This week will all be about the Federal Reserve and the outlook for rates into next. The strip is pricing in additional moves already but it is the long end that is having a worrying impact on many dealers. Obviously, the recent curve movement is music for the (US) banks and insurance companies but will […]

The lobbying is off and running is super-high gear to stop the Fed from raising rates once again. Governments all over the world have a very myopic view and focused only on the next quarter, or the next election. The Reserve Bank of India also fears that the US Fed’s impending interest rise would affect the external […]

Many are now blaming Colin Kaepernick for the sharp decline in American football ratings. Kaepernick began kneeling during the national anthem in the NFL preseason as a protest of the injustices against people of color because of Trump as if he has done something. Kaepernick has continued to protest in every game this season. Now, more than […]

Today, any information ahead of something like a rate hike is seen as insider trading. But back during the 1970s going into 1981, things were different. The banks were not big proprietary traders. I would routinely get a call that the Fed would raise rates in 15 minutes. It was not that someone was trying […]

We apologize that we had to turn away more than 300 people this year because we held only one session instead of two. In 2017, we will go back to two sessions. We are hoping to find accommodation in Hong Kong during May after the French elections and then we will go back to Orlando […]

India is moving now to confiscate gold after going after the cash. Currently, each married woman is entitled to 500 grams, each unmarried woman 250 grams, and each man 100 grams of gold. Everything that goes beyond is classified as illegal possession and thus will be confiscated. There is no restriction on the possession of […]

On July 11, 2016, the 30-year bond peaked on the nearest futures at 177110. The 30-year Treasury yield fell to 2.088%, and on that day, the Swiss government actually found some real suckers to buy 50-year bonds at negative yields out to 2076. The buyers will not be around to experience the official default, so […]

QUESTION: Hello Martin, every day I read your blog. Today was about All Roads Lead to the Dollar and manipulation: First you say that the system cannot be manipulated: (“the system, which is crumbling before our eyes, cannot be manipulated. This is why BREXIT, Trump, and now Hollande in France are stepping out and Italy […]

The Nikkei closed today at its highest level for the year which included a well behaved Yen. Closing up +268 points (+1.45%) certainly puts it in good shape for the year end rally. Shanghai and Hang Seng were mutually off-set (+0.2%/-0.2%) with many just waiting for the ECB rate decision and being led by the […]

We tend to assume that the freedom of movement is confined solely to migration and travel. There are four aspects to the freedom of movement, and migration or travel is only one. Yes, we warned that the Schengen Agreement would come to an end and the European refugee crisis has enabled that decline. We warned that this agreement, […]