QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read this time its different by Rogoff. While it is interesting about sovereign defaults, he clearly does not go back into ancient times or more than a few hundred years. If anyone would know when the first such default took place it must be you. Any idea? ANSWER: Yes. The first such […]

According to Nigel, Portugal’s refusal to allow a democratically elected party to take office because of their anti-euro views is the “final straw” for the failed European project. Brussels has turned the EU into a dictatorship because they reject any process that disagrees with them. Like all dictators, they argue that they know better and […]

The Nikkei did see a solid performance today closing up +0.67%, but the guess is that large players will remain on the sidelines until after the BOJ at the end of the week. Shanghai and HS were heavy and even dragged the ASX (Australian Index) lower in late trading as talk returned to a slowing global […]

Nikkei closed down almost 1% whilst the rest of Asian equities mopped around unchanged. Not too much to write about but people are talking about the possible BOJ action at the end of the week and still about the PBoC decision last week. A couple of dealers mentioned the JPY weakness and the markets negative […]

As expected Asia opened with a strong bid following the PBoC announcement, with the Nikkei over 19k. This did not last however as all indices turned lower towards the end of the trading day. The Nikkei closed on the days lows but still positive +121pts (+0.65%), Shanghai dipped briefly into negative territory just ahead of the […]

Far too many people have underestimated the changes in the global economy. This year’s conference will focus on the significant instability risks that are associated with the economic slowdown in China, and the crisis in the emerging markets. This will impact the German exports, and the refugee crisis in Europe will only help to push the economic […]

Aegina  is the prominent Greek island in the Saronic Gulf, 27 km (17 mi) from Athens. Traditionally, the island derives the name from Aegina who was the mother of the hero Aeacus and the island is named after her since this is where she gave birth to her son who became its king. Aegina was […]

COMMENT: Hi Marty, I’m another Englishman who is an avid reader of your blog and am very much looking forward to your ECM conference material later this year. As a European pouring thorough the continental news we are definitely seeing a reinforcing cycle of breakdown in government over the past few weeks and months. It […]

QUESTION: Hello Mr Armstrong, I see that you’re about to launch Socrates, which seems to be a lifetime achievement. Congratulations. I have a question : it seems that, for now, it will deal with economic trends and cycles. Do you plan to extend Socrates to geopolitical and domestic social and political affairs ? Even on […]

The IMF has come out and warned that Saudi Arabia may go bankrupt within the next five years if the government maintains its current spending habits. Some emails are asking if the IMF is now copying our projections for they have the same timing. Who knows. I would assume the economic numbers are the numbers, but they […]