QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You have indeed sparked my curiosity. With both the velocity of money and the trading volume declining since 1998, this seems to be a very dangerous position and your work is really eye opening. I read your Transactional Banking and it seems that this has changed everything for the worse. Your Big […]

QUESTION: Everyone in the gold industry says you are wrong. The stock market will crash by 90% and gold will soar. Will you address that scenario just once? ANSWER: I have answered this frivolous question countless times. This is the most bearish rally in stocks ever. That is why the stock market has kept rising. […]

The biggest problem with analysis is that we are all human. Anyone who expects someone to forecast the economy or markets based upon their personal view is just out of their mind. Nobody can be consistent for we are all human and make mistakes. The only possible way forward is to achieve a quantified model that correlates everything to […]

Protests broke out in Greece over the weekend in Athens and the northern city of Thessaloniki. The government is yielding to Brussels and has not figured out that this policy is destroying its own people and their future. The government passed reforms that they hope will persuade lenders to release more financial aid. They are cutting […]

Political instability is rising in Saudi Arabia. The Saudi king has fired his longtime Secretary of Energy and the head of the central bank has been replaced. The royal family is now fighting to sustain power. The fall in the price of oil is having a political impact within the power structure of Saudi Arabia. Eventually, […]

China’s trade balance (released overnight) was not great (Est. $40bn but the actual release was $45.56bn and exports contracted 1.8% in April) and had a negative effect on equities from the open. The Nikkei and Hang Seng were heavily influenced by oil’s rally given the very sad news of the Alberta fire incident. Japan and […]

QUESTION: Marty; Are you saying that Bill Gross is wrong and they will not try “helicopter money” again or that “helicopter money” will not stimulate the economy? ANSWER: Whether or not the Fed tries to apply “helicopter money” is highly debatable. Bill Gross DID NOT make a forecast that any QE (Quantitative Easing) would be successful or […]

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Nobody seems to be able to answer this question. How fast would the Euro disintegrate if the EU appears to be on the verge of collapsing assuming Britain were to leave? There is a consensus that other states would then begin to also prepare referendums to leave. This question become paramount and you […]

A couple of rumors and some nerves ahead of the all important US Non-Farms Payrolls. In mainland China there were rumors that local regulators may want to delay mainland listings of mainland US listed Chinese companies. We will follow-up on this rumor when we hear more information. Shanghai index closed down 2.8% and the Shenzhen B closed down 3.6%. Europe traded sub-par […]

A relatively quiet night in Asia with China PMI (51.8%) marginally under the April  52.2% reading. Although this had a short-term influence just ahead of lunch but it really did not alter the bounce and we closed the session marginally better. Hang Seng however, was lower on the day closing down 0.37%, which actually was not a bad […]