The Federal Reserve yielded to international pressure, making the very same mistake that it made during 1927. Back then, there was a secret meeting and the Fed agreed to lower U.S. rates to try to help Europe to deflect capital inflows back to Europe. The exact opposite unfolded in the aftermath when even more money abandoned Europe […]

The Japanese government’s economic revival strategy, which has been dubbed “Abenomics”, has proven to be a failure. We warned that the Sovereign Debt Crisis will begin in Europe, then hit Japan, and in the process will push the dollar to record highs which will inject deflation into the U.S. economy. Moreover, only a rising dollar […]

John Boehner has been the most ruthless Speaker of the House perhaps since Henry Clay. He is notorious for targeting people within the Republican Party who do not do as he commands. Now, with the debt ceiling issue coming back for September 30, Boehner has no trust and even those closest to him are having […]

The Schengen Agreement was to be the cornerstone of the entire euro proposition. We just warned that this freedom of movement would begin to come under pressure with this turning point:“As the economy turns down very hard after 2015.75, we are more likely than not going to see the freedom of movement in Europe fragment and that […]

Asian equities traded on the heavy side today (Nikkei -1.63% and Shanghai -2.67%), and so followed Europe. However, the U.S. market appeared most nervous of all world indices, even though they ended the day only down -0.4%. Obviously, the Fed’s decision is the main topic of conversation with Retail Sales tomorrow only gaining a mention, but these were reasons given for the tightest trading range seen in […]

  QUESTION: Martin, Can you go into more detail about the time frame for global cooling, and its ramifications, what to do to prepare oneself etc… Obviously this is going to affect everyone, everywhere. craig ANSWER: According to our models, this downturn should be greater than the last one in the 1700s. Volatility rises, so the swings […]

It was a mixed session for Asia yesterday after what has been a very volatile week. The talk remains as to what China’s next move would/should be and “if” the Fed will move next week. This been the most awaited Fed decision in years and has been the hot topic just about everywhere. It was a clearer […]

QUESTION: Thank you for your fascinating blog. I thoroughly enjoy reading your analysis on social, political, financial and historical topics. i would like to make a couple points with questions and get your analysis or feedback on these. First point: You describe that post 2015.75 (Big Bang), you expect a peak in bonds (safe haven) […]

  “The Forecaster” translated into French becomes “l’ORACLE”, which to me is Warren Buffet’s tagline. This demonstrates the difference in attitude among the French citizens and U.S. citizens. Political manipulated polls aside, here the review begins, “If you are naturally pessimistic about our future…” This is the reason why I agreed to allow a German film crew to […]

Asia saw some very strong gains on rumors of renewed Chinese intervention with the Nikkei producing its strongest one-day rise since 2008 (1,343 points +7.7%). The Chinese markets reacted to the news rather late yesterday. Europe walked in to the jubilation and saw encouraging market gains in the morning session. By mid-afternoon, the U.S. market […]