QUESTION: Martin – Given your compelling elucidation of the business cycle (which remains ineluctable even with central bank and regulatory distortion of money and markets), the avg annual return targets set by pension and retirement plans seems absurd. CalPERS had an annual bogey of 8% to meet via its active management. Even in a rapidly-growing economy […]

The 1840 Presidential Election took place in the midst of a great depression that was set in motion by State Sovereign Defaults after Andrew Jackson shut down the Bank of the United States, which acted as the central bank. There, the incumbent Democrat, President Martin Van Buren suffered a devastating loss to the new unified […]

It was a mixed story in Asia today with the Nikkei still cooling after its recent performance, but given Toshiba’s performance, -3.5% again today – having missed its publishing deadline, certainly did not help confidence. The Nikkei ended the session down almost 0.5%, but we do have the Tankan to be released later this evening; […]

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; At the WEC you said the Fed would allow its balance sheet to eventually shrink, it was trapped and could not sell off its holdings. Yellen seems to have come out and said the same thing. Is this advice you have given in Washington? XM ANSWER: What Yellen has said is that the […]

QUESTION: What should readers of your blog like myself invest in before this whole government bubble bursts? It seems to me that when it does burst, equities and bonds will crash at the same time. Thanks and I look forward to hearing back. RL ANSWER: Do not put equities in the same boat with bonds. […]

A little profit-taking in the Nikkei today ahead of the FED semi-annual address was to be expected but todays price fall was probably more than most expected. The Nikkei declined 1.15% in todays trading with more concerns over the alluded slowed down after Finance Minister (and deputy Prime Minister) Taro Aso remarked it may take […]

  Trump has surrounded himself with a few people who believe that a new Bretton Woods conference will be necessary and they wrongly believe that a return to a gold standard will be beneficial. What they fail to comprehend is that we have had many gold standards in the past and they all failed. Why? […]

Asia benefited from new record highs in the US and really set the pace for the end of the week. The Nikkei was certainly the star performer adding 2.5% on the day taking the index to 19,400 with many talking the psychological 20k is next weeks target number. The JPY suffered against the USD falling […]

Asia was split today with the Nikkei not managing to move out of first gear – at least during the Asia session – but saw the Yen lose its haven status. The volatile Japanese data for Machinery Orders was released better than the 3.1% expected figure at +6.7% (against a previous -5.1%) did not really […]

All core Asian indices closed higher today even as energy prices fell another 1% in todays trading. The Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai all closed +0.5% firmer on the day. Currencies were well behaved with the JPY playing around the 112 figure for the majority of the day. The dollar index (DXY) broke above the […]