Speculation is, at last, starting to rise that the HK$/US$ peg could break. The all-powerful governments are suddenly being seen as no so powerful. The massive dollar rally that our model has been forecasting is rather straight-forward. The higher the US$ rises, the more deflation will be exported to economies that are out of sync […]

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, your real estate cycle turned up from 1955. It does not match the Case-Shiller index which peaked in 1890s and bottomed in 1920 and then began to rally after 1940 into the 1955 period. Something seem strange with that index given the huge Florida real estate bubble which burst in 1927. Can you […]

The fear has been that Iran will start dumping oil now that the sanctions have been lifted. Thus, crude has been falling out of bed in a nightmare scenario. The fact that Crude was below $35 and then rallied to close above it for the 2015 year-end closing was a warning that the long-term may […]

QUESTION: Greetings Mr Armstrong and thank you for your excellent blog! I have recently started reading Benoit Mandelbrot’s The Misbehaviour of Markets in which he states that stock prices probably isn’t predictable in any useful sense of the term (p. 6). I recall that you have stated that stock prices can be predicted but not […]

Portugal is starting to bail-in banks. The fascinating aspect that nobody seems to see is that this is a total failure of socialism. The U.S. Federal Reserve was formed in 1913, with the shareholders being the banks, to provide the cash needed to prevent bank failures. To stimulate the economy when the banks could not […]

I have warned that 2017 will be the political year from hell. What I am illustrating here is the link between a sovereign debt crisis and the Revolutionary Cycle. In 1933, Roosevelt came to power in the USA and turned the country toward socialism. That same year, 1933, brought Hitler and Mao to power. So 1934 […]

With Japan closed (Coming of Age Day) we were forced, yet again, to watch the excitement unfold on the Chinese exchange. Most of the talk was on the foreign exchange market where the off-shore currency quote (CNH) saw a huge jump (940bp) on the Hong Kong overnight quote to a 6.5850 (last seen +1.5% against […]

Japan is closed today, but the selling has begun in New Zealand and Australia. We have an opportunity for today to form the initial low for right now. This suggests that last week may provide a temp low close. We do have a Weekly Bearish in Shanghai at 3060850 which will be critical support for […]

The closing for the euro at 10869 provided the long-term Yearly Bearish Reversal that we have cited throughout the year: “We have Yearly Bearish Reversals at 11645 and 10365. So the 116 level will remain as reactionary resistance this year and the 10365 level is key support just below the current low of 10460.” The […]

QUESTION: Marty, Thank you for the WEC. The more I reflect on my notes the more I begin to understand you really opened my eyes to see the world much differently. So you said we would go down first and then flip. You also warned that it was not yet conclusive between the Sling Shot […]