I wish all the best for you. The work you make every day to rise up our understanding about the world is amazing and make me feel a huge respect. it is very inspiring. I’m a small customer of your private blog. I don’t know if you answer that kind of request. I want […]