The U.S. real estate market has turned for the top end has peaked. Luxury homes for the top 5% are now off by 2%. In my personal search, I have been looking at homes in Florida for the past year. Some of the high-end homes they showed me on the beach were still on the […]

Switzerland has completely capitulated its historic safe-haven status to the entire world. Switzerland was born from a tax revolt against the Hapsburg dynasty in Austria. The tax collector made William Tell shoot an apple off his son’s head with an arrow. Switzerland then remained neutral in war and religion, serving as a safe-haven for those who […]

We warned last February that the cornerstone of the EU — the freedom of movement to create the United States of Europe — would collapse. This effort to create a borderless Europe became known as the Schengen Agreement and was signed on June 14, 1985 (1985.452) between five of the then ten member states of the EU. […]

This is a special report that so many have been asking for as we head into this turning point in 2014. The Cycles of War is a major research effort we have undertaken over the years to gauge the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city-states. The War Cycle has its origins in two primary categories. First there is the traditional concept of international conflict with one nation invading another. This has been going on for centuries. However, there is a second source that is as vital as the first and is often even more devastating economically. This is the internal conflict of civil unrest that often leads to revolution. Naturally, revolution can be very serious for it was the source in modern times of the American and French Revolutions, the Russian Revolution, and the rise of Mao in China. It is certainly arguable that civil unrest presents a greater systemic risk than international conflict.

It is vital to understand this cycle and what it means for herein lies the fate of gold and the Dow Jones Industrial Index not to mention the Euro and European markets. This report covers the world including the cycles of war with respect to China and Russia in addition to the U.S., Japan, and Europe.

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Donald Trump has surged to 36% in the polls, which is driving the political pundits crazy. After more than 30 years of dealing directly with politicians around the world, I must say one thing: politicians will NEVER admit a mistake. No matter what, they will always follow a single course simply because they declared that direction from […]

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, a member of the Popular Party (PP), announced shortly before the general election (expected to be on December 20) that a record fall in unemployment took place. Looking closely at the statistics reveals that the missing unemployed have emigrated someplace else. Clearly, there are fewer Spaniards contributing to social insurance than before. Only the number of seasonal […]

Asia caught the end of the US session this morning as all three core markets responded with falling prices. The Nikkei performed worse of all losing 2.4%, while the Shanghai and Hang Seng returned -1.3% and -0.9% respectively. European markets attempted to bounce after yesterdays declines but a non-farms payrolls number spurred the US but at […]

To understand what is really behind the curtain regarding the Middle East, ISIS, Turkey, and the USA’s strategic attempt to reduce Russia’s control over energy to Europe, we must start back in 2009 when Qatar proposed a pipeline plan to Assad to send its natural gas to Europe via Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Jordan. Assad […]

Continued speculation that additional official support would be available next week in China supported the Shanghai Stock Index yet again. The strong close (of over +1.3% higher) in Asia has been short-lived as the events in Europe have reversed most, if not all, of today’s move (as seen this evening in futures trading). Initially, all […]

QUESTION: Your energy model turned negative on the daily level just before the rally in the euro. That meant the market was then oversold if I understood your explanations. Thanks for a great conference PK ANSWER: Yes, the fact that we came down to a cluster of reversals not to mention the year pivot at […]