Computer models typically fail for the same reason why human forecasting from a gut personal perspective becomes a joke. In both cases, if there is no experience with the past, neither can possibly forecast the future. Such models have failed because they lack the historical database on a global scale. How is it possible to […]

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong, I think this would help readers. I kind of don’t get it. How does the decrease in international velocity of money lead to the youth not having jobs? I don’t see the causation. — Cheers, PC ANSWER: The VELOCITY of money is how fast people are spending and using money – its turnover rate. The […]

I have been doing a lot of interviews in Germany, from TV and radio, to newspapers and magazines. It is clear that they are starting to get the message that this is not about opinion. Every economist has recognized that there is a business cycle. The approach has been starkly different from medicine. Instead of […]

There is little doubt that people are now calling for a debt crisis in European sovereign debt. When we began warning that this crisis would arrive by 2015 before the 2016 Presidential elections, it appeared strange, but now seems to be old hat. The key is that this has been the forecast of our computer, […]

I have been warning that the governments of the West are in severe trouble. We face the worst economic crisis, perhaps in modern history, with the distinct risk of moving into a state of Economic Totalitarianism. The governments are well aware of the Economic Confidence Model (ECM). Many people have questioned, “Why have they not killed you?” […]

The reaction rally in the Euro appears to be on schedule. The March low at 10458 held during April, so at the very least that implies a 2-3 month reaction rally. Bank dealing desks have reported to us that their trading lines have been cut. We previously reported that we suspected the ECB had asked […]

QUESTION: I’m having trouble reconciling your call between the next downturn (due to start in 2015.75 and your call on the Dow potentially doubling or more.  Aren’t equities historically a very good predictor of the economy?  Or do you think this time will be different dynamics driving the downturn (cyclical) vs. the rally in the […]

The current trend in Europe towards negative interest rates amounts to taxing whatever cash you have left after paying 50% in taxes. The bond auctions are starting to show signs that people will wake up and see what is going on. The incredible fact is that now, about 30% of all government debt in Europe […]

At the beginning of the year, we warned that the share market did not show any signs of breaking out to the upside before May, and that there was still a risk of a correction but foreign capital inflows would temper any decline. So far, that has proved to be correct. Nevertheless, we still should get that […]

To make it clear, nothing has changed. A bull market is something that rises in terms of all currencies. The paper dollar and gold are ending up on the same side of the fence with this war on cash that is brewing. J.P. Morgan is looking to charge money to people who have cash on […]