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Market Talk – January 13, 2017

A healthy bounce for the Nikkei ahead of the weekend closing up +0.8% but we only saw a small reversal in the Yen. The currency needs to move at the same time but in opposite directions in order to maximize trend. JPY was last seen this evening at 114.50, almost unchanged for the cash close. […]

China Steps in Against Bitcoin

The Chinese government has been strengthening requirements for citizens by converting their yuan. With Trump coming into office, China fears that lower values for the yuan will turn into a trade war even if the government is not actively trying to depreciate the yuan for trade. Conversions of yuan are already subject to a quota or […]

Market Talk – January 12, 2017

It was not a pretty site for most stock markets today with much of the mainstream media blaming Trump. The first press conference will probably be remembered for the resulting stock market volatility. As Asia opened the mood was heavy but having watched futures markets take much of the immediate repercussions cash tended to take […]

Bonds v Shares

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong As a long time reader I rarely see you mention the possible long term benefits of also holding corporate bonds. I understand the obvious down side to government bonds and the reason for stocks to move higher, but since bond holders get paid before stock holders when things go bad would […]

Currency v Language

QUESTION: Do language and currencies move in line with each other? Is language a leading indicator to currency i.e. Spanish in California. Will they create their own currency if they separate from the states? ANSWER: There is a direct link between currency and language. When I was doing interviews in Europe, I explained the euro would […]

Market Talk – January 11, 2017

Although the Asian cash markets were reasonably strong today we did see a slight wobble in the Shanghai index. Japan cash closed +0.35% and Hang Seng even better at +0.85% but China’s main index closed down -0.8% all in relatively low volume day. However, this was ahead Trump’s first major press conference. Most of the […]

Bitcoin – Is it Sustainable?

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong: I have been to the Orlando conference and probably read every single one of your blogs since about a year ago and now wanted to ask you about Bitcoin and/or other alternative currencies. If I am not mistaken, this topic is not something that you have really touched upon. Recent spike in […]

Understanding Performance – Socrates v Medallion?

QUESTION: Marty; I invested in your Deutsche Bank hedge fund and the performance was about 3 times that of even the Renaissance’s Medallion fund. Your employees said for the public fund you closed positions early because you were making too much in 1998. Yet that was still about 3 times what Medallion produced in 1998. Medallion is closed […]

Market Talk – January 10, 2017

After the holiday in Japan yesterday the JPY resumed its strong recovery and with it saw a decline in the Nikkei. The yen traded close to the 115 handle whilst the Nikkei lost 0.8% on the day. Concerns are still that the DOW continues to reject the 20k level and is having a psychological effect […]

Market Talk – January 9, 2017

The demand for safe-haven JPY returned with a vengeance today even though Japan was on a national holiday (Coming of Age Day) but in the futures markets the Nikkei lost almost 1.3%. The Yen traded stronger all day and in late US trading was seen slightly under the 116 level. Both the Shanghai and Hang […]