Fischer Black and Myron Scholes won the Nobel Prize for Economics. Scholes was  involved with Long-Term Capital Management that blew up on that formula. The fund, which started operations with $1 billion of investor capital, was extremely successful in the first years, with annualized returns of over 40%. However, following the 1997 East Asian financial […]

It is interesting how people are married to a single idea and from that position they attack anything that negates that belief. The object of research is to DISCOVER causes and effects – to not support a predetermined outcome. Anyone can do that by selecting isolated data points. For centuries people assumed that all disease […]

Copyright January 7th, 2013 All Rights Reserved       By There was a discovery made in 1772 near Vilui, Siberia of an intact frozen woolly rhinoceros. Here we had a prehistoric animal intact. This was followed by the more famous discovery of a frozen mammoth in 1787. You may be shocked, but these discoveries […]

Copyright January 7th, 2013 All Rights Reserved The climate of the earth is anything but regular with every year a repeat of the last. The White Earth Effect is the realization that what would happen if the earth was entirely covered in snow and ice. The bottom line – the Earth would then reflect the […]

I really do not understand why people insist that HYPERINFLATION must take place. That ASSUMES government will print to meet its unfunded obligations rather than just change laws and fail to meet promises. They are cutting entitlements already. Yes Rome debased its currency to the point that its worth was 1/50th of its former value. […]

Star Trek is here. One of the explanations behind the long wave in the business cycle was put forth by Schumpeter. He argued that a new technology appears and furthers the advancement of the economy in great waves of innovation such as the Electricity, Telegraph, Railroad, Automobile, Airplanes, and the Internet. Will Tractor Beams be […]

2014 is the next big turning point. That means we either get a high or a low, We did NOT achieve a Yearly Bullish Reversal at the end of 2012. We need a monthly closing ABOVE 14280.00 to signal a 2014 high. The failure to elect the Yearly Bullish Reversal is a caution that we must remain […]

The government is already preparing for the the wave of civil unrest that will hit the USA shore starting in 2014. They have been labelled in a West Point report as “a racist/white supremacy movement, an anti-federalist movement and a fundamentalist movement.” While the White Power groups have lost a lot of members, they have never […]

Real Estate is a difficult market to forecast because it is so localized. The primary trend that emerges which we observed through a couple of decades of monitoring on an international scale was essentially the same pattern that takes place with the rise and fall of nations. As I have tried to explain that there […]

Copyright Martin Armstrong all rights reserved January 12th, 2013 A lot of people who insist upon a return to the gold standard hate my guts. Others claim I have betrayed them because I do not support that view. There is a huge difference between theory and reality and indeed Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand applies meaning […]