One of the most fascinating aspects of market/economic behavior is how the majority MUST be wrong in order to fuel the movement. There are loads of articles and forecasts questioning the recovery and how the world will collapse into a black hole. But if everyone is short dollars/long gold it will never happen. Tons […]

QUESTION: Martin, Contrary to the sensationalism of this article, does the inversion basically just mean that gold is going down and the U.S. Dollar is going up? ANSWER: When gold is money, it obviously declines during a boom purchasing less as stocks and real estate rise. When the business cycle turns down, then WHATEVER is money […]

Here is our 1996 forecast for long-term interest rates that we put out with the dollar low in 1995. We warned that interest rates would bottom on the Pi Cycle 31.4 Years from the 1981 high. That would be followed by a very sharp rally in rates into 2015.75. This was all part of the […]

QUESTION: Hi Marty, Has the ECM failed to predict events in the past? If so, which ones and were you able to modify to address the flaw? If not, what event(s) would need to occur to disprove the validity of the ECM? Best Regards, Kyle ANSWER: No. It is a composite of everything, not anything […]

QUESTION: “So Deutsche Bank is bankrupt and US investment and commercial banks are at big risk from rising yields, but all the stock prices are still going up because people will trust owning Goldman or Barclays stocks over owning government bonds???” ANSWER: I seriously doubt that bank stocks will do well. During the Sovereign Debt […]

  Resolving Globally Active, Systemically Important, Financial Institutions A joint paper by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Bank of England   10 December 2012           Resolving Globally Active, Systemically Important, Financial Institutions Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Bank of England     Executive summary   The financial crisis […]

The rise in interest rates will have a major impact upon commercial and investment banks. Believe it or not, their models are incapable of forecasting major changes in trend. They are far too short-term oriented and are created by quants with no real historical debt. That was the subject of When Genius Failed: The Rise and […]

Gold tumbled about 3% after positive US jobs data sent the dollar rallying and rekindled worries the Federal Reserve could be tempted to scale back its monetary stimulus later in the year. I have warned that the US economic outlook is bullish into 2015.75. The dollar will rise and that will help turn the US […]

QUESTION: Today employment came with 195K. 1- If Europe is imploding, China slowing, Emerging markets slowing, is the US employment story sustainable? 2- After the governments bond collapse beyond 2015.75, could USA devalue the dollar and make a combination of bond default with a new currency? 3- Is physical gold in the allocated form in a […]

We have received numerous requests from old institutional clients that they need help on asset allocation. Even the famous All Weather Bridgewater Fund used by pension funds is under water. The asset allocation modeling that we have done for institutional clients over the years is adopting the most dramatic changes how portfolios should be restructured […]