The other side of 2015.75 is not going to be pretty. The German industrial production report dropped 4% from July to August versus an expected decline of 1.5%. This is a hugely alarming month-on-month drop, which happens to be the largest drop in the past five years. This new revelation is shocking since there was […]

The day for equities peaked in Europe with most core markets up around 1%. The US changed the mood early in the session as the Biotechs took their toll on the NASDAQ and within a short time the index was 1% lower. Main talking point was the weakness of the US Dollar and the recovery […]

The BBC reported that NATO has issued a warning to Russia calling for an end to its air strikes that are targeting U.S. trained forces who have been trying to overthrow the Syrian government. Quite frankly, the U.S. policy to get rid of Assad because he is supported by Russia is absurd and seriously risks international war. Even if […]

The market reaction to the U.S. data on Friday has confused many with both stocks and bonds bouncing into the close. Overnight, the Asian equity markets have continued the positive response. This has also carried into the European opening but interestingly only for equities. In the reaction in the bond markets, we have seen U.S. 10s remain just […]

QUESTION: Mr, Armstrong; I recently read an article claiming to be a case study that it was somehow the French hyperinflation that led to the revolution. It seems that as you say they are again mixing facts to support a rise in gold with hyperinflation. I am a collector of French monetary history and the paper […]

QUESTION:  i read your latest piece on gold…..i see your rationale for inflation not causing gold to rise but rather an erosion in confidence of government so if i am reading you right you see a rise in gold in a semi-rapid fashion for the next few years as the confidence in government declines now […]

QUESTION: Does war boost gold prices? MM ANSWER: No. The only impact that war will have on gold is confined to either prolonged inflation or the uncertainty of the victor — the hedge against government survival. War by itself is a non-event. Gold will rise ONLY when there is uncertainty because the currency of the government will not survive a […]

The peak in real estate may have arrived. At the same time, this reflects the shift away from government bonds. Blackstone Group LP, the largest real estate fund to assemble, has come right on point. Blackstone raised $15.8 billion, creating the largest real estate fund in history. As we have warned, this reflects investment capital shifting into real […]

Asian equities further consolidated the gains today, adding an additional 1-2% on yesterday’s closes. In Europe, early efforts to rally were muted and eventually turned negative as the U.S. session got underway. Dow lost all momentum, and at one stage, had losses of around 200 points. However, the uncertainty within the markets continued when we […]

The unleashing of Russian firepower in Syria in support of the Syrian government came precisely on the day of the Economic Confidence Model. I have come to learn from observing this model that major world events, whatever the major focus may be, appear to line up with the ECM. This target has been huge for […]