Asia was a buzz this morning having heard verbal intervention in support of further stimulus and possible future tax cuts. This took the core indices from lower to over 5% higher at one stage. The turnaround in China has fuelled confidence around the world helped by positive Italian news and a sway of M+A activity. […]

As many as 670,000 people protested in London to call for a second Brexit referendum. Our computer is showing that a second referendum will vote to remain but this is most likely because they will rig the vote. This is in conflict with our economic model which shows that BREXIT should still win. Keep in […]

The Sovereign Debt Crisis in China among the provisional governments is alive and well. The off-balance sheet government liabilities in the regions amounted to an estimated 40 trillion yuan which is almost $6 trillion. Some are calling this a “gigantic credit risk” which is a hidden liability. This represents 60% of  GDP which bypasses the […]

A mixed session in Asia today, probably following the last minute sell-off seen in the US markets. Although most markets opened positive, Chinese indices could not join the party. The domestic data was mixed solid a consumer inflation release, but that was off-set by poor producer inflation. Viewed as negative forward looking data the news […]

It is really mindblowing how politicians simply refuse to admit a mistake with the refugees and reverse course. Merkel has dug in her heels in over this issue and it is just not going to get better. From the outset, I warned that in an economic decline, the last thing you do is accept immigrants. […]

  QUESTION: Hi Marty, Can you help us better understand the dynamics of the sovereign debt crisis as it relates to US Treasuries? I know we are in a global debt crisis, which will also impact US Treasuries but it seems like short treasuries is the current consensus (I believe they are currently at the biggest […]

QUESTION: Marty; Your directional changes are amazing. They signal a change but it can be a turn as well as a sudden blast to the upside. You also mention that this is the worst you have ever seen personally in 40 years on the private blog. Could you elaborate? Thank you for being here. There are […]

A somewhat unconvincing day for Asia with no market really standing out from the crowd. Even with Trade Talks hitting all of the papers, the markets look to be dismissing much of the hype. Yesterday was a good example of an optimistic bounce, but the trend remains firmly lower as capital leaves the recent speculation […]

Just when you thought President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was really off the reservation, he suddenly appears off the planet. Erdogan has appointed HIMSELF as chairman of Turkey’s Sovereign Wealth Fund and got rid of the entire management staff. It looks like Erdogan now thinks he can force the free market to do as he commands if he […]

QUESTION:  Hello Martin … I follow emerging markets closely and one thing I note is that the size of the sovereign forex-denominated debt burdens are quite small relative to GDP except in the case of Argentina (48%). Everybody else, including Turkey and Indonesia) is 11% or less. How can you have a debt crisis if […]