Forecasting markets has always been a nightmare to say the least. Just when you think that you have everything figured out, the trend suddenly emerges in the opposite direction. The science of forecasting itself has encountered a rather shabby reputation largely due to the number of people in the field who think they have everything […]

Solutions For The Debt Crisis © Martin A. Armstrong The general perception of interest rates and debt within the financial community is about as far from reality and common sense as one might be in this day and age. With government deficits still a major problem and no solutions from the political arena in sight, one […]

A Continued Era of Deflation or A Premature Expectation of Inflation? © Martin A. Armstrong Economists and analysts argue that double-digit inflation is something of the past – a freak of nature that took place during the Carter years of the mid-70s. On April 19th, 1993, Alan Greenspan (Chairman of the Federal Reserve) made a statement […]

The Cycle of Political Change Republicans will Sweep Capital Hill in 1994 © Martin A. Armstrong Far too many analysts constantly compare every downturn in the stock market and economy to the Great Depression. The majority of stock market analysts have been looking for a major top and a big crash ever since they missed calling […]

A Crisis in Democracy The Price of Intervention © Martin A. Armstrong Arthur William Edgar O’Shaughnessy once wrote in his classic Ode back in the 19th century… “We are the music-makers, And we are the dreamers of dreams, Wandering by lone sea breakers, And sitting by desolate streams; World-losers and world-forsakers, On whom the pale […]

The Rise & Fall of the Consumer Price Index © Martin A. Armstrong It is often said that beauty lies in the eye of the beholder. Oddly enough, the same can be said of inflation. You will undoubtedly read headlines which state that inflation is under control. You will also read of analysts who continue to […]

Trading the Reverse Pyramid © Martin A. Armstrong If you had to reduce the movements of all market and economic activity down into a single solitary influential explanation, the one single word which I would chose to describe such a force would obviously be CONFIDENCE! At first, you might be moved to take exception to this […]

The Reversal System: A 20-Year Case Study Theory-Design-Implementation © Martin A. Armstrong Perhaps the most important discovery made here at Princeton was the simple fact that market price and economic movement is anything but random. This is a very powerful statement because you will be hard pressed to find many who would agree with us on […]

Judgmental Forecasting and Fundamental Analysis © Martin A. Armstrong Each year I personally meet with more than 1,000 corporations and I lecture before another 5,000 to 6,000 at various business gatherings. With the exception of our long standing clients, better than 90% regard technical models for forecasting as not quite on par with good old fundamental […]

The Delphi Technique © Martin A. Armstrong There are many forms of analysis and even more forms of mathematical forecasting equations — all determined to predict the future course of mankind. As discussed in the previous edition, judgmental forecasting still remains the dominant form of analysis employed not only by the financial community, but also throughout […]