Country Analysis United Kingdom The probability of the United Kingdom joining EMU at the start date is very high! The political shift from conservative to Labour in Britain has suddenly changed the course of the nation. The new Prime Minister, Tony Blair, will be up for the post of head of the EC in 1998. […]

Country Analysis Sweden The probability of Sweden joining EMU by the start date remains very low due to primarily to public opposition. Sweden’s huge budget deficit last year was widely viewed as the stumbling-block to any hope of early membership in the single currency. Recently, Sweden has been more successful in its fiscal consolidation program, […]

Country Analysis Spain The probability of Spain joining EMU by the start date is questionable at this time. Nevertheless, Spain has made the most impressive progress over the past several months of steering its economy towards meeting EMU criteria. It is unlikely that Spain would enter EMU without Portugal. Therefore, to some extent these two […]

Country Analysis Portugal   The probability of Portugal joining EMU from the start remains questionable at best. There is a possibility that Portugal could be in the first round based upon economic conditions. There is also a potential for gold sales to help bring its debt ratio into line. Overall, Portugal’s GDP growth is currently […]

Country Analysis Netherlands The probability of the Netherlands joining EMU from the start date remains very high. The Dutch have displayed the most robust economic performance on the Continent over the past 4 years. While we do have some concerns that this may peak out by 1998, GDP growth in 1997 should come in around […]

Country Analysis Luxembourg The probability of Luxembourg joining EMU at the start date remains quite high. Luxembourg easily meets all five criteria for EMU and undoubtedly will make the first cut to be considered as a founding member. Luxembourg has continued to display real economic growth of 1% over and above the EU as a […]

Country Analysis Italy   The probability of Italy joining EMU from the start date remains low but the current government is striving to meet this target objective. The people of Italy also seem to be very enthusiastic believing that they stand everything to gain any little to lose.The Italian government has made impressive progress over […]

Country Analysis Ireland The probability of Ireland joining EMU from the beginning date remains quite high. Nevertheless, the close relationship of Ireland and Britain does pose somewhat of a problem for the future of Ireland and its committment to EMU. Certainly, Ireland continues to perform very well on its economic fiscal front. However, Ireland’s debt/GDP […]

Country Analysis Greece The probability of Greece joining EMU from the beginning remains quite high in the long-run but impossible for 1999. There is little doubt that Greece has been the last man in the 100 yard dash for the brass ring (EMU), this nation has made remarkable progress on the economic front. The political […]

Country Analysis Germany The probability of Germany joining EMU at start date is probabily UNQUESTIONABLE. Afterall, if Germany does NOT qualify, there will be no EMU. Still it is important to note that without fudging the books itself, Germany would NOT meet its own criteria for which it fought so hard and long to insure.Chancellor […]