Country Analysis Italy   The probability of Italy joining EMU from the start date remains low but the current government is striving to meet this target objective. The people of Italy also seem to be very enthusiastic believing that they stand everything to gain any little to lose.The Italian government has made impressive progress over […]

Country Analysis Ireland The probability of Ireland joining EMU from the beginning date remains quite high. Nevertheless, the close relationship of Ireland and Britain does pose somewhat of a problem for the future of Ireland and its committment to EMU. Certainly, Ireland continues to perform very well on its economic fiscal front. However, Ireland’s debt/GDP […]

Country Analysis Greece The probability of Greece joining EMU from the beginning remains quite high in the long-run but impossible for 1999. There is little doubt that Greece has been the last man in the 100 yard dash for the brass ring (EMU), this nation has made remarkable progress on the economic front. The political […]

Country Analysis Germany The probability of Germany joining EMU at start date is probabily UNQUESTIONABLE. Afterall, if Germany does NOT qualify, there will be no EMU. Still it is important to note that without fudging the books itself, Germany would NOT meet its own criteria for which it fought so hard and long to insure.Chancellor […]

Country Analysis France The probability of France joining EMU from the start date remains quite high despite the fact that the political winds within the nation are starting to blow in the direction of both the socialists and communists and away from conservatives. Still, joining EMU may been seen more emotionally rather than economically suggesting […]

Country Analysis Finland   The probability of Finland joining EMU by the start date remains questionable. Finland is the perhaps the most enthusiastic European nation when it comes to EMU of all the Scandinavian nations. Finland joined the Exchange Rate Mechanism in October 1996 thus removing all remaining economic obstacles to early membership of EMU. […]

Country Analysis Denmark The probability of Denmark joining EMU by the first start date remains quite low. The primary reason for this outlook is due to the fact that Denmark has an opt-out clause. Based upon its economic performance, Denmark would qualify for EMU by 1999. Economic growth in Denmark should reach 3% in 1997. […]

Country Analysis Belgium The probability for Belgium joining EMU at the start date remains quite high, despite its failure on debt criteria. Belgium’s economic growth has been less than expected due to a large extent to the general poor eonomic conditions within Europe as a whole – particularly involving France and Germany. With GDP growth […]

Country Analysis Austria   The probability of Austria making the first cut for EMU remains quite high. Austria’s rising debt burden remains a major concern for the future of this nation. Nevertheless, the close political and monetary ties between Austria and Germany will result in a high probability that Austria will be in the first […]

The deal at the ECB shows what they themselves think of government debt. They are accepting Cypriot bonds as collateral for loans. At the ECB, a 10 year bond of a member is discounted to 29% of its face value. Interesting how the ECB does not consider government debt as really “quality” for borrowing.