Richard Cantillon 1680-1734 Richard Cantillon was an Irish international banker. Thanks to the financial backing of Brydges and Decker, Cantillon became an established banker. He was a man of great intellect, was well traveled, and spoke several languages. He knew people such as Montesquieu and Voltaire. His travels gave him contacts through which Cantillon was able […]

Only about half of U.S. states met their forecasts for withheld taxes in February after taxpayers made last-minute financial moves in 2012 for fear of having to pay higher federal tax rates in 2013 that befuddled politicians. Tax revenues rose about 5.7% during the last quarter as people took profits and companies moved forward bonuses […]

The economists are still failing to grasp what is taking place. The job growth that has surprised everyone is all PRIVATE sector taking the rate from 7.9% to 7.7%. This does not impact government jobs that we will start to see be reduced. This is not a fantastic number, but it illustrates how the pessimism […]

Question: Can you clarify your statement: “German short-term rates went negative showing people were willing to pay Germany to hold their money. This is part of the whole shift in capital from PUBLIC to PRIVATE” The movement internally within Europe is is showing that capital starts to move from one currency to another as CONFIDENCE […]

The Libor Fixing Scandal of interest rates has shown precisely what I wrote about in Behind The curtain. I have personally witnessed the trading mentality of the commodities trader from the ’70s consume Wall Street when it began with the PhiBro takeover of the bond trading house Solomon Brothers – the mentor of so much […]

The Dow Jones Industrials has rallied in the face of incredible skepticism with a litany of reasons why it shouldn’t be happening, that are of course all domestic oriented. This is fantastic for it shows the market is NOT historically at a high. Bubbles come when the vast majority claim the rally will never end. What is […]

Understanding correlations is important. EVERYTHING fluctuates! There is absolutely nothing that remains constant. You MUST understand that correlations are NOT one for one, and often show changes in advance of turns. It is a lot to keep track of but this is why I try to post a global view to help you see the […]

The Dow makes new highs. Sorry: This is an international market NOT simply domestic. The key to REAL forecasting is global NEVER in isolation. You simply cannot forecast ANYTHING in isolation. Now the gurus will come out claiming to have called it as they always do. Just ask how? This model has been unbelievable on […]

We have defined inflation in our Glossary as: Inflation  – Normally defined as the rate of percentage increase on an annual basis within the general price level.  Most often calculated from the rate of change in the CPI index. This is further defined by government as the rise in the price of goods and services. However, […]

US Colonial Courthouse Philadelphia   Why Innocent People Plead Guilty (by Judge Rakoff) Hammurabi Legal Code – 1780BC Blackstone – Commentary on the Laws of England Magna Carta Body of Liberties 1641 Mass Bay Laws & Liberties of 1648 Mass. Bay English Bill of Rights 1689 Declaration of Independence Constitution of the United States   United […]